There are 4 NH meetings today: Sandown, Ayr and Chepstow
in the UK – plus Gowran Park in Ireland.
Looking at todays cards, it’s quite obvious that there is
something big on the horizon…
The
main meeting at Sandown is a strange mix of the impossible and the obvious –
whilst the days 3 other meetings are very low key, for a Saturday…
I’ll
double check the declarations, but there is distinct possibility that I’ll take
off tomorrow and Monday.
When
I say ‘off’ , I don’t really mean off, as I’ll be deep in study for
Cheltenham.
However the back end of last week showed me that it’s
very difficult to study for Cheltenham – and for a normal days
racing.
Anyway, I’ll confirm that anon…
As
for today: I’ve dug out 4 tips.
2 of
them are priced shorter than I would like – but I think they’ll win.
Whereas the other 2, are more like the tips you’d expect
from your favourite NH tipster 
Here’s the rationale behind them – and a few other
thoughts on the day…
Sandown
2:35
I’m
really quite keen on the chances of Ziga Boy in this…
An
ex French horse, he had a couple of runs for Alan King last season, before
starting this campaign in a handicap chase at Exeter.
He
was well fancied that day, but ran disappointingly. Presumably in need of the
run, he corrected matters on his following outing when winning well at
Wincanton.
He won that contest off a mark of 119 and was raised 9lb as a consequence..
However, that didn’t look overly punitive and he was sent off an 11/4 shot for the Mandarain chase at Newbury on his next outing.
He travelled like a dream in that race until put under a little pressure after jumping the fourth last.
He won that contest off a mark of 119 and was raised 9lb as a consequence..
However, that didn’t look overly punitive and he was sent off an 11/4 shot for the Mandarain chase at Newbury on his next outing.
He travelled like a dream in that race until put under a little pressure after jumping the fourth last.
He
still appeared to be in with every chance when blundering and unseating his
rider at the following fence.
It’s
impossible to be adamant about how he would have got on that day, but my feeling
is that he would have won.
His
next, and most recent run, was in the West Wales national lat Ffos Las.
Like most of the field, he failed to complete the course that day – and as a consequence, the handicapper has dropped him 2lb.
That means he gets to run today off a mark 2lb lower than he ran off at Newbury.
Like most of the field, he failed to complete the course that day – and as a consequence, the handicapper has dropped him 2lb.
That means he gets to run today off a mark 2lb lower than he ran off at Newbury.
I
felt he would have won that race if he’d got round – so I have to fancy him
today…
In
terms of dangers, then really only Mosspark (and the fences !) worries me.
He has the potential do be better over fences than he’s shown so far - but so too does Ziga Boy…
He has the potential do be better over fences than he’s shown so far - but so too does Ziga Boy…
0.5pt win Ziga Boy 10/3
3:10
As
impossible handicaps go, this one takes a bit of beating !
In
fact, I suspect it will be a fair bit easier to solve most of the handicaps run
at Cheltenham next week !!
The
issue is that there are numerous completely unexposed horses competing against
each other – with absolutely no way of tying their respective form lines
together.
Clearly it’s not a race that you can be adamant about –
but it is one in which I’ve got quite a strong fancy (relatively speaking
!).
I
first noticed Some Buckle when he ran in the grade 1 champion bumper at the
Punchestown festival at the end of last season. The very fact that he ran in
that race suggested that he had a fair amount of ability – and sure enough,
despite being sent off a 661/ shot, he didn’t disgrace himself.
He
was sent over hurdles first time up this season, and duly despatched some
moderate sorts at Southwell – but it’s his next 2 runs over hurdles that suggest
he is well handicapped today.
In
the first of those, he ran the now 152 rated Glingerburn to a head at Doncaster
off level weights: Some Buckle runs today off a mark of 136…
On
the second occasion, he was still in with every chance rounding the home turn,
in the trial for the Neptune Investment hurdle, run at Cheltenham at the end of
January.
On the face of it, that was a very good run again a number of horses who will be fancied for the novice events at next weeks festival. Plus, there is always the chance that Some Buckle didn’t quite get home that day…
On the face of it, that was a very good run again a number of horses who will be fancied for the novice events at next weeks festival. Plus, there is always the chance that Some Buckle didn’t quite get home that day…
The
trouble is, no matter how sweet I am on the case for Some Buckle, there is just
too many unknowns in the race, to be confident…
The
sheer number of runners is likely to make it something of a lottery –
particularly as there are a lot of front runners (which means that pace
judgement will be critical).
It
wouldn’t be a surprise to see any one of a dozen or so horses win the race – but
I think Some Buckle is one of that dozen – and his chances are better than
most.
Consequently at 14/1, I think he’s a fair bet.
0.25pt win Some Buckle 14/1
The
handicap hurdle run at 2:00 isn’t that much easier to solve – and my short list
consisted of 7 runners…
If
forced to pick one, I would probably agree with Pricewise and go for Monbeg
Theatre. However, a price of 8/1 in a race such as this, holds limited
appeal…
At
bigger odds, Kingfisher Creek (25/1) and Kilgeel Hill (20/1) aren’t without
chances…
I
think that Traffic Fluide should win the handicap chase at 4:20.
I
had half an eye on him for one of the Cheltenham handicaps – but connections
have evidently opted to go for his easier prize instead.
He
has impressed me on his two most recent runs - and I’m sure a rating of 135
under-estimates his ability.
A
best price of 6/4 is quite short – but I think it is warranted.
I
should have made Bebinns a Top Pick yesterday – I’m going not going to make the
mistake twice !
Finally, I think Rouge et Blanc is the most likely winner
of the last race on the card - though I’m not sufficiently confident to tip him
at 3/1.
I don’t know which one, but I have a suspicion that something might just get the better of him.
I don’t know which one, but I have a suspicion that something might just get the better of him.
Logically, he wins – but probably without my money on
him…
Ayr
3:55
Water Garden fist came to my attention when running in a
decent novice handicap chase, at Carlisle in December.
He
ran really well that day, to finish third to a couple of improving rivals – with
the rest of the field well behind.
His
next run was at Towcester over Christmas and he was already beaten when a bad
blunder at the third last saw him decant his jockey.
That
wasn’t a good experience and there was a chance that it would leave a mark, so I
was interested to see how he performed on his subsequent – and most recent –
outing.
That
was in a good class novice chase at Warwick at the beginning of last
month.
The
eventual one, two from that race – Cogry and Doing Fine – are both near the head
of the betting for the NH chase at Cheltenham on Tuesday, so it says much for
the performance of Water Garden , that he was able to stick with them until the
fourth last at Warwick.
He
began to weaken at that point and was ultimately passed by his 2 remaining
opponents late on.
However, he was the third best horse on the day – and the 2 horses that beat him are rated 136 and 132 respectively (plus both are progressive sorts).
However, he was the third best horse on the day – and the 2 horses that beat him are rated 136 and 132 respectively (plus both are progressive sorts).
Water Garden runs today off a rating of 121 – and I
suspect he ran slightly above that mark at Warwick.
He
was also rated as high as 133 over hurdles, when trained by David
Pipe.
In
short, he has some scope from a handicapping perspective. He is also in form –
and will be suited by today conditions.
That’s not the case for most of his rivals, so at 11/1, I
think he is worth getting involved with.
0.5pt win Water Garden 11/1
4:30
With
just 5 previous runs over hurdles, Stonebrook is the least experienced member of
todays field.
However, on just his fourth run over hurdles he was made a short priced favourite for a class 1 handicap at the Grand National meeting at Aintree, last spring.
However, on just his fourth run over hurdles he was made a short priced favourite for a class 1 handicap at the Grand National meeting at Aintree, last spring.
The
market confidence that day was as a result of easy wins in a couple of novice
hurdles – one at Newcastle and the other, at todays course, Ayr…
Those 2 victories suggested that Stonebrook was a horse
going places - and that his mark of 131 underestimated his ability.
Unfortunately, it was a case of too much, too soon with
Stonebrook at Aintree, and he was already beaten when hampered by a faller at
the second last hurdle.
He
was put away for the summer after that and didn’t reappear until last month,
when he ran in a Pertemps qualifier at Haydock.
That
race was stolen from the front by Bygones Sovereign, but Stonebrook was noted
travelling well round the outside of the field, turning in.
Ultimately, he didn’t get home that day: whether it was the lack of a recent run, or the fact he didn’t stay the 3 mile trip, is impossible to say – but I think we will see a different performance today.
Ultimately, he didn’t get home that day: whether it was the lack of a recent run, or the fact he didn’t stay the 3 mile trip, is impossible to say – but I think we will see a different performance today.
Clearly he should strip fitter for that run – but I also
think that the shorter trip will suit him better.
In
terms of his rivals, then with a number of them reverting from fencing, Tantamount looks the most dangerous – but I
really do think that Stonebrook will have too much class for him.
0.5pt win Stonebrook 9/2
Chepstow
I
feel an obligation to point out Manballandall, who runs in the final race
(5:20).
He
really should have won for us last time at Newbury – and actually picked up a
7lb weight rise for his defeat.
To
offset that, todays race looks weaker than last times, so it may well not be an
issue.
What could be an issue, is him returning to the course just 8 days after a pretty hard race.
What could be an issue, is him returning to the course just 8 days after a pretty hard race.
The
other issue is his price of 11/4…
He
could easily win – but I’m going to struggle to tip him off the higher mark at a
third of the price we got last time.
In
the previous race on the card (4:45), I’ll be keeping a close eye on Kudu
Country.
He’s
anther who I tipped last time – but he ran disappointingly over hurdles at
Ludlow.
He’s switched to fences today – and it quite a trappy race.
He’s switched to fences today – and it quite a trappy race.
He
was 9/1 early – and that did tempt me. However, he is 9/2 now – and that doesn’t
!
I’ll
still be intrigued to see if the market is right…
Gowran Park
The
best race on the card, is the handicap chase at 3:50.
The
thing that strikes me, is that there is likely to be a ridiculous amount of pace
on.
There are literally 5 or 6 horses who like to make the
running – so a few of them are going to be disappointed this afternoon
!
In
the circumstances it might pay to side with a hold up horse – and I was tempted
by Treat Yourself.
However, there is always a risk when trying to second guess pace - and the price of Treat Yourself doesn’t justify that risk.
However, there is always a risk when trying to second guess pace - and the price of Treat Yourself doesn’t justify that risk.
If
things did pan out right for them, then I could see Is Herself About and Forty
Foot Tom both running big races – but ultimately, there is just too much
guesswork, to warrant getting involved.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!
TVB.
TVB.
Tips
Early
Sandown 2:35 Ziga Boy 0.5pt win 10/3
Sandown 3:10 Some Buckle 0.25pt win 14/1
Ayr 3:55 Water Garden 0.5pt win 11/1
Ayr 4:30 Stonebrook 0.5pt win 9/2
Late
None
Mentions
Sandown 2:00 Kingfisher Creek (O )
Sandown 4:55 Rouge et Blanc (O )
Chepstow 4:45 Kudu Country (S )
Chepstow 5:20 Manballandall (C )
Gowran Park 3:50 Treat Yourself (C )
Top Picks
Sandown 4:20 Traffic Fluide
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