Monthly report - November 2014

For those of you who weren’t with the service last season, I aim to produce a monthly report at the end of each of the 5 months of the service…

Obviously, a month is not a long time in tipping – so it would be unwise to jump to too many conclusions based on such a period. However, I think it is important to keep focused on the targets and progress, and I think a monthly report helps achieve that.

To this end then, here is the report for November – the first month of the 2014-15 season:

Starting with the headline figures:

TVB tips

Total staked: 22.375pts

Total loss: 1.25pts

ROI -6%

 

The total figure, is based on getting the best generally available price at the time I issue the tip (with the stated bookmakers – including BOG, if offered).

I would hope this would be considered a ‘fair’ representation of what is achievable (with suitable commitment – and plenty of bookmaker accounts !)

In a way, this figure is unimportant to you guys…

You made whatever loss (or profit !) you made – and that is that.

Only you can decide, whether the TVB service offers ‘value’ to you (in terms of profit, education or even entertainment !).

I would be amazed if any two of you managed to achieve the same P&L figure – partially because you wont have got all of the same prices – but also because you won’t even have backed all of the same horses !

I don’t suppose many of you all back every single tip; and I’m sure that some of you backed some of the Top Picks/mentions – and maybe even some of the horses that were just discussed in the write-up…

A small loss, makes it look like a pretty dull month – but as those who followed all of those tips will know, nothing could be further from the truth !
A spectacular start saw us nearly 10pts up after the first fortnight.

However, this was followed by an equally spectacular fortnight in which we lost 10pts !

I think that is known as a roller-coaster ride !

The funny thing is, I  consciously tipped some shorter priced horses during the month, to try and avoid that roll-coaster effect.

I actually tipped 8 horses at 5/1 or less - but non of them have won.

More than that, 4 of those 8 were very well backed in the market – all things being equal, you would really have expected at least one of those to have obliged...

One potential concern is that things fell away after a good start – but I’ve spent some time looking at the selections in the first fortnight – and selections in the second fortnight – and I think that the apparent pattern was nothing more than random chance…

Part of the reason I think this, is because I like to look at the BSP of the tips I issued and compare it the advised price.

Consistently through the month, the advised price of the tips has beaten their BSP.

In fact, if you have just backed all of the tips at the advised price and layed them off on BF at BSP, you would have made just over 4pts profit (around 20%).

Assuming the market at the off, is best indicator of the chance of a horse (and historically this has always been the case), then the suggestion is that I performed my job of identifying value at the early prices, consistently throughout the month.

Simply the horses just didn’t run as well as they should have done !

The 22.375pts staked during the month were spread across 54 horses competing in 48 races.

54 tips is a lower number than I would have expected (I issued 83 tips in November last year) – and I think is a direct the result of one of the main issues identified this month.

It is becoming very difficult to tip mid-week, as the markets are just too weak and too sensitive.

In the lower class races (class 4 and 5), the bookmakers tend to set their stalls out one in a very cautious manner (with over rounds in excess of 20%) – and if any money comes for a horse, the price is immediately cut.

The situation tends to improve a little as the morning progresses and as the bookmakers get more confident in their prices - but even then, significant over rounds are maintained – and prices are fragile.

Unfortunately, I can’t see this situation changing, so I need to try and find a way round it – or just not play in these markets…

Returning to the 54 tips, then in terms of placings, they achieved the following:

1^st – 6

2^nd – 3

3^rd – 11

4^th - 3

I target 25% of the tips finishing first or second – but only achieved 17% in November, which is disappointing (particularly as the prices of a number of the tips were quite low – and a I’ve also tipped in a few small fields).

So, all in all, not brilliant.

It’s proving difficult to tip – and those horses I have tipped, haven’t run as well as I would have liked !

Yet despite that, we finished the month just over a point down – which can hardly be considered a disaster.

The worry from my perspective, is how I can turn that small loss into a reasonable profit, when it is proving so difficult to tip the horses I want, at the prices I want…

One ray of hope for the month, was provided by the Top Picks.

I only issued 7 of these during the month - but 3 of them won.

Backing them all at SP, to a level stake, would have yielded a 3pt profit, with a slightly higher profit at BSP (allowing for 5% commission).

I said at the beginning of the season, that I wanted to make more of an effort with the Top Picks – and I stand by that.

However, they do tend to get forced to the bottom of the pile, when time gets tight  (and on most days, time gets very tight !).

I honestly think they could have done even better, if I’d had the space to consider them properly on a daily basis.

Mid-week, the majority of my time issues, come from the fact that I’m consciously trying not to tip into weak markets (to give you all a reasonable chance of getting on  - and so as not to crush prices for connections).

As a consequence, I spend a significant amount of time monitoring prices and waiting for both the markets to stabilise and an acceptable price to be available.

This puts pressure both on me creating the write-up (and knowing exactly what to put in it) – and on me identifying Top Picks and other betting opportunities.

I need to decide whether the time I’m spending trying to tip in these lower class races, is time well spent. At the moment, I’m not entirely convinced it is…

In fairness, there were other issues during November that didn’t helped matters.

Obviously it takes a little while to get back into all of the routines; and I’ve also had a number of email issues (which remain – but which I can generally react to, when they do occur).

There was also the loss of my internet on the Friday of the Paddy Power meeting, which resulted in a horribly stressful 24 hour period !

As a consequence, I think it is probably right to continue with minimal changes for another month and see how things are at the end of that period.

If I feel that trying to tip in the lower class races is just taking up too much of my time, I’ll stop.

Instead you should get an improved write-up – and some additional Top Picks !

As I’ve done in previous seasons, I will shortly issue a ‘satisfaction survey’…

This year more than ever, I am keen for people to express their opinions.

I want to assess the possibility of a total over-haul of the service (I am considering the possibility of completely separating the tipping and the write-ups – for the reasons stated earlier) and so really need to know how you would all feel about that.

If you’ve filled-in a survey before, you don’t need to answer every question again – but I would very much appreciate hearing your views on a possible change of this type.

I’ll aim to get the survey out in the next day or so – and would be grateful if you could return it within a week.

TVB.