Daily write-up - Dec 11th

There are 3 NH meetings today, at Taunton, Warwick and Newcastle.

Unusually for a Thursday, there is no racing in Ireland – I’m not sure why that is (maybe everyone is busy with Christmas shopping !).

I spent a few hours last night ploughing through the form/videos for around half a dozen of today’s races – but it yielded very little..

It’s actually quite disheartening to go through a race, identify the horses you think are of most interest, and then see them all sat at the top of the market (and generally going blue on oddschecker  !).

Even the ones that only half cases can be made for, tend to have been picked up in the betting.

I guess this is the price we pay for having so much information around – and so many people sifting through it…

Ofcourse there is the chance that some of the horses I fancy the night before will drift in the betting, as the race time approaches.

In theory, that can create ‘value’ opportunities – though backing drifters is always a dangerous game (as you don’t know the reason for the drift).

That’s what has happened, to an extent, with Smart Money, which is part of the reason why he is a tip.
I’ve also got a couple of Top Picks for the day – and the obligatory handful of mentions.

Here’s the rationale…

Warwick

1:30

Smart Money is a horse that I’ve been following since his days in Ireland, when he was trained by Jim Culloty…

He won a handicap hurdle for Culloty in February 2013 – and then transferred to the stable of Venetia Williams for the start of last season.

Given an opening mark of 110 in the UK, I was sure Venetia would be able to do some damage with Smart Money – and his first run in the UK was full of promise.

He travelled like a dream in the heavy ground at Lingfield – but just didn’t manage to quite get home.

The trouble is, it was the same story on his next 2 outings – which left me scratching my head a bit…

At the beginning of March, Smart Money was put over fences, in a very hot novice handicap chase at Newbury.

He ran too freely that day, but still recorded a good performance to finish runner up.

Maybe not too surprisingly, when Smart Money reappeared this season, he was sporting a first time hood.

The hope was clearly that it would settle him down – but it didn’t really work.

Once again he travelled nicely – but once again, he didn’t get home…

Interestingly, the handicapper has dropped him 5lb for that run – which means he can get into a 0-110 rated race.

That’s the lowest class of race he has competed in during his time in the UK, which will hopefully help him.

Aside from that, we are looking for Venetia to work her magic !

I have no doubt that Smart Money has the ability to win todays race – if he runs his race.
He’s not really done that so far – and not much has obviously changed today, so we are relying on Venetia to turn things around.

That said, he really doesn’t appear to have much to beat today – and I can see the Warwick track playing to his strength (fences in quick succession and a short, flat run in).

In terms of his opponents, then I would only really fear Its  a Steal. In truth, he is the most likely winner of todays race, provided he can build on his last time out run. However, that was his first outing for 2 years, which makes him slightly susceptible to ‘bouncing’ – and he won’t appreciate the overnight rain either…

In the circumstances then, I think a bet on Smart Money (and Venetia !) can be justified…

0.5pt win Smart Money 11/2

I was really keen to put up Top Gamble in the novice handicap chase at 1:00 – but it would appear that everyone else is very keen on him as well !

In a way, that is understandable. He was supremely impressive on his chasing debut at Wetherby, where he jumped for fun and trounced a horse that won a decent race next time out.

Although he has top weight today, his rating is only 135 – and you have to think he is better than that.

At Wetherby, he looked the sort of horse who could develop into an Arkle outsider. That being the case, he is likely to end the season rated at least 150.
Simply, he could have too much class for today rivals…

There are actually a few in the race, who are quite interesting in their own right: the likes of O’Maonlai, Such a Legend and Arthurs Oak, all look capable of winning races.

As a result, I expected them to prop up the price of Top Gamble, at least to an extent.
But it hasn’t happened – his price is in free fall. 3/1 last night, is 7/4 this morning.

I doubt he can go much shorter, so I’ll make him a Top Pick and hope he drifts a bit !

I spent quite a lot of time looking at the stayers chase (2:30) – but I couldn’t reach a conclusion that I felt happy with…

I’m drawn to Ruapehu – but acknowledge it’s impossible to say whether he is well handicapped.

His jumping is also a concern at the Warwick track (the fences take a bit of negotiating).

That said, if he gets loose on the lead, he could take a bit of catching…
One who might be able to run him down, is Incentivise – but he’s not a horse I could tip, as he’s not a horse I particularly like.

The other one of potential interest is Barton Gift – though she did go out like at light on her seasonal debut and so will need to have come on massively for that.

Taunton

In the handicap hurdle at 1:10, I was half interested in Un Bleu A Laam – but that was before the favourite, Bladoun, was withdrawn from the race.

Un Bleu A Laam was an 8/1 shot at that time and it might have been worth taking a risk at that price.

He’s a potentially progressive horse, who was well backed for his seasonal debut at Chepstow but who weakened badly in the closing stages of that race.

Now he might have weakened because he needed the run (and the ground was heavy) – or he might have weakened because he had breathing issues (he was wearing a tongue tie for the fist time).

If it was the former reason, I could see him going very close today.

That said, even without Bladoun in the race, there are still 3 or 4 potential dangers.

Therefore, the current 4/1 offers very little in the way of value…

The Skyfarmer is the one that interests me most in the novice handicap chase at 2:10.

In theory he is held by Irish Cavalier, on last time out running at Ascot.
However, The Skyfarmer probably needed that run – and didn’t jump particularly well in the early part of the contest.

I could certainly see him improving sufficiently to take his revenge.

Not that this is a 2 horse race…

Henry King will likely try to make all, round a track that suits his running style.

He is however, quite exposed – and will always be vulnerable, late in a race.

Black River could bounce back from a disappointing run at Market Rasen – but I wasn’t at all impressed by him that day. Of more danger could be the Venetia trained Cold March, who is making his UK debut today; and Rally, who has his first run for Nigel Twiston Davies…

All this said, I would have been prepared to take a risk on The Skyfarmer at 4/1 (or possibly even 7/2), if it hadn’t rained at Taunton over night.
However, he’s a horse who wants a quick surface and the overnight rain could easily have scuppered his chances.
Shame…

Another one I was pretty keen on last night, was Mr Cardle.

Despite only 2 previous runs over hurdles, he carries top weight in the open handicap hurdle at 2:40.

I thought that might put people off – but not at all..!

He was 7/2 last night – but is 9/4 this morning.

I think he deserves to be that price, as he has very little to beat – and plenty of potential.

His bumper form was very good – and his 2 runs over hurdle have shown a lot of promise as well.
He should be suited by a step up to 3 miles, so ticks lots of boxes.

I’m going to make him a Top Pick – and hope he might drift a little in the betting, close to the off…

It will be interesting to see if Come on Annie can get her act together over fence in the handicap chase at 3:10.

I can see no reason why she should struggle over the bigger obstacles – and the overnight rain should help her case.

She is certainly handicapped to go very close, if Alex Dunne can get her jumping…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

Warwick 1:30 Smart Money 0.5pt win 11/2

 

Mentions

 

Warwick 2:30 Ruapehu (C )

Taunton 1:10 Un Bleu a Laam (P )

Taunton 2:10 The Skyfarmer (C )

Taunton 3:10 Come on Annie (S ) 

 

Top Picks

 

Warwick 1:00 Top Gamble

Warwick 2:40 Mr Cardle