Daily write-up - Dec 27th

Just the 5 NH meetings today: at Chepstow, Kempton and Wetherby in the UK – plus Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.

Once again, there is an absolute glut of top class racing – far more than this particular tipster can get his head round !

I’ve had to cherry pick – but provided I’ve managed to pick the right cherries, I don’t suppose anyone will mind too much !

In truth, I’ve been helped by the tardiness of the track reporting. I write this at 10:15 – and there is still no update on the state of the ground at Kempton.

It looked softer than I expected, yesterday – and I would imagine they’ve had some rain since then.
However, I’ve really little idea on what the ground will be riding like.

Consequently, I’ve been forced to swerve the meeting…

Instead, I’ve majored on Chepstow (where I know it will be bottomless) – and Leopardstown (where I know it will be heavy) – plus one race at Wetherby.

Here is the logic for the tips – and a few other thoughts…

Chepstow

1:25

Those of you who pay particular attention to the write-ups, will recall that I was pretty keen on Awaywiththegreys, the last time he ran…

That was at the beginning of this month, in a race over today course and distance. The only reason I didn’t tip him that day was because of the ground. It was good to soft – and I’m pretty convinced that Awaywiththegreys requires heavy ground to be seen at his best.

Whatever, it was a good call to swerve him, as he ran really disappointingly that day, despite being backed into 3/1 favouritism…

Whether he ran poorly because of the ground – or because connections didn’t manage to secure a price, I’ve no idea – but I’m happy to give him a chance to redeem himself today…

Awaywiththegreys had his finest hour in this very race 12 months ago, when, despite a mistake at the last, he managed to run down Ugly Bug in the shadows of the post.

His victory that day was achieved off a mark of 130. He was raised 6lb for it – but today gets to run off a mark of 127.

There can be little doubt that he is potentially well handicapped.

As I’ve already said, today’s test (3 miles in heavy ground) is precisely what he needs – plus, he has a cherry on top, in the shape of 5lb claimer, Sean Bowen.

In short, he ticks a lot of boxes for a 14/1 shot…

Ofcourse, the question mark is his current form. We do have to be prepared to forgive his most recent run – but if we are prepared to do that, then he clearly is a good bet this afternoon…

In terms of dangers, then I would nominate Katkeau and Wychwoods Brook as the two I fear most. The former won a decent race at the Paddy Power meeting, on the back of a long absence. He’s been raised 8lb for that win – but that doesn’t look overly punitive. Whilst Wychwood Brook races today from a mark 14lb lower than his chase mark – and should have no issues with the very heavy ground.

I would expect both to go well – but hopefully Awaywiththegreys will have their measure…

0.5pt win Awaywiththegreys 14/1

2:35

I previewed the Welsh National on the ante-post blog a few weeks back…

At the time, I felt that Amigo and Emperors Choice represented good value at odds of 25/1 and 33/1 respectively.

However, the danger with ante-post betting is that the horse won’t make the gig.

Well, fortunately, both horses look likely to make it to the post – and more than that, both have halved in price, since I posted on the blog.

I was particularly keen on Emperors Choice, whom I felt ticked just about every box – and, if anything, the case for him has got stronger since I compiled it…

The withdrawal of the horses originally at the top of the handicap, has seen quite a significant weight rise (11lb).

As a result, Emperors Choice now gets to run off a near ideal weight of 10st8lb – whilst a number of potential dangers have had their weights taken well above the 11st barrier.

Only a hand full of horses have managed to carry in excess of 11 stone to victory in the Welsh National over the past 30 years – so those in that category today, will need to be exceptional to win.

The other big pluses for the chances of Emperors Choice, are the over night rain (which means the ground is likely to be truly bottom-less) – and the booking of Aidan Coleman.

I do rate Coleman as a jockey – but more than that, him being in the saddle suggests that Emperors Choice is Venetias number 1 for the race…
Despite all of these positives, dangers still abound…

Obviously there is Amigo (though the 12/1 now available holds little appeal): whilst Benbens and Woodford County are two others who catch my eye.

That said, I do feel that Emperors Choice is an exceptional bet at 20/1 (never mind 33/1). So much so, that I was tempted to have 0.5pt on him – despite the price !

Ofcourse that doesn’t mean he will win – but I can guarantee you that if I could find ones like him every day of the year, this would be a very profitable service indeed !

0.25pt win Emperors Choice 20/1

Elsewhere on the Chepstow card, I was half tempted by Bog Hands Harry in the novice handicap chase at 12:55.

He did amazingly well to win last time out at Ascot  - and todays left handed track should suit him much better.

The 5/1 yesterday evening wasn’t quite tempted enough, however – so needless to say, the 7/2 this morning makes scant appeal…

Saint Lino caught my eye in the Finale juvenile hurdle, at 1:55…

He is making his UK debut – but has the same owner and trainer as Reve De Sivola.

Obviously it is complete guesswork – and he could never be at tip – but I thought he looked quite interesting at 25/1…

Finally, there is a cracking handicap chase at 3:10…

The novice, Deputy Dan makes the market, but I would be happy enough to take him on.
The trouble is, with what…

Good cases can be made for Renard, Ultragold and Headleys Bridge – and half cases for 3 or 4 others…

If backed into a corner, I would probably go with Headleys Bridge – but in such an open race, there is little margin in a quote of 7/1…

Leopardstown

1:20

What I find amazing about this race, is how few of the runners will be suited by the 2 miles on heavy ground…

Ballcasey and Bright New Dawn were both running over 3 miles, this time last year: whist Simply Ned is unlikely to appreciate the very heavy ground…

Conditions should be fine for Hidden Cyclone – but arriving on the back of falls in his last two runs, is hardly ideal…

Savello hasn’t run since April, which leaves Moscow Mannon, Mallowney, Uxizandre and Twinlight…

It’s difficult to crab the case of Uxizandre – but at 2/1, the value is minimal (or non-existent !).

Of far more interest, is Twinlight…

He is actually the 4^th highest rated runner in the field – just 4lb off top rated Uxizandre and a fair bit higher than both Moscow Mannon and Mallowney. Furthermore, he will be ideally suited by todays test of 2 miles and heavy ground.

His main issue, is his inconsistency – but on a good day, he can be very good.

I think it all comes down to his jumping – if he can get that right, he is a serious horse.

He got it right when he ran away with a grade 2 at Navan in November – but it went to pieces when he was a well beaten favourite at Cork, earlier this month.

Clearly he is not bomb proof – but equally, I think he has the natural ability to win the race – and at 25/1 it is worth a gamble that Paul Townend can get a tune out of him.

0.25pt win Twinlight 25/1

2:55

It goes a little bit against the grain to tip the 6/1 favourite in a 30 runner handicap – but simply, I think Foxrock has an exceptional chance in a race which is nowhere near as competitive as the numbers would suggest…

In truth, Foxrock has been on my radar for this race since his hugely eye catching performance at Punchestown at the beginning of this month.

His performance that day was so eye-catching, his jockey was called before the stewards to explain it.

He claimed that he was riding to orders – through it later transpired that the gelding had lost his front 2 shoes during the race.

Whatever, the fact he only finished third that day, despite looking like he could have won comfortably, meant that he gets to run today off the exactly the same mark.

Obviously, all the hullabaloo surrounding the performance meant that everyone became ware of him – but in a race worth over Euro 100K to the winner, that doesn’t really matter !

What matters is that the horse is fit, well handicapped and running under ideal conditions – and Foxrock ticks all of those boxes.

In fact, despite top weight, Foxrock could still be very well handicapped.

He was one of the top staying novices last season – and always looked the type to mature into a graded performer (he is still only 6).

Rather than any one of his rivals today, I am more concerned about the sheer volume of runners (and hence, possible traffic problems) – or him just not performing to his best.

Because if he does perform at the level I think him capable – and he gets the required bit of luck in running, then I think he will be exceptionally difficult to beat.

0.5pt win Foxrock 6/1

Wetherby

2:40

Despite carrying top weight, there is an argument that French Opera is very well handicapped today.

Running of a mark of 149, he’s not been rated below 150 since he won a handicap chase at Cheltenham 5 years ago…

Since then, he has raced almost exclusively in class 1 races – often graded events – and invariably run with credit.

He did run in a class 2 event 12 months ago and finished a close second to the fast improving Eastlake. He runs from a pound lower mark today (excluding his jockeys claim), which suggests that he really should go very close.

I guess there are 2 possible issues with him: firstly he will be 12 years old in a few days time: and secondly I don’t think he would appreciate very soft under foot conditions.
With regard to his age, then he ran a very eye-catching race on his seasonal debut in the Peterborough chase, earlier this month – that certainly suggested the fire still burns bright.

With regard to the going, then it is officially soft, good to soft in places. Assuming that is the case, then I think he should get away with it…

If he does, then I think there is a chance he could outclass today rivals.

If he doesn’t, then De Boitron is the one I think will be most likely to take advantage. He ran against French Opera last time out – and whilst he finished behind him, he is a little better of at the weights today. I could also see him running a  very big race.

I think he is worth a saver.

0.5pt win French Opera 6/1

0.25pt win De Boitron 7/1

  

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Chepstow 1:25 Awaywiththegreys 0.5pt win 14/1

Chepstow 2:35 Emperors Choice 0.25pt win 20/1

Leopardstown 1:20 Twinlight 0.25pt win 25/1

Leopardstown 2:55 Foxrock 0.5pt win 6/1

Wetherby 2:40 French Opera 0.5pt win 6/1

 

Late

 

Wetherby 2:40 De Boitron 0.25pt win 7/1

 

Mentions

 

Chepstow 12:55 Big Hands Harry (O )

Chepstow 1:55 Saint Lino (S )

Chepstow 3:10 Headleys Bridge (O )

 

Top Picks

 

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