Daily write-up - Dec 26th

There are an incredible 10 NH meetings taking place today: 8 in the UK (one of which is in Northern Ireland) – plus a further 2 in the Republic of Ireland.

Busy times !

In fact, there is so much racing – plus relative uncertainty (due to information not being updated over the Christmas holiday), that I decided only to look at half of the cards.

I limited myself to Kempton, Wetherby and Wincanton in the UK – plus Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.

I found 4 tips – and hopefully there will at least one winner, amongst them.

Here is the rationale – along with a few other thoughts…

Kempton

1:25

When I first looked at this race, I was drawn to The Skyfarmer…

He’s been disappointing on his first two tries over fences, but I’m sure he will be helped by today’s quicker ground.

He is also becoming quite attractively handicapped.

The trouble is, when I re-watched the videos of him in action, I’m just not convinced by his fencing technique. He spends a lot of time in the air – without going forward very much.

In short, his technique is inefficient – and potentially flawed.
Ofcourse, quicker ground may see significant improvement – but after due consideration, I decided to pass on him and go instead for a horse who will be jumping his first ever fence in public…

After 4 runs over hurdles in his native France, Katgary made his debut for Paul Nicholls in the 4 year old Fred Winter hurdle at last seasons Cheltenham festival.

In truth, he should have won that day, but he was hampered by a faller at he second last hurdle and could only finish second.

It was still a run of some merit however, as the winner, Hawk High is now rated 145 – and Katgary gets to run off a mark of just 135 today.

The suggestion that he is potentially well handicapped is supported by the current rating of the horses who finished immediately behind him at Cheltenham.

The main question, is whether he can run to that level of form today…

He’s been a little disappointing on his 2 runs this season - but he appeared to need the first of them; whilst he can be excused the second as it took place in the fiercely competitive Greatwood hurdle.

Of course, we have also no idea how he will cope with fences – but I’m sure he will have been well schooled and it seems quite significant that Nicholls is putting him over the bigger obstacles whilst he is still only 4 years old.

This is a ploy Nicholls has used successfully in the past. The 6lb weight for age concession that 4 year olds get from their seniors, is a big plus point.

All this said, Katgary does face some potentially very useful rivals today – though ofcourse, there is every possibility that he himself could be a  decent animal…

On balance, I figured it worth a risk to find out at the 8/1 best available.

0.5pt win Katgary 8/1

2:35

I think we will learn a bit more about Faugheen today…

He’s being billed as a superstar – and is current favourite for the Champion hurdle.

He might well prove to be that good – but at the moment, I think there are a few question marks hanging over him.

Firstly, the value of his general form: he was an exceptional novice last season  - but that doesn’t make him a champion this; and secondly, his effectiveness over a sharp 2 miles, like he will encounter at Kempton.

Whatever, I don’t think todays test will play to his strengths, so if he does come out on top, he will go up a bit in my estimation.

All this said, I would still make him favourite for todays race – but not a 2/5 shot.

Part of the issue, is what to take him on with…

His 3 main rivals aren’t Champion Hurdle class – though in fairness, all 3 also have a good deal of scope for improvement.

Irving was joint favourite to beat Faugheens stable mate, Vatour, at last seasons festival – and whilst he wasn’t up to that task, he should have won his 2 subsequent starts.

Whilst Sign of a Victory was also a very useful novice, and absolutely hacked up on his reappearance in a decent handicap at Ascot.

Both of those horses prefer decent ground – as does Purple Bay.

In all probability he would have lost out to Irving on his reappearance in the Elite hurdle at Wincanton, if that one hadn’t fallen at the last.

However, it is unlikely there would have been much between them, so with a 6lb pull in the weights today, it is difficult to understand the discrepancy in prices between the pair (Irving is 6/1, Purple Bay 20/1).

Prior to that run, it appeared that, whilst still progressing, Purple Bay did have limitations.

However, it should be borne in mind that he is still only 5 years old and therefore could still have plenty of room for improvement.

Ultimately, this all came down to odds…

Over a sharp 2 miles, there is a chance that Faugheen is vulnerable – and there doesn’t look to be a lot between the 3 horses that following him in the betting.

As one of them is 3 times the odds of the other 2, I felt he was worth a small risk.

0.25pt win Purple Bay 20/1

The King George VI chase is the high-light of the Christmas period – and this seasons

race promises to be a cracker…

Last seasons victor, Silviniaco Conti, is a worthy favourite, but the quick ground gives a number of his rivals a realistic chance of beating him…

If he is overturned, than I think it is most likely to be by his old rival, Cue Card.
He seemed to have this race in safe keeping, turning for home last season – but weakened between the final two fences.

On todays quicker ground, there must be a good chance his stamina will hold out for the required extra furlong or two…

The other one of major interest is Menorah.

He put it up to Silviniaco last time out at Haydock – and he is another that will be much better suited by todays quick ground.

I’d be happy enough opposing Dynaste and Al Ferof – whilst accepting that both have a chance of victory.

I think that Champagne Fever also has a chance of victory – but this will represent a huge test for him.

He looks very weak in the betting – but if there is late money for him (say he goes off at 5/1 or less), I have a feeling he will be successful.

Wishfull Thinking and Johns Spirit are fascinating bigger priced contenders.

I’ll be surprised if either gets home – but I could still see Wishfull Thinking running a mighty race.

All things being equal, I think the first 3 home will be Silviniaco Conti, Cue Card and Menorah – I’m just not sure in what order.

At the current prices, I think Cue Card (7/1) could represent a bit of value.

The Kauto Star Novice chase at 2:00 is another race where the state of ground is likely to open things up…

Market leaders Saphir De Rheu and Coneygree, would be much more effective on a softer surface, as would Virak and Carraig Mor.

As a consequence, Creepy and Warden Hill have both got better chances than their odds suggest.

I could actually quite fancy Creepy, who put in an exemplary round of jumping on his chase debut, before falling on soft ground, when running at Cheltenham.

The trouble is, I’ve no idea how he will cope with the Kempton track…

He’s never gone right handed – so it would be a complete guess.

He also likes to front run, so the presence of Coneygree won’t help on that score.

I might have taken a risk if the opposition wasn’t so hot – but I just can’t quite see him being good enough to overcome Saphir De Rheu (even on quick ground).

That said, I could easily see him running a very big race…

Wincanton

1:05

When Upepito made his UK debut at Market Rasen, just under a year ago, he was a 33/1 shot the Champion chase. Today he gets to run in a handicap off a mark of 123…

In fairness, he ran off a mark of 129 on his first outing – but I have a feeling he is one of those horses that take a bit of time to acclimatise, following a change of country…

He could only finish third at Market Rasen – and did even worse on his only subsequent outing last season, when beating just one rival home at Musselburgh.

He ran second at Auteuil in April but was then put away until reappearing in a decent race at Exeter last month.

Turning for home that day, it looked as if he was going to bolt up – but he ran out of steam up the home straight and ultimately could only finish a well beaten fourth.

That said, Whispering Harry, who finished a place in front of him that day, won a decent race at Haydock last Saturday, so the form looks good for the grade.
All the same, I am hoping that Upepito can leave it behind today and start fulfilling some of the potential that saw him quoted for a Championship race, 12 months ago.

If he doesn’t fire today, it’s not easy to choose between his rivals…

Malibu Son was on a roll, prior to unseating at Ascot last Saturday; Un Majeur Ulmes has run well in a couple of better class contests; whilst Quick Deccison is gradually coming to the boil and has won at Wincanton in the past.

That said, non of the 3 have the scope for progress that Upepito does – lets hope he starts fulfilling it this afternoon.

0.5pt wim Upepito 11/2

The other horse I was tempted by at Wincanton, is Master Neo.
He runs in the handicap chase at 3:25 – and if I knew that the forecast rain would arrive and get into the ground, I would take a risk on him. But I can’t be sure that will happen..

He looks an improved animal to me, this season: wining well at Market Rasen ,before running a huge race next time at Cheltenham.
His subsequent run at Aintree appeared disappointing – but he made shocking blunders at the first 2 fences and actually did well to even get round.

However, he has got a strong preference for soft/heavy ground – and it is currently good to soft at Wincanton.

Rain is forecast – and a lot of it. But it will need to arrive in good time and get into the ground. That might happen – or it might not.
If it does, I would have taken a risk at 15/2 – but without that knowledge, I don’t feel I can get involved…

Wetherby

I would be prepared to take on Broadway Buffalo in the Rowland Meryck chase at 1:45, despite him being a very impressive winner, just last Saturday…

He gets 7lb penalty for that win – but was value for more than that.
However, the race fell apart in front of him, so it’s questionable what the form is worth.

The trouble is, the 2 I fancy to beat him, are the next two in the betting: Cape Tribulation and Vintage Star.
Cape Tribulation is potentially very well handicapped – but has been a bit out of from; and whilst Vintage Star doesn’t have a lot in hand of his mark, the fitting of cheek pieces and the booking of James Reveley, could trigger sufficient improvement to get him home first.

It would literally be a toss of the coin – and at 7/1 the pair, I just didn’t feel there was quite enough margin to get involved….

Leopardstown

2:20

We were on Treat Yourself last time out, when he ran at Fairyhouse at the end of November.

He ran a decent enough race that day, without ever really looking likely to win.

However, one that did look likely to win – and for a good part of the race – was Way up in the Air…

She really caught my eye in the contest, travelling powerfully in rear division  – and making ground at most of the fences.

In fairness, she is a keen going sort (hence the hood) – so on her seasonal debut, you would maybe expect he to travel with verve.

That said, it’s not unreasonable to think she will have derived considerable benefit from her first run in 6 months – and if it has brought her on as I think it might have done, she really should be in the thick of things this afternoon.

She has already shown a lot of potential over fences – and I do think that a mark of 122 could underestimate her ability.

Certainly, I wouldn’t expect Treat Yourself to be able to exact his revenge on her as he is just 1lb better off for a 4 length beating (and he should have been the fitter of the pair).

Chances – or half chances – can be given to most of her rivals, with Some Tikket and Never Complain the two who I would be most wary of. That said, if Way up in the Air, has made the expected improvement from her debut run, then I think she is going to be difficult to beat this afternoon.

0.5pt win Way up in the Air 7/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Kempton 1:25 Katgary 0.5pt win 8/1

Kempton 2:35 Purple Bay 0.25pt  win 20/1

Wincanton 1:05 Upepito 0.5pt win 11/2

Leopardstown 2:20 Way up in the Air 0.5pt win 7/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Kempton 2:00 Creepy (O )

Kempton 3:10 Cue Card (O )

Wincanton 3:25 Master Neo (C )

Wetherby 1:45 Cape Tribulation (P )

Wetherby 1:45 Vintage Star (P )

 

Top Picks

 

None