Daily write-up - Dec 12th

There is NH racing today at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Bangor…

I do feel a little bit fated at times…

We finally get a day when I could really have gone to town on the tips – and the rain comes !

As I’ve said before, whilst I would prefer there to be no rain, I can cope with it - provided we know the state of the ground.
And that’s the issue today…

10mm of rain overnight appears to have had minimal impact on the going (now officially good to soft). Hopefully that will be the case as pretty much every tip I’ve issued would prefer quick (relatively speaking) ground.

I guess one good thing about Cheltenham, is that it’s familiar territory.

I’m used to it raining there – and have a fair idea of the likely impact, given the current state of the ground (ie. I understand how quickly it drains).

My expectation is that it will still be relatively quick today – but not quite as quick as it was yesterday !

Hopefully all the tips will be fine with that…

Here’s the thinking…

Cheltenham

1:05

I’m not convinced that this race is quite as competitive as it initially looks.

Certainly there are a few runners in it, which I would be quite happy to oppose, for one reason or another.

That’s not to say they couldn’t win – just that they will need to bounce back to form in order to do so…

Liberty One is a horse that I hoped I would be able to tip today.

I was quite keen on him last time, when he ran in a hot race at Newbury.

He only finished fourth that day, which I initially found a little disappointing  - but on watching the race again, I think he ran better than the final result suggests…

He was travelling quite nicely when he made a mistake at the cross fence.

His jockey reacted to that by applying pressure and Liberty One fairly took off…

He probably made around 6 lengths on the field in a very short period of time and as a result found himself disputing the lead, entering the home straight.
I don’t think that was the best use of his energy – and as a consequence he paid for it.

His jockey eased off him a little approaching the fourth last, but when he went for him again after that fence, there was no response.

I think the horse had already used up its energy reserves,

As a consequence it could only plod on into a well beaten fourth.
On the plus side, his mark was dropped 1lb for that run – and todays slightly shorter trip and slightly better ground should also help.

In terms of dangers, then Hollow Blue Sky strikes me as the most likely – with fellow market leader Gallery Exhibition, another likely to be in the shake up.

There is also Son of Suzie, whom I tipped last time at Ascot – though he would have to jump much better today than he did last time out, in order to feature.

In short, I’m pretty hopeful that things will fall right for Liberty One today and he can get things off to a good start.

0.5pt win Liberty One 6/1

2:40

This is a slightly strange race in so much as you can argue a case for most of the field, based on certain races in the form book…

The tricky bit is therefore deciding which bit of the form book to believe !

In this race 12 months ago, the French challenger Pasquini Rouge finished a gallant third to Sire Collonge and Any Currency, with Imperial Circus fourth and Keep on Track a well beaten sixth.

Based on that run, Pasquinin Rouge should comfortably account for all 3 of those horses today – and whilst I doubt it will be quite that simple, he is a decent EW bet at 16/1.

My feeling is that Keep on Track just didn’t show his form on that occasion.
In fairness, he was only a 6 year old at the time, with very limited banks experience.

He came into the race on the back of a very creditable run in the Risk of Thunder chase at Punchestown, with connections presumably looking to take advantage of a very favourable handicap mark.
He travelled strongly through the race that day – but just didn’t get home..

Roll on 12 months and he is now a much more experience horse.

Two fine runs in the bank races at last seasons Punchestown festival were followed by another excellent run in the Risk of Thunder Chase at Punchestown last month

He finished second to Love Rory that day – but there was no disgrace in that.
Furthermore he had todays race favourite Bug Shu, 6 lengths back in third.

Now I’ve no doubt that Big Shu will strip fitter for that run, but he is really going to have his work cut out turning round the form on 23lb worse terms…

To add to his case, Keep On Track is trained by the Banks master, Enda Bolger and is ridden by an excellent 7lb claimer in the shape of Brian Linehan (younger brother of Maurice).

He has ticks in a lot of boxes and at the price, is worth a bet to show last seasons run in this race to be all wrong.

0.5pt win Keep on Track 15/2

3:15

As with Liberty Ones race, I’ve not sure this race is as competitive as it initially appears…

Big Easy and Ulzanas Raid are clearly the two to beat – but the market is wise to that and there is little margin in their prices…

Of more interest, is Invicta Lake – who finished behind Big Easy last time out in a good quality staying event, at the Paddy Power meeting.

His run that day surprised me. He’s a horse I felt I knew quite well (I tipped him at the back end of last season) and I didn’t think he was up to that grade – but I was wrong…

In my defence, he does seem to have improved this season, as Paddy Brennan has decided to ride him with much more restraint.
Those tactics certainly paid dividends on his seasonal debut, when he ran way with a race at Plumpton.

And they briefly looked like working last time out, when he arrived, travelling well on the home turn in the Cheltenham race.

At that point, Big Easy and eventual winner Katenko, quickened away from him – but they didn’t get too far away – and a 4lb pull with the runner up for 4 lengths, should make things much closer today.
More than that, Big Easy was subsequently subjected to quite a hard race in the mud at Haydock – and there must be a chance that has taken the edge of him…

There is no collateral form with the other big danger, Ulzana’s Raid – and there is a chance that he will be too good.

However, his rating of 143 leaves little margin for error – and I’m prepared to take him on at the prices.

In summary, I think Invicta Lake has a decent chance of wining today – and a very good chance of at least being placed.

0.5pt win, 0.25pt place Invicta Lake 8/1

Earlier on the Cheltenham card, I was half tempted by Starluck in the handicap hurdle at 1:40…

I put him up last out at Ascot – but he never got into a race which was stolen form the front.
He’s been dropped 4lb for that run – which obviously makes him of interest today.

He should also prefer todays better ground…

However, I still don’t think that Cheltenham is his ideal course – and once again there is the danger of a falsely run race (he wants a good gallop).

He’s the sort you could play in running, if things are falling right (he’s settled and the ground looks decent) – but I’m just not quite comfortable enough, to tip this morning

It’s a similar situation with Standing Ovation…

I was also tempted by him – but feel there are just a few too many doubts to get involved.

This time it is more down to the quality of opposition – and him producing his best.

I can see a scenario whereby he comes home in front – but I can also see scenarios where he doesn’t run to form – or some of the opposition are just too good…

A borderline call – but I’ve decided to make him a mention.

Doncaster

1:50

I don’t really like to tip as short as 5/2 – but I couldn’t understand why No Duffer was such a big price this morning !

Last time out at Haydock, he was favourite for a race that Sixty Something also ran in.

That one unseated it’s rider at half way, whilst No Duffer cruised round, looking the most likely winner until he emptied up the home straight…

He’s been dropped 1lb for that run – and cut back by 3 furlongs in trip.

His chances of beating Sixty Something today look better than they did at Haydock – yet, for whatever reason, he was put in behind him in the betting.
Furthermore, whilst you couldn’t categorically dismiss the other 4 runners (there are now only 3), you would need a bit of imagination to concoct a case for Roc de Guye and Timesishard; whilst Mister Maker appears to be on the downgrade.

Ofcourse, things are rarely that simple, but I honestly expected No Duffer to be around a 6/4 shot – so at 5/2, I felt I had to pull the trigger !!

0.5 pt win No Duffer 5/2

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Cheltenham 1:05 Liberty One 0.5pt win 6/1

Cheltenham 2:40 Keep on Track 0.5pt win 15/2

Doncaster 1:50 No Duffer 0.5pt win 5/2

 

Late

 

Cheltenham 3:15 Invicta Lake 0.5pt win/0.25pt place 8/1

 

Mentions

 

Cheltenham 1:40 Starluck (C )

Cheltenham 2:10 Standing Ovation (O )

 

Top Picks

 

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