Daily write-up - Dec 18th

There is NH racing this afternoon at Exeter and Towcester.

Groundhog day.

I’m sure a few of you noticed that yesterdays write-up and advice summary were dated Dec 18^th. Apologies for that.
Mind you, the way the write-up read, you could be excused for thinking I’d cracked time travel 

I’ve got a little more aggressive with the staking today – hopefully not a day too late !

I messed up the staking last year – and I can sense it might happen again this time round...

I’m naturally far too cautious – and I end up backing off when I stake the bets. To counter-act that, I have a set of rules in my head – but I certainly didn’t invoke them consistently yesterday.

In truth, despite having 0.75pt on Trickaway, I could be accused of not invoking them consistently today, either.

He could easily be a 1pt bet – so let’s hope I regret under-staking him as well !

Here’s why I think that - plus a few other thoughts…

Exeter

2:50

When I first looked at this race last night, I assumed I wouldn’t be able to tip Trickaway as his case looked so obvious, I was confident he would be too short a price…

An impressive winner last time out, he’s a fast progressing novice chaser representing the unstoppable combination of Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson.

Up against him are 7 rivals, non of whom appear to possess either his ability or his potential.

I honestly expected him to be priced up against 7/4 – so seeing him at 7/2 was a bit of a shock.

And what has shocked me more, is that the price has stayed – even though nothing else in the race has been backed against him.
All very strange. In fact, if it weren’t for his connections, I would be a little suspicious !

He literally does have ticks in every box – bar 1.

A course winner on heavy – he won last time out on good to soft (so the ground shouldn’t be an issue, whatever).

He likes to front run – and there is no obvious competition for the lead.

The trip looks perfect – and with only 8 runs under rules and 3 over fences, he has plenty of scope for improvement.

He’s even a PTP winner over 3 miles – which supports the idea that he should still be progressing.

The only worry I’ve got in my mind, concerns his jumping…

He unseated Dickie Johnson on his penultimate run at Warwick – and the pair had one or two dicey moments last time out at Wincanton.
That said, his jumping improved as the contest progressed – and Dickie isn’t a man easily dislodged (certainly not twice from the same horse).

In terms of his rivals, then I’m struggling to muster much enthusiasm for any of them…

Sun Life Wild and The Happy Warrior both performed well last time out, but that was in very small fields, so it’s anyone’s guess what the form is worth. Both also received small weight rises for those runs.

A bigger danger maybe Wayward Frolic. But he was pulled up after a bad mistake last time –and unseated the time before that. He clearly needs to improve his jumping if he is to be a threat.
All things being equal, I’ll be a bit disappointed if Trickaway gets round safely and doesn’t go very close.

Certainly, I think he represents excellent value at 7/2, as I wouldn’t be prepared to lay him at much more than 6/4.

I’m wary of putting all my eggs in one basket – but it’s impossible not to make him a Top Pick as well.

In Dickie we trust !!

0.75pt win Trickaway 7/2

Earlier on the card, there is a very trappy looking handicap hurdle at 1:20.

The Hobbs/Johnson combination could again be the one to follow in this race, with the very lightly raced Pull the Chord.

However, unlike Trickaway, he has some serious opposition to overcome, in the shape of Lochnager, Wadswick Court, Shammick Boy and Thundering Home.
Despite that, he is just a 3/1 chance.

All that simply adds to the case for Trickaway, in my opinion !!

I think Alder Mairi is the one for the mares novice handicap chase at 2:20 – but at 15/8, she is no betting proposition.

Whilst in the last, I Would be most interested in Midnight Request.

He’s an 11/2 chance, which is far enough, but 16 runners – many of them difficult to get a handle on, makes it a bit of a guessing game…

Towcester

I really wanted to get us on Broadway Symphany in the novice handicap chase at 1:10 – but it’s not been possible…

He opened up at 14/1 last night, which was a tremendous price – but he was 8/1 generally this morning…

That was tempting – but there was then a significant NR and as a result, you now can’t beat 11/2…

In truth, that might still be a little generous (9/2 would seem about right) – but only a little…

Non of the other 3 in the race can be safely discounted – so a bet on Broadway Symphony was more about ‘value’ than anything else.

At 11/2, the value is limited…

I make Newton Thistle the most likely winner of the handicap chase at 2:10 – but so do the bookies…

He would appear to have plenty of scope off his current mark of 75 – but he has got a 9 month absence to over come.
If he’s fit, he’ll probably win – and the market should be the best guide on that….

Finally, in the 3:10 race, I would be most interested is I Know the Code.
I tipped him last season when he ran off a mark of 95 – so running off a mark of 81 today, he has to be of interest…

He also ran well enough on his seasonal debut over this course and distance, when well backed to do so.
If he can build on that run, he has to go close today – but 4/1 offers little margin, price-wise…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Exeter 2:50 Trickaway 0.75pt win 7/2

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Exeter 1:20 Pull the Chord (O )

Exeter 2:20 Alder Mairi (P )

Exeter 3:50 Midnight Request (S )

Towcester 1:10 Broadway Symphony (O )

Towcester 2:10 Newton Thistle (C )

Towcester 3:10 I Know the Code (P )

 

Top Picks

 

Exeter 2:50 Trickaway