Daily write-up - Dec 9th

They race this afternoon, at Uttoxeter and Fontwell…

It’s always going to be difficult to tip on days like today.

Small fields, poor prize money, uncertain ground – there’s a whole load of risks that have to be factored in before you can even begin to consider the standard variables such as form etc.

I certainly could have been interested in one or two this afternoon – and all things being equal, I would be surprised if I couldn’t find a winner or two from the mentions. However, unless I tipped them all (which I was never going to do), I wouldn’t feel confident over where the victories would come from…

Here are my thoughts…

Uttoxeter

The nearest I got to a tip today, was Keel Haul, who runs in the novice handicap chase at 1:50.

He makes his debut over fences today, having run well in a better class hurdle race at Haydock, last time out.

As a previous PTP winner, you wouldn’t expect him to have any problems with the fences – and his mark of 120 looks reasonable enough (he won off 115 over hurdles, last season).

The issue is all down to the opposition…

Uranium has its first run for Venetia (and in the UK) after 751 days off the track – as they say, it could be anything.

Bjornlucky has its first run in a handicap and it’s first run over fences – and gets allowances for being a 4 year old. Again, it is impossible to get a handle on.

Moss Clouds also has its first run over fences – and is a former PTPs winner: whilst Key to the West is potentially well handicapped, if it can recover its form…

I was half tempted to take a risk on Keel Haul at 9/2 early – but he was 4/1 by 8:30 – and the defection of Tiquer has seen his price drop to 3/1.

He sets a reasonable standard for a race such as this – but it’s a standard that at least 2 of his rivals could surpass.
In short, he was too risky to tip at the prices…

There is a fascinating novice chase off at 12:50, which gives Grand Vision an excellent chance to make amends for an unlucky fall last time out.

If he stands up, he will take the beating – though all of his rivals can be given some kind of a chance.

Rattlin has already demonstrated a good level of fencing competence; whilst Cloudy Copper could be very good – but has a long absence to overcome.

I could also see Top Totti running well – and at the prices available (10/1), she is probably the best ‘value’ bet’ in the race…

I would expect Lochnagar to take an uncompetitive looking handicap hurdle, due off at 1:20: whilst Storm of Swords looks most likely in the 2:20 race.
However, both have been installed as favourite – so I’m not revealing a great deal there.

Fontwell

I could be interested in the Moss on the Mill, in the novice handicap chase at 1:10.

He was a best price 9/4 last night – but has drifted to 11/4 this morning (in the face of opposition for 3 of his rivals).

If his price were to go beyond 3/1, I would be very tempted.

He ran well last time out, on his chasing debut behind Tara Hill at Ffos Las and if he can build on that run today, he will take the beating.

That said, King of Glory, Letbeso and Ballyheige Bay are all credible rivals, so there would need to be something in the price, in order to justify getting involved…

Theatrical Star looks the one to beat in the handicap chase at 2:10.

He was 7/4 early, which looked fair enough – and I thought he might be a Top Pick.

However, he is now 6/5 – and I guess might even go odds on…

I would price him up around 6/4 – so I think he’s touch short now – and as I’m not confident he will drift, he can’t be a Top Pick, either…

Finally, Aficionado is the one of interest in the handicap hurdle at 2:40.
He is debuting for Richard Newland, who is likely to have eked a bit of improvement out of him.
However, the market is wise to that probability.

11/4 early seemed about right – 9/4 now seems too short.

I think we can afford to watch it win at that kind of price….

Here’s hoping you have a good day, if you do choose to get involved.

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Uttoxeter 12:50 Grand Vision (O )

Uttoxeter 1:20 Lochnagar (P )

Uttoxeter 1:50 Keel Haul (O )

Uttoxeter 2:20 Storm of Swords (P )

Fontwell 1:10 Moss on the Hill (P )

Fontwell 2:10 Theatrical Star (P )

Fontwell 2:40 Aficionado (P )

 

Top Picks

 

None