Daily write-up - Dec 19th

They race this afternoon at Ascot and Uttoxeter.

I have to admit, I expected more from today’s fixtures – particularly the one at Ascot.

I know I’ve managed to find a couple of tips – but that’s mainly because I feel I’m in a good place for tipping at the moment.

Opportunities on the day are few and far between.

The majority of the fields at Ascot are too small and uncompetitive to consider getting involved: and whilst the field sizes are better at Uttoxeter, the state of the ground will turn the races in to wars of attrition.

In all probability the races at Uttoxeter won’t be won by the best runners – they will be won by the fittest…

That explains why I’ve gone for a Venetia horse there – the Ascot tip was selected for more conventional reasons.

Here’s a bit more behind the logic – and a few other thoughts…

Ascot

3:05

I’m quite keen to get involved in this race because of the two market leaders…

Batavir and Spartan Angel have similar profiles, in so much as they represent powerful yards (David Pipe and Nicky Henderson) and are relatively unexposed…

They are the sort that tend to be under-priced, simply because of those reasons – not because of anything they have achieved on the course.

In fairness, as unexposed horses from big yards, there is a reasonable chance that they will improve on what they have achieved so far – but they will need to, if they are to win today…

Third favourite, Dream Deal, will also need to improve on what he has done previously – but that is a distinct possibility, as he looked a progressive sort when scoring on his seasonal debut at Exeter. All the same the handicapper has taken few chances, giving him a 9lb rise for that win. He will have his work cut out following up in this better class race.

Without doubt, the one to beat on current form, is Little Boy Boru.

Wins at Sandown and Plumpton, were followed by a very creditable third at Newbury 3 weeks ago.

That was achieved in a slightly better race than todays – and Little Boy Boru looked set to play a big hand in the finish that day, until seemingly finding the trip a bit too far.

He is cut back by a couple of furlongs today, which I’m sure will suit him much better.

He will have no issues with the ground (whatever it might be !) – and in Harry Bannister, has a 5lb claimer on board, who is riding particularly well at the moment.

The other nice thing about this race, is that outside the top 4 in the betting, you have to be quite creative to give much a chance.

I guess Long Lunch could bounce back from a poor run last time; whilst Kuilsriver is potentially well enough handicapped, if he returns to the fray in top form (which is far from guaranteed).

In short, Little Boy Boru is a solid selection, in a potentially very winnable race – lets hope that things pan out accordingly…

0.5pt win Little Boy Boru 7/1

There are very few other opportunities on the Ascot card…

In the novice handicap chase at 1:20, I was half interested in Garrahalish.

You won’t see many better jumping novices this season –and that ability will always serve him well.
However he is running in a very tight little race – in which there is likely to be plenty of pace (and he likes to race prominently).

I’ll be surprised if he’s not thereabouts at the end of the race – but I won’t be overly surprised if one of his rivals is too good for him.

A price of 7/2 is probably about right – so he’ll have to be a mention.

Uttoxeter

2:55

When I first looked at this is race last night, Dixie Bull was the one that interested me…

Carrying bottom weight and with a 5lb claimer on board, has to be an advantage – and he ran well enough on his seasonal debut at Huntington last month.

I still respect his chances - but he was backed last night – and there now looks to be little margin in the best quote of 6/1.

Instead, I have switched my allegiance to the Venetia Williams trained Tuskar Rock.

As I said in the introduction, I think racing at Uttoxeter this afternoon, is going to be about the survival of the fittest – and the fact is, nobody gets their horses fitter than Venetia does.

Tuskar Rock is not the most consistent of animals – but there is little doubt that he is well handicapped, if on a going day, today.
He has already won twice in handicap chases off marks higher than he races off today – once over this very course and distance (from a mark 11lb higher).
He was disappointing when last seen at Chepstow in November - but I’m prepared to put a line through that run and judge him on his previous victory also at Chepstow, a the end of October.

He won well that day – and gets to run off just a 4lb higher mark today.

Clearly he is no certainty – but I think he has as good a chance as any, in a race which I think is potentially very open.
He also has Venetia in his corner – and on a day like today, that has to be a big plus.

0.25pt win Tuskar Rock 10/1

Manballandall, is the only other runner on the card, that I think worthy of a mention, in the 1:45 race…

He showed nothing on his seasonal debut at Newbury last month – but that was after a years absence…

He had certainly shown plenty on his 2 previous runs over hurdles – so the question is, how much ability does he retain..?
That’s an impossible one to answer – but the 18/1 on offer, did tempt me, for a minimum bet.
You don’t have to be right very often at those kind of prices, to make things pay.…

Certainty he should love the ground – though lugging top weight in it, is a different matter.
I’ll leave you each to draw your own conclusions on whether to get involved…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Ascot 3:05 Little Boy Boru 0.5pt win 7/1

 

Late

 

Uttoxeter 2:55 Tuskar Rock 0.25pt win 10/1

 

Mentions

 

Ascot 1:20 Garrahalish (O )

Uttoxeter 1:45 Manballandall (S )

 

Top Picks

 

None