It’s
turned into quite a busy day – considering I intended to take it off !
3
meetings have survived the weather – and I think there are good opportunities at
all 3.
Time
constraints mean I have to keep the write-up very short – and there will be no
review later (unless we get a bag full of winners )
Here
are my brief thoughts…
Newbury
1:05
A
competitive race – but one in which I felt Gunna Be a Devil was
over-priced.
He
ran well on his seasonal debut against a well handicapped horse – and has been
dropped 6lb following that run.
He
will be sharper today; ideally suited by the test – and could get an easy time
of it up front.
Something may get past him in the closing stages – but
hopefully not 3 of them !
0.25pt win Gunna Be a Devil 16/1
1:35
Shattered Dream ran really well on his UK debut in a much
hotter race at Cheltenham in November.
He
disappointed next time – but today gets to run off a mark 8lb lower than he
debuted from.
Conditions should be fine – and he represents that
winning combination of Venetia and Aidan !
0.25pt win Shattered Dream 12/1
In
the 2:45 race, I would expect Royal Regatta to follow up his recent course and
distance win; whilst Vice et Vertu was of some interest, at a price (12/1) in
the handicap hurdle at 3:15
Leopardstown
12:20
It’s
slightly risk tipping Third Opinion here, because he is a potential plot horse
!
He’s
had a number of very quiet runs in decent novice chases and gets to make his
handicap debut today off a mark of 116 (7lb lower than his hurdle
mark).
He
will win races off that mark – and I hope that, with it being the big Christmas
festival, connections have targeted this race.
The
market will doubtless tell, close to the off…
0.25pt win Third Opinion 14/1
3:05
A
top class novice chase, where a chance can be given to most of them.
That said, I felt that Apache Stronghold had the strongest form, in the shape of his second place in the grade 1 Drinmore chase at Fairyhouse.
That said, I felt that Apache Stronghold had the strongest form, in the shape of his second place in the grade 1 Drinmore chase at Fairyhouse.
He
didn’t jump well that day – and he also jumped to his left.
If
he can improve in that department, at a more suitable course, the others will
have to be very good to beat him (which in fairness, one or two of them just
might be !).
0.25pt win Apache Stronghold 8/1
I
think that Hurriane Fly v Jezki is quite literally a coin toss. If Jezki gets to
2/1, I suggest you take it.
In
the 2:00 race, Perrie Hill has a better chance than his 20/1 odds
imply.
Limerick
3:20
A
dilemma: the best bet of the day; the price in free fall; not all the bookmakers
priced up – what to do ?!?
I
issued – and you can all damn me when it wins !
Zekarya should have won this race 12 months ago, off a
mark 1lb lower than he races off today.
He
was given a very quiet come back run at Navan a fortnight ago.
His
trainer gets back into the saddle today – and the cheek prices go on.
This
horse is meant to win today – trust me !
I couldn’t believe the early 16/1 and 14/1 – 8/1 was still generous.
I couldn’t believe the early 16/1 and 14/1 – 8/1 was still generous.
4/1
is about right – hopefully you’ve all beaten that !
0.5pt win Zekayra 9/1
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Early
Newbury 1:35 Shattered Dreams 0.25pt win 12/1
Leopardstown 12:20 Third Opinion 0.25pt win 14/1
Leopardstown 3:05 Apache Stronghold 0.25pt win 8/1
Limerick 3:20 Zekarya 0.5pt win 9/1
Late
None
Mentions
Newbury 2:45 Royal Regatta (P )
Newbury 3:15 Vice et Vertu (O )
Leopardstown 1:25 Jezki (P )
Leopardstown 2:00 Perrie Hill (O )
Top Picks
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