Daily write-up - Dec 15th

There is racing this afternoon at Plumpton and Ffos Las.

In fairness, they are not bad meetings for a Monday – and there were certainly a few horses that I was potentially interested in.

However, on closer study of their respective races – and the prices (realistically) available, I’ve opted not to go with any of them…

That’s not to say that one or two couldn’t have been a tip – and indeed one or two might drift to prices where I would be interested.
However, when I was able to act (at 8:30 and 11:00), there was nothing worth tipping.

Here are my thoughts – along with a bit of guidance on the ones I think might possibly become worthy of interest, nearer the off…

Plumpton

In the novice chase at 12:40, I could certainly concoct a case of chasing debutant, Fergall.

He was at least as good as his 2 main rivals over hurdles - and gets 5lb from them both today.
However, this race could be as much about jumping as it could be about handicap marks - and we’ve no idea how good Fergall is at that…

I guess there comes a point where it’s worth a risk to find out – but I would want at least 4/1 and the current best offer is 11/4…

I gave serious consideration to Itoldyou as both a tip – and a Top Pick.

At 3/1, he could easily have been a tip. He would have won a better class race last time out, if his jumping hadn’t let him down.

He should also have no issues with todays trip and ground. In short, he looks pretty solid.

However, I can’t totally dismiss any of his rivals…

That makes tipping him at 5/2 tricky – and also isn’t an ideal scenario for a Top Pick…

Xaarcet gets a much more suitable test, in the handicap chase at 2:55…

2m4f in heavy ground will suit him far better than 2m on quick ground which he’s encountered on his last 2 runs.

He also gets blinkers applied - though they weren’t massively successful last time they were tried.

Additionally, his best form is over hurdles – so the fences have to be a slight doubt.

Again, he is one I might have been prepared to take a chance on at a price – but I was thinking more 6/1, than the 7/2 on offer !

Ffos Las

In the 1:30 race: Fishing Bridge was a mention, the last time he ran at Ludlow…

I thought he ran OK that day – and that he might be of interest in a race like todays.

I would stand by that comment – and would have been prepared to take a chance on him at a double figure price, in a race where it is difficult to get a proper handle on many of his rivals.

He actually opened up at 8/1 last night – but then was backed down to 5/1…

It’s a very easy decision to leave him along at that kind of price.

I thought I might have an angle into the handicap hurdle at 2:05 - but it revolved around opposing the favourite, Volt Face.
My original dilemma was whether to side with the proven class of Prima Porta – or the street toughness of Red Devil Lads.

I was kind of hoping the market would help me decide - but the withdrawal of Volt Face has messed things up completely !

Red Devil Lads and Prima Porta are now 5/2 and 9/4 respectively – it will be very poor if one of them doesn’t win at those kind of prices…

Finally, if the bookmakers would play ball (and I suspect they will eventually), there would be a tip in the handicap chase at 2:40.
Whilst I don’t think he’s the most likely winner, I set my mind, that if Makethemostofnow reached 14/1, I would have 0.25pt on him.

Well, he’s 15/1 on BF – but you can’t beat 12/1 with the bookmakers.

I know some of you will think it’s silly quibbling over a couple of points at that kind of price.
However, it’s a near 20% difference - and in the long run, that will catch us out.

If I felt strongly enough about him, I would tip him regardless – but I don’t.

I just think he’s got a chance – in a race that is more open than the betting suggests.

In fact, there is nothing in the race that I could eliminate – which is why I was planning to opt for one of the outsiders…

Here’s hoping you have a great day if you do choose to get involved…

TVB

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Plumpton 12:40 Fergall (S )

Plumpton 1:45 Itoldyou (O )

Plumpton 2:55 Xaarcet (P )

Ffos Las 1:30 Fishing Bridge (S )

Ffos Las 2:05 Prima Porta (O )

Ffos Las 2:40 Makethemostofnow (O )

 

Top Picks

 

None