Daily write-up - Dec 17th

They race this afternoon at Newbury and Ludlow…

And for a mid-week, they are both decent enough meetings. It certainly wasn’t difficult for me to find a potential tip or two – though deciding if/when to issue them because of the state of the market and the state of the ground, was a completely different matter !

I ended up, less taking the plunge and more dipping my toe in, at 8:30.
I felt there was too much uncertainty to be bold – but enough of a margin to take a small risk.
The 3 horses I tipped did all subsequently shorten in price.

How much of that was down to us, I could only speculate on…

I subsequently added a further selection late on.

Here is the rationale behind all of the tips – and a few other thoughts on the day…

Newbury

12:40

When I first looked at this race, one horse stood out: Gevrey Chambertin…

A 147 rated hurdler, who looked like he might be top class over fences, he gets to run today, off a mark of just 129…

Simply, if he is able to show the ability he showed over hurdler just over 12 months ago, he will blow away the field.

The trouble is, he’s now run 5 times over fences (I’ve tipped him on 2 of those occasions !) and he’s shown very little worthwhile form.

In fairness, there have been excuses for most of those runs. Four of them were in class 1 contests, where he had to face very strong rivals.

However, even allowing for that, he has been disappointing…

Todays contest is only a class 3 affair, but he will still need to perform better than he has been doing recently, if he is to win.

I guess the main reason why we might seen an improvement from him today, is the applicator of blinkers for the first time.

The application of first time cheek pieces saw him run away with the fixed brush hurdle final at Haydock – so there must be a chance that he will also react positively to a change in headgear, at least on the first occasion.
Certainly he looked to run lazily last time out at Cheltenham, where he was on and off the bridle until he stamina ultimately gave out, over a marathon trip.

He clearly isn’t a horse you can be confident about – but he is a horse who is handicapped to win today – and there is a good reason why he might produce his best form.

If he doesn’t deliver this afternoon, then I suspect the race will go to one of Minella on Line, Kaki de le Pree – or Chase the Spud.
At the prices, Chase the Spud is definitely the most interesting of the trio. He won what appeared, a fair race at Exeter last time out. Certainly a number of the horses in behind him that day have subsequently come out and franked the form.

He was given an 8lb rise for that win – but the bigger question is whether he can build on it.

If he can then he can, then I would expect him to go very close this afternoon.

In summary, if Gevrey puts his best foot forward then I wouldn’t expect him to beat Chase the Spud today – but if he doesn’t than I think Chase the Spud is the one most likely to take advantage.

0.25pt win Gevrey Chambertin 8/1

0.25pt win Chase the Spud 9/1

I was tempted by Greenlaw, in the 1:40 race – probably as a Top Pick…

The race doesn’t look particularly strong – and I thought he ran very well last time out, chasing home a well handicapped horse at Wetherby.

However, he was lucky to stay on his feet that day after a shocking blunder at half way – and whilst I think he will be able to cope with a drop in trip, dropping him half a mile in trip to 2m2f looks a slightly risky move.

If he gets to the front and jumps cleanly, I think he will win – but there are just a few too many risk involved for me to sanction backing him at 5/2 (or possibly less).

Amour D’Or would never have been a tip in the finale  – but I think she is still worthy of a mention. She caught my eye on her debut at Towcester and with that run under her belt, I would expect her to go very close this afternoon.

The main problem is that we have no idea over what she is taking on.

Miss Minx also ran well on her debut: whilst The Missus could be anything, as she is  a full sister to the high class Rajdhani Express.

Ludlow

1:20

This is another open looking race, in which I felt Gardefort was worth a risk at the early 8/1 (though I wouldn’t be touching him at the 4/1 now on offer !).

His case is far from solid however…

A fair animal in his native France, he was sent off 3/1 joint favourite on his handicap debut in this country. That was on heavy ground at Haydock in January – and whilst he travelled through the race with real purpose, he didn’t get home that day…

His next outing was a tilt at the novice handicap chase at the Cheltenham festival. Again he travelled well – but a mistake at the fourth last put paid to his chances (he fell at the second last).

His third and final outing of the campaign was at Ludlow last April. That was over 2m4f on good ground – which I thought he didn’t look too keen on…

Hopefully last nights rain will see the ground riding softer today.

I would actually prefer to see him running over 2m4f again – but Venetia has opted for 2 miles, and who am I to argue with her !

He certainly looks like he could now be a well handicapped horse, as he is running off a mark 8lb lower than at Haydock.
The trip and the ground are question marks however – as in theory, is his fitness.

All the same, I figured he was worth a risk at the price.

Of the others, then I would obviously be a little fearful of Oyster Shell – assuming he consents to start ! We were on him last time when he did – but he showed a bit of temperament that day and it had got the better of him the time before.

I felt far happier tipping him at 201/ then, than I would at 6/1 today.

If he doesn’t perform ,then Sir Valentino and Arkaim set he standard for Gardefort to achieve – but it doesn’t look overly demanding, so I’m hopeful he will be up to the task.

0.25pt win Gardefort 8/1

2:25

Grove Pride is another horse who we were on last time out, when he was the subject of an almighty plunge at Carlise – but ran an absolute shocker…

I really can’t explain away that performance. Maybe he didn’t like the rain softened ground (which could again be an issue this afternoon) or maybe he had a bad journey up there. We have to be prepared to ignore that run if we are going to follow him this afternoon (which is exactly what I’ve done !).
The one good thing about it, is that it resulted in a 3lb drop in his handicap mark – which makes him look quite well handicapped this afternoon.

He has also shown just about his best form, over todays course and distance – so there should be no issues on that score.

One thing I do find particularly interesting, is the presence of Jason Maguie in the saddle. I believe this is only his second ride for Henry Daly in the past 5 years…

In truth, there are a fair few in the race who can be given chances – though there are question marks of sorts over the 3 market leaders.

In those circumstances, it often pays to look a little lower down the market, which is what I’ve done with Groove Pride.

The other one in the race I could potentially have latched on to, was Royal Player.
A bit like Grove Pride he was very disappointing on his seasonal debut and so will need to bounce back from that.

I think he just might do that – but he was an 8/1 shot this morning, whilst Grove Pride was double that price. In the circumstances, the decision was made for me…

0.25pt win Grove Pride 16/1

I would quite like to take on It’s a Steal in the 12:50. He was a very impressive winner at Warwick last week – but he beat nothing and he’s always been quite a fragile horse.

Connections have almost certainly be forced into running him this week under a penalty because he will get a significant rise in the handicap for last weeks romp.
I’m not sure the Ludlow course will suit him particularly well either - so there are certainly enough doubts to be taking him on at even money…
The trouble is, with what…?

I tried a few on for size, but the closest I got was Toowoomba – and I wasn’t completely convinced about him.

Maybe I should just lay It’s a Steal – but that’s not really my style !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Early

Newbury 12:40 Gevrey Chambertin 0.25pt win 8/1

Ludlow 1:20 Gardefort 0.25pt win 8/1

Ludlow 2:25 Grove Pride 0.25pt win 16/1

Late

Newbury 12:40 Chase the Spud 0.25pt win 9/1

Mentions

Newbury 1:40 Greenlaw (C )

Newbury 3:20 Armour D’or (S )

Ludlow 12:50 Toowoomba (S )

Top Picks

None