Daily write-up - Dec 10th

There are a couple of NH meetings today, at Leicester and Hexham…

These are quiet times – and I’m also treading very cautiously.

Mid week NH racing in the middle of winter is invariably low key – and there can be little doubt, that finding an edge in the markets nowadays, is getting harder and harder…

Consequently, there isn’t much in the way of tips – but hopefully you all understand that this is because there isn’t much in the way of opportunities.

If you really want to bet, then you will still receive a write-up most days – along with the advice summary.

If you had just followed the mentions, at SP, since Saturday, you would be making a profit – so the guidance is there, for those of you who want to force things a bit, during the quiet periods.

For the rest of you, we do at least have a tip today – but it is a small one – and a very speculative one.

Here is the rationale – along with a few other thoughts on the day…

Leicester

1:10

Tipping a horse that hasn’t seen a racecourse for over 2 years, has to be considered a risky move - particularly when it is running in a competitive race.

However, I have a feeling that Foxbridge could be a pretty talented animal – and, as is shown on almost a daily basis, long absences just aren’t an issue any more…

Many trainers are now able to get a horse to run at its peak after a long period on the sidelines - but few are better at it that Nigel Twiston Davies…

I don’t actually have any data to back up that statement (maybe one or two of you do !) – but I can recall many examples, over the past few years, when Twiston Davies has brought back a horse to win after a long absence.
Invariably these horses are running over fences – so Foxbridge ticks that box as well.

If you ignore his absence, then Foxbrige looks a very interesting animal…

Owned by Dai Walters (the guy who set up Ffos Las race course), he started life with Twiston Davies, before transferring to the yard of Nicky Henderson.

He ran 3 times for Henderson: in a novice hurdle at Ludlow – and then in 2 very competitive handicap hurdles – one at Ascot and one at Sandown.

On both occasions, he was sent off 7/2 favourite: the first time in a field of 14 novices (when he injured himself): and the second time in a field of 17 (when apparently he struggled in the very soft ground).

Strong market support in such competitive races, suggests that someone thought he was well handicapped. The fact there were good reasons for both of his disappointing runs, makes me feel more comfortable about supporting him today.

That said, there is clearly a lot of guesswork involved.

He has only run 5 times under rules in his life – plus a PTP win in his native Ireland.

And again, that’s a piece of ‘evidence’ that I feel adds to his case: PTP winners are invariably better suited to fences than they are to hurdles.

Ofcourse there is a very real chance that I might have read this completely wrong – in which case, this looks a wide open race.

I can understand the support for Cloud Creeper (though is does seem to have been over done a bit): whilst we were on Rhapando last time out, when he ran very well at Doncaster; Ergo Sum looked an improved performer last time out; whilst it would also be possible to make a case of sorts for 2 or 3 others.

In short, if Foxbridge wasn’t running in the race, then I wouldn’t be tipping in it – but he is, and I’m hopeful that Nigel Twiston Davies will have worked the oracle on him, in the same way he has done many times in the past, on horse with similar profiles…

0.25pt win Foxbridge 10/1

I was quite interested in Chicklemix, in the handicap chase at 2:10.

I certainly think she will be winning quite soon – though I suspect she might just need to drop a few more pounds first.

That said, 12/1 early was tempting – and the current 8/1 strikes me as a more accurate reflection of her chances…

However, she does face at least a couple of dangerous looking rivals in the shape of Don’t do Mondays and Carli King.

Ideally she will show some promise – and finish a well beaten third – then next time, we can be on to her !

Snowell is the one that interests me in the novice handicap chase at 2:40.

He ran very well on his chasing debut last time out, when he would have finished closer but for being badly interfered with rounding the home turn.

It’s reasonable to expect him to have come of for that initial experience, which very much makes him the one to beat today.

However, he has been priced up accordingly – and I think he faces at least one dangerous rival, in the shape of Henri De Boistron.

He made his chasing debut at Sedgefield at the end of October and jumped appallingly – but still finished very well to take fourth place.

Clearly he has an engine – and if Tom George can sort out his jumping, there is likely to be masses of improvement in him.

There are two of interest in the final race on the card…

Firstly, favourite, Theregoesthetruth, who won well over course and distance just last week: and secondly Regulation…

After just 2 runs over hurdles, Regulation is of huge interest off  a mark of 113. He is rated 93 on the flat - and if he could run to that mark over hurdles, he would probably be 20lb well in today.

However, the big concern is his stamina. He’s not really been getting home over 2 miles – so a step up to 2m4f seems like a strange move.

Maybe he will settle better in the first time hood – but he will need to !
On balance, Theregoesthetruth is the safer option – but don’t be surprised if Regulation puts in a big run.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

Leicester 1:10 Foxbridge 0.25pt win 10/1

 

Mentions

 

Leicester 2:10 Chicklemix (C )

Leicester 2:40 Snowell (O )

Leicester 3:10 Regualtion (C )

 

Top Picks

 

None