Review of the day

So many days, we (I) have high expectations – and we get nothing…

Today, we (I) had no expectations – and we got 2 winners !

Hmmmm…

And there is one reason why we were on two winners today – ‘value’…

Now I know that a lot of people don’t really get ‘value’ and feel that a winner is a winner etc.

And certainly I can list countless examples of horse that I didn’t tip because I felt they didn’t represented ‘value’ – and they then went on and won.

However, I can also list a fair few winners, who I have tipped simply because they were ‘value’…

First thing this morning, I was toying with tipping Fergal Mael Duin – but just didn’t feel there was sufficient ‘value’ in the quote of 6/1.

He went off an 11/4 shot, so you could argue I was wrong – but that was my judgement.

Similarly, I was toying with tipping Karinga Dancer – but felt there was little margin in a price of 13/2. As he traded around even money, jumping the third last, that decision could also have been questioned.
Caid Du Berlais was another one that I ducked, mainly because of the price…

On the other hand, I tipped Count Guido Diero, because I felt there was a good deal of juice in a price of 16/1.
Similarly, Granadads Horse may have been a 3/1 shot – but I felt his chance of victory was more like 6/4.

All value calls – and all went our way.

As you know only too well, it’s rare that happens.

I knew we were due one of the other types of days 

Ultimately, this game is all about judgement calls – if your judgement is good enough, you’ll win in the long run: if it’s not, you won’t.

The biggest issue I currently have is that there aren’t sufficient races/prices worth getting involved with.

The early morning markets are generally a joke – and it’s very difficult for me to tip later in the morning, whilst also producing a write-up (as half the time, I don’t know what I should be writing !).

There are no easy solutions to that one, so I’ll just have to continue to juggle things as best I can.

With regard to the actual performances of the horses today:

The there’s not a lot I can say about Count Guido Diero. It was an open race – and he just jumped and travelled a bit better than his rivals.

He definitely looks the type who could win again.

Grandads Horses race panned out precisely as I envisaged – apart from the last 100 yards !

He was clearly idling in front – but thankfully the line came in time (I did fear another Jack the Gent moment !).

I suspect he might now have earned a rest – but could easily stay competitive once re-assessed (as the handicapper can’t really give him much more than 2 or 3lbs for todays win).

The days other Top Pick, First Mohican, looked a tad unfortunate not to collect.

He fell at the last when still holding every chance. However, his jockey was playing a dangerous game in tracking his main rival and hoping to out-sprint him.

He was always going to need a good jump at the last – and on an inexperienced horse, that can never be guaranteed.

The mentions also played ball today: with creditable runs in defeat, from 2 of them (Caid du Berlais was pulled up after a bad mistake).

I don’t know, maybe very poor Saturdays are the way forward after all 

TVB.