Daily write-up - Dec 3rd

There are 2 NH meetings this afternoon, at Ludlow and Catterick…

On initial inspection yesterday, I had high hopes for the Ludlow card.

A trio of class 3 races raised my expectations for a busy day.

However, as the markets gradually took shape, it became apparent that it wasn’t going to be that busy, after all…

The horses I fancied (or half fancied), gradually made their way to the tops of the market – and that’s where most of them now sit.

As a consequence, we’ve ended up with just a small tip on the day – and it has to be considered very speculative !

However, if Oyster Shell does consent to race today, I think we’ll be on a horse with a very good chance, at a very big price (and that doesn’t happen too often !)

Here’s the rationale.

Ludlow

2:40

If Oyster Shell had not gone to the track, a week last Monday, I think he would be second favourite for this race – priced up around 4 or 5/1.

However, he did – and for whatever reason, he disgraced himself…

Unruly in the paddock, he didn’t want to know when he got to the post –and pointedly refuse to race.
Now, I have followed this horse for a number of years – and the display was totally out of character. He’s always appeared to be a completely game and genuine horse.

So how do we explain away his antics..?

In all honesty, I’ve no idea – but what I do know, is that having done it once, trainer  Henry Daly will almost certainly have taken steps to prevent a repeat,

Ofcourse, he may be wasting his time- the horse’s head might have gone – and that’s a risk we are taking.

However, if last time was a one off – then we are getting massive value on a horse with a real chance.

Prior to his antics that day, Oyster Shell was disputing favouritism for a very tight handicap.

That was partly down to an excellent run first time out at Wetherby, when he finished second to Nikos Extra.

He looked as if he would come on for that run, so really should have been spot on last time.

Again, ignoring the last ‘run’, Oyster Shell was previously a progressive horse – whose course and distance win 12 months ago, showed that he is well suited by todays conditions.

His handicap mark is on the rise - but that is merely a reflection of his progressive profile.

Assuming he jumps off OK today, I can see no reason why he won’t run a very big race.

The biggest danger is clearly the Venetia Williams trained Vivaccio.

He was also a course and distance winner last time out (of the same race that Oyster Shell had won 12 months earlier) but a 10lb rise in the handicap will make life tougher for him today.

All things being equal, I don’t think there should be a lot between the pair.

The fact that one is 6/4 –and the other 20/1 therefore makes me feel we’ve got ample compensation for the possibility that Oyster Shell might not jump off.

Let’s just hope he got out of bed on the right side this morning !!

0.25pt win Oyster Shell 20/1

I really wanted to tip Kingsmere in the 2:10 race – but I just can’t…

In truth, I think it’s a 3 horse race (him, Roll the Dice and Gorsky Island) – but they head the market, and he’s the riskiest of the 3.

It’s always difficult to know what represent ‘value’ in a case such as this…

There are 12 horses in the race – so, if they all had equal chances, it would be 11/1 the field.

I would be prepared to say that the 3 I’m interested in, would win the race at least twice as often as the others – so they should be 11/2.

That’s the price on Kingsmere – whilst the other 2 are shorter.

However, I think it is right that they are shorter, as they are less risky.

I’d make Roll the Dice favourite – but 3/1 offers no value.
I’d make Gorsky Island second favourite – but similarly, 3/1 offers no value.

I’d make Kingsmere third favourite – and 11/2 seems about right (maybe 5/1 or possibly 9/2).

Consequently, I can’t really see an angle on the race – unless I start looking at 33/1 shots who I feel should be 20/1…

The positives with Kingsmere are the trip, the ground, the distance, his handicap mark – and the fact it looks like he might have been targeted at this race.

The negatives are his jumping – particularly in a big field – and the opposition (at least 2 of them).

I did get very close to tipping him – but ultimately decided it not quite worth the risk.
You ofcourse, may decide differently…

It was a similar story with Stephanie Francess in the mares hurdle at 1:40.

I thought I would be able to tip her because I thought she would be neglected in the betting.

She ran disappointingly last time out – and is held by Cloudante on form from last season.

She also faces a couple of decent rivals in Mystery Drama and Pass the Time.

On the flip side, I think her last time out form can be ignored (because she didn’t handle the ground) and she will be better suited to todays speed test…

I honestly thought she would be 6/1 or bigger in the betting, in which case I would have tipped her.

At 9/2, I see very little margin and so have to pass…

Finally, in the novice handicap chase at 1:10 I would possibly have been tempted by a speculative play in Six One away at 20/1, if the stable of Paul Webber was in any form at all

The horse has shown virtually nothing – but as a consequence, gets to run off a mark of 90 – and is taking on some seriously limited rivals.

But I just can’t take a risk on horse coming from a stable in such woeful form (around 1 winner in the last 70 runners – with most of the horses running poorly).

Catterick

There is very little worthy of mention at the Yorkshire track.

The only thing that really caught my eye (apart from the obvious), were the two Paul Gilligan horses, Harangue and Churchfield Champ, both returning to the track just 1 day after performing really well at Southwell.

A lot will depend on how they have come out of yesterdays exertions. However I‘m sure this was always the plan – and Gilligan does have an excellent strike rate with his UK runners.

Certainly Churchfield Champ, who is currently a 16/1 chance for the handicap chase at 2:50, might be worth a risk at that kind of price…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead.

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

Ludlow 2:40 Oyster Shell 0.25pt win 20/1

 

Mentions

 

Ludlow 1:10 Six one Away (S )

Ludlow 1:40 Stephanie Francess (P )

Ludlow 2:10 Kingsmere (P )

Catterick 2:50 Churchfield Champ (C )

 

Top Picks

 

None