Sunday 7 December 2014

Review of the day

I have to admit that I’m finding it a bit of a struggle at the moment…

It’s not as if I’m reading things poorly – but, for whatever reason, they just won’t drop into place.
At the moment, it feel that if I were to flip a 2 headed coin, it would land on its edge !

I targeted two races today – and managed to tip the winner in neither of them – but that really doesn’t tell the whole story.

In the mares hurdle at Leicester, I couldn’t split Sunshine Buddy and Theregoesthetruth.
There was nothing between them the last time they met – and I felt it should have been the same today.
At the early morning prices (11/2 and 4/1), we therefore had to be with Sunshine Buddy – and that decision was vindicated at the off, when they were returned 7/2 joint favourites.

Bu that’s not how it panned out in the race.
I don’t think either was particularly well suited by the lack of early pace – but whilst ultimately it proved too much for Sunshine Buddy, Theregoesthetruth managed to over come it and record a comfortable victory.

I could easily have put up Therecomesthetruth as a saver – but instead I opted for a reverse forecast on the pair.
Fine lines…

In the second race that I tipped in, I did put up a saver, in the form of Harrys Retreat.
He was behind the main pick, Champagne N Caviar, whom I tipped early this morning.

Now I’ve talked about my discomfort at tipping early into these weak markets and today events are only going to add to my paranoia…

Not too surprisingly, the initial surge of our money, saw Champagne N Caviar shorten in the betting to 6/1 best (from 15/2) - but then the drift began.

By the off, he was 16/1 with the bookmakers at 20+ on BF.
Like I say, maybe I’m being paranoid, but there was no way on this planet, that horse should have been a 16/1 shot.

In the race itself, he was ridden quite aggressively and he made a few mistakes.
If fairness, he’d done similar last time, so such a performance wasn’t completely out of the blue.
All the same, riding a horse too aggressively is a sure way not to win – and not to incur any interest from the stewards.

And yet despite this, we still looked like collecting on the race, as Harrys Farewell layed down his challenge to Quite by Chance, approaching the last.
But he just couldn’t get passed the leader – who hung on tenaciously.

It was another tough one to take…

So far as the mentions were concerned, then they all ran pretty much as I would hope mentions would (well – but not quite well enough).

Pod could never slip the field in the opener at Wincanton – and was collared rounding the home turn. He will need to drop a few pounds – and drop a race class - if he is to recapture the winning thread.

Bucks Bond could only finish fourth in the Silver Buck chase – but he was beaten by Ziga Boy and Silver Commander; whilst Miracle Cure finished a fair third in the following race.

At Leicester, Pearls Legend managed second place – a long way behind all the way winner, Malibu Sun.

Whilst at Clonmel, today was clearly the day for Saddlers Luck, as he was backed into 7/1 fav (from 16/1 early).
He raced prominently - but he didn’t try to make all. Instead, that card was successfully played by Zipporah. He was 25 lengths clear rounding the home turn and never really looked like getting caught.

Finally, Fortisa managed a distant third in the 2 mile handicap chase.
Like I said this morning, he’s not a 2 miler (and in truth, wasn’t ridden as if anybody thought he was).

Hopefully tomorrow will bring a change of fortune…

TVB.

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