Daily write-up - Dec 6th

An extremely busy day, with meetings at Aintree, Sandown, Chepstow and Wetherby – plus Navan in Ireland.

Not only is it an extremely busy day – but it is a day full of top class action (you could almost argue, too full !).

There are a series of ferociously competitive fields at Aintree – and Sandown isn’t much better.

The competitive nature of the racing has slightly diluted my desire to take things on – but just as much as that, is uncertainty over the ground…

I sighed when the rain started falling on the eve of the Paddy Power meeting, in the middle of November – but at least when the ground gets heavy, you know where you stand (or more accurately, squelch !).

However a couple of weeks without rain, have seen the going starting to quicken up again – but not in a consistent fashion.

Take Aintree today, for example.

Apparently the ground is good on the Mildmay course (fences) – but good to soft on the Mildmay course (hurdles) – and soft on the National course…

And that’s just the best guess.
Simply we won’t know how it is riding until it is too late.

Similarly at Chepstow, the ground is apparently good to soft – good in places.

Chepstow in December: good in places -  they are having a laugh !

But then again, maybe they aren’t…

If I could be confident over the ground, we would have double the number of bets we have today.

If the ground conditions were as I would have expected at this time of year, it could have been triple !

However, with the uncertainty that exists, I feel only able to tip in the races where I feel confident there is an edge – or when the state of the ground isn’t that important.

I also tend to have a bit of an issue tipping on a day following a decent winner. Simply, I don’t feel as strongly about any of today’s selections, as I did about Adrenalin Flight.

Hopefully that won’t stop them winning – but it does make me more cautious about issuing them.

Here’s the rationale – and a few other thoughts…

Aintree

1:00

A 10 runner race, but I’m happy to put a line through around half the field, which immediately makes it look quite attractive from a betting perspective.

I’m happy to discount Carrickboy, Kings Grey and Galway Jack, on account of ground or fitness.

I’m not particular taken by Dineur or Big Casino, and whilst Our Mick once had the ability to win this in a canter, it’s questionable how much of that ability remains.

That leaves, 4 – the two favourites, Distime and Baileys Concerto – plus Bincombe and Quito Du Tresor.

I’m happy enough to take on Baileys Concerto, at the prices. He’s been very progressive – but I don’t think he now has much in hand of the handicapper.

I think Distime might still be ahead of his rating – but for a horse with fragile legs, the prevailing good ground, must be a concern.

Decent ground is precisely what both Bincombe and Quito Du Tresor require.

The former still has plenty of scope for improvement – and will hopefully demonstrate that his running out last time, was just an aberration..

In fairness, he more went very left, rather than ran out – so the configuration of todays track should suit him much better than that of Wincanton (which is right handed).

Quito Du Tresor has less scope for improvement – but is getting himself reasonably handicapped – and is also running back into form.

He’s run 3 times so far this autumn and has improved with each run.

He should be at his peak today; gets his preferred quick ground – and is on a mark that he is capable of winning off.

He sets the standard for the race (despite his price).

Now there is every possibility that something will improve past him – but I think it’s a fair bet that more than 2 of his rivals won’t (particularly when there are serious question marks over a number of them).

In short, with conditions in their favour, I think it is worth a spilt bet on Bincombe and Quito Du Tresor.

0.25pt win Bincombe 7/1

0.25pt EW Quito Du Tresor 16/1

1:30

This is just about the most competitive race I’ve ever seen over the Grand National fences – aside from the big race itself.

24 runners – barely a handful that can be dismissed from calculations – and at least a dozen with the potential to go very close.

It’s going to take some winning !

In order to justify a bet in the race, I think you need a horse with exceptional credentials – step forward Saint Are…

Firstly, whilst accepting that form over the Mildmay course has little relevance with form over the Grand National course, it is still interesting to see that Saint Ares only two wins in this country, have been recorded at Aintree.
From that, you can deduce he likes the stables – if nothing else !

It also helps his case, that he comes from the massively in form stable of Tom George.

Ideally I would have liked to see Paddy Brennan in the saddle – but as he’s at Sandown riding Gods Own in a grade 1 chase, I can forgive him his absence.

The big thing about this horse however is his handicap rating.
Simply, he could have 20lb in hand of his current mark – and if that’s the case, he is likely to win today (assuming no mishaps along the way !).

The assessment of his rating is based on his win over the Mildmay fences, back in April 2012. He won a competitive chase on Grand National day, off a mark of 137 – a full 10lb higher than he races off today.
As a result of that win, his mark was pushed up to 145 – and he actually ran well of that rating, at Cheltenham, the following December.
However, generally, his form was in decline – which is presumably why he was moved to the stable of Tom George.

He made his debut for George in the staying chase at the Paddy Power meeting –and ran a massive race to finish third behind Sam Winner and The Druids Nephew.

That really is top class form – and more than that, I thought Saint Are was going to win the race, as they approached the home straight.

However, the combination of the extreme distance, the heavy ground and the fact that it was his first run in 6 months seemed to catch him out and he weakened close home.

That run did however suggest hat he retains all his old ability – and if he can build on it (and I can see no reason why he shouldn’t), he simply has to go close today (granted the luck in running that you always need when tackling the Aintree fences).

Let’s put it this way – even in the field he faces today, I doubt there are any better handicapped horses…

0.25 pt win Saint Are 14/1

3:15

Unlike the Becher chase, I really don’t think that this race is particularly competitive…

Now, don’t get me wrong, there are still half a dozen or so who I think could win – but they are all at the head of the market.

In truth, I’ve had Rebel Rebellion in mind for this race, since I watched his two runs at Chepstow is October.

He raced over a trip too far – and then a trip too short – and on both occasions, showed that he was bang in form, but still managed to drop a few pounds in the ratings.

Job done !

Clearly this has always been the plan – and understandably so.
Rebel Rebellion won this very race last season - and after those 2 Chepstow runs, gets to race today off a mark just 5lb higher.

In fairness, todays race does look a too classier than last seasons – with the likes of Rolling Aces, Hunt Ball and Champion Court running – but as a result, Rebel Rebellion gets to run of a very nice weight (11st exactly).

In addition to the 3 already mentioned, I would nominate Dolatulo, Persian Snow and Benny’s Mist as possible dangers – but I prefer the chances of Rebel Rebellion to all of them.

He’s already shown that today’s test suits him perfectly; he’s reasonably weighted- and has been targeted at the race.

Ofcourse, he will need a bit of luck in running – but if he gets that, he simply has to go close.

0.5pt win Rebel Rebellion 8/1

I was initially quite interested in Tap Night in the handicap hurdle at 2:05 – but I can’t understand why Lucinda Russell’s stable Jockey, Pete Buchanan is on Frankies Promise.

Maybe there is a good reason – but if there is, it’s eluding me (and putting me off Tap Night !).
Assuming Tap Night isn’t the one, then there a number of progressive hurdlers the race could fall to.

Secrete Stream was impressive at Wetherby last time out - and maybe he will be up to today’s task as well.

The conditions chase at 2:40 has a very open look to it – and I would be quite keen to take on favourite, Holywell…

I could be interested in Sam Winner – but 3m1f on good ground is unlikely to be sufficient a test of stamina.

Ma Filleule should be the one of official ratings – but she was very disappointing on her seasonal debut at Down Patrick.

As a result, Medermit may win the race by default – but I would struggle to tip him based on such negative logic…

Sandown

3:00

I was going to swerve this race because it looks very open – but instead, I’m going to take a chance on Hinterland…

Now, he’s not a horse I particularly like – and he is coming here on the back of 3 disappointing runs – but he has plenty of ability and todays race may not take that much wining.

Certainly in the absence of Spritner Sacre and Sire De Grugy, it has a very open look about it.
Balder Succes and God’s Own are both decent horses – but as yet they are not world beaters. Whilst everything else in the race, has a big (or very big !) question mark over it…

And ofcourse, that’s the case with Hinterland.

However, he looked good when he won the Henry VIII novice chase on this card 12 months ago – and I always thought it significant, that Paul Nichols then put him away and ran him in the Queen Mother Champion chase at last seasons festival (when, on the book, he would have gone very close in the Arkle).

He was brought down in that race (when still travelling perfectly OK) and followed that up by running a shocker at Aintree, behind Blder Succes.

However, he broke blood vessels that day – and he did the same again on his reappearance at Exeter.

I’m sure that part of his issue is that he pulls incredibly hard in his races – so it’s very interesting to see a hood applied of the first time today.

I also feel that in Noel Fehily, he has the jockey most capable of settling him in a race, on baord.

At the end of the day, it might all go horribly wrong again - but if Hinterland does run as well as I think he is capable, then I think he is in with a very big shout this afternoon.

0.25pt win Hinterland 16/1

Earlier on the card, I think that Dunraven Storm can outrun his odds in this seasons renewal of the Henry VIII novice chase.

He beat Vibrato Voltat at Cheltenham last time out – and even on 4lb worse terms, I wouldn’t be surprised if he confirmed the form this afternoon…

Court Minstrel is probably the best horse in the race but once again the ground has (probably) gone against him; whilst I feel Irish Saint still has a lot still to prove for a horse priced up at 6/5…

There is a disappointing turn out for the London Chase that closes the card – and worse than that, there is no obvious angle into the race…

Theres no Panic won the race 12 months ago, but will likely find the ground too soft today: whilst Emperors Choice will likely find it not soft enough !
What’s Happening may find the trip too far (though he may not !); whilst Tales of Milan is probably not good enough.

As a result, Kasbadali  is the most likely winner – but he’s favourite and has a bit of an absence to overcome (though that’s unlikely to be an issue, in fairness).

Chepstow

The most striking thing about the meeting at Chepstow, is the presence of Paul Townend, who has 5 rides for Rebecca Curtis.

Now young Townend might not be quite as shrewd as Davy Russell – but I doubt he’s travelled over for a day out.
He’ll have some winners – the question is, which ones..?

If the ground were soft (or better still, heavy), then I would be very keen on his mount, Doing Fine in the novice handicap chase at 12:55.
He beat Caroles Destrier on his chasing debut at Ffos Las – but disappointed next time out at Wetherby.

That race was run on quick ground however, which I don’t think really suited him.

If it’s the same today, I would foresee a similar outcome – but if it is riding soft, then I could see him bouncing back.

A difficult one to call without proper knowledge of the ground – so in the circumstances I felt I had to pass.

It’s the same story with Awaywiththegreys in the handicap hurdle at 2:35.

He’s running off the mark he was successful from, in a similar race, over this course and distance, last December. He ran a reasonable race in a better contest last time out – and with the trainers son in the saddle, taking off 7lb, his chance is there for all to see,

That possibly explains why he has been very well backed this morning – and I too would have been all over him, on heavy ground (or even soft). On good ground however, the case for him just isn’t as compelling.

Another one that I felt I had to pass, on…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Aintree 1:00 Bincombe 0.25pt win 7/1

Aintree 1:30 Saint Are 0.25pt win 14/1

 

Late

 

Aintree 1:00 Quito Du Tresor 0.25pt EW 16/1

Aintree 3:15 Rebel Rebellion 0.5pt win 8/1

Sandown 3:00 Hinterland 0.25pt win 16/1

 

Mentions

 

Aintree 2:05 Tap Night (C )

Aintree 2:40 Medermit (C )

Sandown 1:50 Dunraven Storm (S )

Sandown 3:35 Kasbadali (P )

Chepstow 12:55 Doing Fine (C )

Chepstow 2:35 Awaywiththegreys (C )

 

Top Picks

 

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