Daily write-up - Dec 4th

There are 3 NH meetings in the UK this afternoon, at Wincanton, Leicester and Market Rasen – plus a further meeting at Clonmel, in Tipperary…

Before I start on to the racing, just a few quick words on the questionnaire/survey.

Thanks again to everyone who has returned theirs. If I’ve not yet got round to replying (and addressing any questions/concerns you may have raised), I will.

I just want to make sure that I do them all justice.

If you’ve not yet responded then I would be really grateful if you could.

If nothing else, I am extremely keen to gauge interest in the future proposals (which I am considering for next season).

I personally think they could represent an improved service for all of you – but if you don’t view it the same way, it would be silly of me to go down that path…

With regard to today, then there is certainly no shortage of action – and plenty of possible opportunities. The tricky thing on a day like today, is figuring out where to focus your efforts..,

The small fields at Market Rasen didn’t do a lot for me – so I left that card alone.

I didn’t bother much with Clonmel either – though there are a couple of mentions from there.

The majority of my efforts went into the Wincanton card – and to a lesser extent the Leicester card.

I’ve ended up with tips in 2 races – one at Wincanton and one at Leicester.

Here’s the rationale – and a few other thoughts on the day…

Wincanton

3:20

Champagne N Caviar caught my eye last time out, when he ran in a decent novice handicap chase at Fontwell.

That was his first run for Charlie Mann – and his first of any sort for 18 months.

He was very keen that day (a trait he has demonstrated previously) – and made a number of novicey mistakes (he nearly fell at the very first fence) but despite that, he ran really well to finish runner up to a potentially very useful sort, in Kings Lad.

It was reported post race, that he lost 3 of his 4 shoes during the race – so, in the circumstances, it really was a run of some merit.
Ofcourse, with it being his first run for 18 months, there is always the chance he could ‘bounce’ today – though as he’s still only 6 years old, I think that unlikely.

That said, against more experienced opposition today, I think he will need to settle a bit better - and improve his jumping (not to mention keep all his shoes on !) – but with the benefit of that initial run under his belt, I think it is quite reasonable to think that will happen.

Certainly he looks like a horse with plenty of scope, so if he can build on that run, I think he will take some beating.
Not that this race will be a formality.
I was quite keen to take on overnight favourite, Ray Diamond, who won a micky mouse race in the mud at Uttoxeter last week.

However there are others in the race who do look dangerous…

Top weight Quite by Chance is an unexposed chaser: whilst Wayward Frolic also has untapped potential, after along time on the sidelines; Shy John should be sharper on his second run under rules and I wouldn’t discount Sunny Ledgend running a big race at a huge price.

All this said, the one that worries me most, is Harrys Farewell…

I was keen on him for his seasonal debut at Exeter, but he ran no sort of a race.

If he can bounce back form that run today, then I suspect he is very well handicapped on a mark of 112.

I think he is worth a saver at 9/1…

0.5pt win Champagne N Caviar 13/2

0.25pt win Harry’s Farewell 9/1

In the opening race on the card, I think Pod sets the standard…

We were on him last season when he got chinned on the line at Taunton – he went another 6 races with no joy – but finally broke his duck at Plumpton, in October.
That was over 2 miles – the first time Pod had raced over that trip for a couple of seasons, and post race, his connections said they felt the shorter trip was the key to his improvement.

They turned him out 9 days later at Taunton, over an extra 3 furlongs (!) – but it was under a penalty before his revised handicap mark kicked in, so I can forgiven them that.

He was still travelling fine that day, but met one of the fences wrong and paid the price.

I’m sure he will attack from the front this afternoon – and try and jump his rivals into submission.

A lot will depend on how he jumps and travels – but if he does get into a rhythm, he won’t be easy to pass.

I would be happy to take on favourite, Sportsreport, at the prices – and Fuse Wire is a ‘quirky’ individual (to put it kindly !).

The one most likely to hunt him down, is therefore Moonlight Maggie.

My issue with her, is that she isn’t very big and therefore struggles with her fences – she also stopped as if shot last time out and the application of a first time tongue tie is consequently a bit of a concern.

If Paddy Brennan can get her jumping however – and the tongue tie has the desired effect, she will probably win.

If that’s not the case, then Pod might well hang on – though I have a feeling that something will inch past him close to the line.

The big race on the card is the Silver Buck handicap chase at 2:15.

I reckon this lies between Zinga Bay and last years winner, Bucks Bond – but as they are first and second favourite for the race, I’m not early telling you anything you couldn’t work out for yourselves.

I would target prices of around 3/1 on the former and 9/2 on the latter, before I would consider getting involved

If there is to be a turn up it will most likely be provided by Silver Commander on his first start for Philip Hobbs.

He is third favourite for the race however...

I’ll move on…

In the handicap hurdle at 2:45, I could be quite interested in the Venetia trained Miracle Cure, on his second run in a handicap.

He shaped OK on his first run at Leicester – that was in very heavy ground and the winner stole a march on the rest of the field, that day.

Miracle Cure has been dropped 3lb for the run and should be much better suited to today speed test (he’s a 93 rated flat horse).

The trouble is, it’s a 12 runner race where plenty can be given a shout. At a best price of 11/2, Miracle Cure represents minimal value…

Leicester

2:35

I think the 2 to concentre on in this mares handicap hurdle, are Sunshine Buddy and Theregoesthetruth…

The two met at Chepstow at the beginning of last month and Sunshine Buddy came out on top, by a couple of lengths.

Theregoesthetruth is 3lb better off today, so according to the book, there should be virtually nothing between them.

Sunshine Buddys was running for the first time in 10 months, that day, so you would expect there to be some improvement in her (she has run subsequently).

However, it was only Theregoesthetruths second run for new connections, so it’s quite possible there will also be improvement in her.

Both horses finished well that day over a 2 mile trip, so the step up by half a mile today, is also likely to see a bit of improvement.

I guess there are a couple of things that slightly sway me in favour of Sunshine Buddy.

Firstly the booking of Jack Sherwood, who is excellent value for his 7lb claim: and secondly the prices.

Sunshine Buddy is 11/2, Theregoesthetruth is 4/1.

That’s a fair sized difference, considering I struggle to split them.

It’s not something I plan to do very often, but I think with them so closely matched, and me believing they have the best form in the race, a tiny reverse forecast on the pair, seems like quite a good call…

0.5pt win Sunshine Buddy 11/2

0.125pt Reverse forecast Sunshine Buddy and Theregoesthetruth

The other race of potential interest on the Leicester card, was the handicap chase at 2:05.

The one that interested me most in the race was Pearls Legend – but as I was unsure about tipping him at the 6/1 on offer last night, there is no way I’ll be getting involved at the 4/1 currently on offer…

The reason I wouldn’t be prepared to take that price is because I can see 3 or 4 real dangers…

Clan Williams looks a justifiable favourite, for an in form yard - assuming he is suffering no ill effects form his last time out fall: whilst Malibu Sun won a fair race over hurdles last time out – and could easily follow up, back over fences today.

When you add into the mix, potential dark horses such Ulis De Vassy and Lawsons Thorn, you end up with a race that is a bit too competitive to be taking a shortish price in.

Clonmel

There are plenty of runners at Clonmel this afternoon – but just 2 races/horses of interest…

In the Martinstown Opportunity handicap hurdle at 1:50, I could be very interested in Saddlers Luck – provided he was ridden from the front…

I mentioned last time he ran, that I’m sure this horse will win a race such as todays – but he’s untippable because until the race starts, you don’t know how he will be ridden.
To get the best from him, he needs to front run – last time he was ridden with significant restraint.
His handicap mark has remained unchanged – so it could easily be the same story today.

I suspect the market will reveal tactics before the race begins – but if that’s not the case and he does begin prominently, I’ll be tempted to back him in-running on Betfair (even at  slightly reduced odds).

Our old friend Fortisa gets his second start of the season  - this time over fences – in the handicap chase at 2:55…

I expected to be on him today – but I didn’t expect him to be running over 2 miles…

I know he has pace – but I just don’t see him as a 2 miler.

I think he will run well (because he’s that kind of horse) – but I would expect one or two of his rivals will have too much toe for him, over the minimum trip.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Wincanton 3:20 Champagne N Caviar 0.5pt win 15/2

 

Late

 

Wincanton 3:20 Harrys Farewell 0.25pt win 9/1

Leicester 2:35 Sunshine Buddy 0.5pt win 11/2

Leicester 2:35 Sunshine Buddy/Theregoesthetruth 0.125pt Reverse Forecast 

 

Mentions

 

Wincanton 12:35 Pod (O )

Wincanton 2:15 Bucks Bond (P )

Wincanton 2:45 Miracle Cure (O )

Leicester 2:05 Pearls Legend (O )

Clonmel 1:50 Saddlers Luck (S )

Clonmel 2:55 Foritsa (C )

 

Top Picks

 

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