Daily write-up - Dec 21st

They race this afternoon at Lingfield and Fakenham in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland.

Win, lose or draw, today is likely to be my last day tipping, before Boxing day (Friday).

There is a meeting at Bangor tomorrow, but a quick look at the 5 day decs suggested it was unlikely to be of any interest (though I will confirm, either this evening, or tomorrow morning).

I do plan to take a week or so off, over the Christmas/New Year period.

My current intention is to tip on the 26^th,27^th and 28^th.

I will take off some time between the 29^th and January 5^th – though I’m not sure exactly when.

I’ll let the quality of the racing influence my decision – but I’ll keep you informed.

With regard to today, then the 2 UK meetings are both quite interesting.
I spent a fair while on each, as I felt both cards contained races that I could solve.

I reckon I did solve a few of them – but unfortunately, the betting agreed with me (either early on – or by this morning).

Consequently, we have been left with just one tip.

I probably messed up a bit on the issuing of that – so apologies.

First thing this morning, Strange Bird was 3/1 with every bookmaker on odds checker. She was also 4.1 on Betfair (so a little bigger than 3/1).

Her main market rival, Finish the Story, appeared to be getting backed – so I felt I was safe not issuing her early.

I was hoping her price might drift a little, but instead, she was heavily backed on Betfair.

All of the money down to 3.7 was taken in one hit (a few hundred pounds).

When I saw that happen, I issued the tip – but her price was already starting to go with the bookmakers.

I doubt many of them took anything on her at 3/1 – but Betfair warned them of what was happening.

If the bookmakers have no liabilities on her, then I guess the price might drift out as the off time approaches.

So long as you have secured a price with BOG, I guess it won’t matter.

Suffice to say, at the price and with the staking, I think she will win.

Here’ the rational – and my other thoughts the day.

Lingfield

1:10

Strange Bird really is a horse that needs no introduction to regular readers.

We were on her last season when she dotted up at Plumpton – and we weren’t this season, when she did similar at Lingfield...

That was a mistake on my behalf – one that I don’t intend to repeat.

She was a very easy winner at Lingfield – and whilst she beat little that day, I was a little surprised to see that the handicapper deemed it only worth a 5lb rise. I think he might have been lenient.

I guess that ultimately she only won by a couple of lengths, so he couldn’t really give her much more than 5lbs – but she certainly looked value for a good deal more than that.

The runner up in that race, Leith Hill Legasi, re-opposes today – and whilst, according to the book, there should be very little between them at the revised  terms, I’ll be surprised if Strange Bird can’t confirm the form.

I’ll also be a little surprised if she can’t take care of the favourite, Finish the Story.

He won a very weak race at Southwell last Sunday – and whilst his riders claim will off set the penalty he got for that win, I’m still not sure that he’ll be ideally suited to carrying nearly 12 stone in the Lingfield mud.

If he’s within a fence of the leaders turning in, then I guess Promised Wings could be given a chance - but he’s a horse that tends to get so far behind in his races, he gives himself little chance of success.

With What’s for Tea a stone out of the handicap, that leaves Where’d Ya Hide it and The Flying Column as the two I fear the most.

If this were a better quality race then I wouldn’t fear them very much – because both are massively out of form and look very limited.
However, at this basement level there is always the chance that a change of equipment, or tactics will produce huge improvement.

Where’s Ya Hide It gets a tongue tie and blinkers – plus Paddy Brennan in the saddle: whilst The Flying Column gets cheek pieces and Tom Scudamore (and was sent off favourite last time out).

I guess my point is, there is no such thing as a certainty when you are operating at this level.

I’ve covered my stake on the last 2 named – if the race is won by one of the other 3, more ‘obvious’ dangers, I’ll accept it !

Hopefully that won’t be the case – and Strange Bird will power home unchallenged, again..!

0.75pt win Strange Bird 3/1

In the handicap hurdle at 1:40, John Louis, looks the one to beat.

He was 7/4 last night with Ladbrokes – which would have been very tempting.
However, he’s a general even money shot this morning – which looks about right.

There’s a danger he might even go odds on, so too short for a Top Pick.
Just a mention then.

The best race of the day, is the handicap chase at 2:10.

Our old friend Bincome runs in this and he must have a fair chance of following up his Aintree win, off a mark just 3lb higher.
The trouble is, there are plenty he can be taken on with.

Tolkeins Tango was massively impressive last time out – though todays heavy ground is a worry for him; whilst Ivors King would have a definite chance if fit for his seasonal debut (and the market suggests he is).

You couldn’t categorically rule out any of the remaining 4 runners either –with Paddy the Stout, particularly catching my attention.

He gets to run off a feather weight today – and the conditions will be ideal for him.

There is a chance he will be outclassed – but if this turns in to a war, he could spring a surprise.

At 14/1 I was half tempted…

Finally, Sportsreport looks the one to be on in the handicap chase at 2:40 – but the price of 15/8 looks about right.

Fakenham

It’s hard to look beyond Be Bop Boru in the opener on the Fakenham card – until you see the price..!

Even money is a bit tight – though it’s not easy finding which one will beat him…

Changeofluck, Seaviper and Mistral Rein, all have a chance of sorts.

If forced, I would side with the first named – certainly 14/1 is a fair enough price.

I really thought/hoped we would be on Dashing George in the handicap chase at 2:00.

He did is a massive favour last season over this course and distance, and off an 8lb lower mark – and on the back of a good run last time, you have to fancy his chances of doing the same today.

I guess I was being a bit naive hoping that no one else would notice him.

Superficially, he’s a horse that will be 13 in a fortnight – with form figures that suggest he is in decline.

Unfortunately nowadays people look deeper than that.

He opened at 5/1, which I thought was short – and was then backed into 3/1 !

He’s on the drift this morning - and he might well be 5/1 again, by the off.

I think he could win – but he will need a few things to fall right.

If he had been 8/1 or better, we would be on him. But you can give a chance of sorts to all of his rivals – and a few of them are still improving (he definitely isn’t).

It would all comes down to price.

I certainly wouldn’t get involved at less that 5/1. 6/1 or greater, I would probably take a risk.

You’ll have to make your own minds up as race time approaches…

Six one Away is another one that I thought might go under the radar in the 3:00 race – but again, I was wrong.

He was a mention last time at Ludlow – and ran really well until tiring close home.

He has been dropped 3lb for that run – and cut back by half a mile in trip.

I could see him going close - thought there is a chance that the last time out run flattered him.

I would have taken a chance at 5/1+ - at 5/2, I’ll happily just watch him…

Finally, Thecorrupter is of some interest in the novice hurdle that closes the card.

He caught my eye in a decent bumper at Ascot - but didn’t show much on his hurdling debut at Warwick.

He will need to have improved for that run, but if he has, I think he will go close.

The trouble is, all of the field are unknowns, so there is just too much guesswork involved to make him a tip.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Lingfield 1:10 Strange Bird 0.75pt win 3/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Lingfield 1:40 John Louis (P )

Lingfield 2:10 Paddy the Stout (O )

Lingfield 2:40 Sportsreport (P )

Fakenham 1:00 Changeofluck (O )

Fakenham 2:00 Dashing George (P )

Fakenham 3:00 Six one Away (P )

Fakenham 3:30 Thecorrupter (S )

 

Top Picks

 

Lingfield 1:10 Strange Bird