Daily write-up - Dec 13th

They race this afternoon at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Lingfield in the UK – plus Tramore in Ireland.

I have to say that this is probably the worst Saturday, in betting terms, that I can recall in the 3+ years I’ve been tipping…

I’ve come to expect woeful racing during the week – a series of small uncompetitive fields – but come Saturday, the reverse is generally true.

Well not today !

There’s actually piece on it, in todays Racing Post.

Apparently 14 of today’s 21 races were re-opened, due to small fields.

And even after that, only 8 of the 21 races have fields big enough to support EW betting on the first 3 – and in 6 of those, there are only 8 runners, so a single non runner, will mess up the place terms.

The feature Cheltenham meeting, is a virtual non event, in betting terms…

There are only 2 handicaps on the card – and neither of those really sets the pulse racing.

And whilst there is some quality in the 5 other races, in each of them, the favourite is forecast at 6/4 or less.

Fine if you are into lumping on ‘good things’ I guess, but not really much use to the likes of us…

Things need to be sorted out. Simply, there is too much racing – for the horses available.

As a result, prize money is pathetic – and field sizes are getting to be the same.

We’re in danger of having no sport to bet on.

The number of fixtures/races needs to be drastically reduced – but the bookmakers don’t want that to happen.

It’s a sorry state of affairs, but in a competitive world, people will look elsewhere for their action.

Hopefully someone in the BHA will be strong enough to sort it out – though I’m not holding my breath…

Anyway, moving on to what racing there is – here are my thoughts…

Cheltenham

The big race of the day is the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup and whilst it may not be the highest quality 2m5f handicap ever run on the course, it is at least a competitive contest…

When assessing the race, there are 5 runners who stand out – but unfortunately, they occupy the first 5 places in the betting…

Caid du Berlais won the Paddy Power Gold cup at the last meeting and off a mark just 5lb higher, he is a worthy favourite today.

The biggest issue would seem to be his ability to carry an extra 12lb (he’s not the biggest animal). However, he carried a similar burden at Aintree last spring, so I suspect he will get way with it.

Attaglance also has Cheltenham big handicap form. He finished an unlucky second at last seasons festival and on a line through Present View, he has a definite chance of beating Caid du Berlais today.
The issues with him, are that he can miss the odd fence – and he doesn’t have the same scope for improvement as Caid de Berlais…

Ericht finished well behind Caid Du berlais in the paddy Power – and strictly on the book has little chance of turning the tables. However, he was bang in the firing line until making a mistake at the penultimate fence. He wouldn’t have beaten Caid that day, regardless – but he wouldn’t have been beaten that far, either. His yard of Nicky Henderson is now finding some form – and with Barry Gerraghty back on top, he has to be of interest.

Barrakilla has no Cheltenham handicap form, but does look very progressive and potentially well handicapped.

His lack of big race experience might be an issue today – as might the quick ground – but if he gets away with them, he should go close.

No Buts is the other one in the race, who is of particular interest. He was a very impressive winner last time out at Newbury – but has risen 10lb in the handicap as a result of that win.
As a consequence, he is now badly handicapped with Barrakila on their Sandown form.

Pretty much all of the other runners in the race, look as if they are up against it, from a handicapping perspective.

It would actually be the two rank outsiders, Workbench and Carrigmorna King, that I would be most interested in.
The former still has some scope, as he’s only 6 years old: whilst the latter will be much more at home under today’s quicker conditions, than he was last time – and he represents the red hot, Hobbs/Johnson combination.

They might be worth tiny speculative plays – but I think the race is most likely to be won by Caid De Berlais, with Attaglance and Ericht the biggest dangers.

The handicap chase at 1:25 is the only other race on the card, where tipping would have been possible…

Now down to just 7 runners, it has a bit of a lop-sided look to it, with Bold Henry and Solar Impulse dominating the betting.

There is a chance that Astracad has been targeted at a race run in memory of it’s owners wife – but I honestly don’t think that’s the case.

Karinga Dancer has more potential than most of his rivals – but his jumping will be severely tested by the Cheltenham fences.

Whilst it’s quite possible that both of the outsiders could run big races – though it would be a little surprising if either were to come home first.

In short, I can’t really see an angle into the race.

It might have been worth taking a chance of the jumping of Karinga Dancer at the 10/1 on offer last night – but at 13/2, he’s too much of a risk.

As for the other races on the card:

Then I have no strong view on the 3 year old hurdle; I would expect Champagne West to win the novice chase at 12:50 – though with just 3 runners, tactics could play a part in the outcome.

Port Melon might well be good enough to take advantage of the weight concession form Blaklion in the novice hurdle at 2:35 – but again, pace in the race might be an issue.

There should be no pace issues in the International hurdle at 3:10 – and consequently The New One should prevail.

Vanituex is likely to follow him home – with Zamdy Man third.

Whilst in the finale, I think Volney De Thaix might prove a big too sprightly for Rock on Ruby.

I could also see big runs from Lac Fontana and Brother Brian – though again, it’s a  race where lack of pace could be an issue.

Lingfield

12:20

My original intention was to tip Fergal Mael Duin in this race…

I think he is quite a well handicapped horse – and the fitting of cheek pieces and a tonight tie today, suggest that connections mean business.

He was 6/1 early – but that price was under pressure.

And whilst I was tempted buy it, I didn’t feel there was a lot of margin.

His jumping can be a little risky – and in truth, this is a race where pretty much all of the runners can be given a chance.

Consequently, I’ve decided to go with Count Guido Diero…

He is the outsider of the field – but I think he has a fair chance of springing a surprise.

He actually beat Fergal Mael Duin, when the two met over hurdles at Towcester, 18 months ago and on today’s terms, he should confirm that form.

Ofcourse, a lot of water has passed under the bridge since then, but all the same…

Of more relevance however, is Count Guido Dieros runs over fences, last season.

After unseating his jockey on his seasonal debut at Ascot, he caused a bit of a surprise when taking a decent handicap chase at Wincanton on Boxing day.

That race was run in very heavy conditions – and Count Guido Diero simply ran his rivals into the ground.

He was raised 7lb for that win, but after a couple of below par efforts, he’s been dropped by 4lb, meaning that he runs off a mark today, just 3lb higher than when he was last successful.

I think that makes him attractively handicapped – particularly as he has plenty of scope for improvement.

In fairness, that could also be true for a few of his rivals – but non of them are 16/1 shots !

0.25pt win Count Guido Diero 16/1

The other race of potential interest at Lingfield, is the handicap hurdle at 2:05…

I was initially quite interested in Here’s Herbie – but was disappointed to see that the market had found him.

I then turned my attention to Flying Eagle, with Sean Bowen aboard – but I suspect he might need the run (though he has been well backed this morning).

Finally, I came across Harristown, For Charlie Longsden – and with Charlie Deutsch on board.

If I were to tip one in the race, it would be him.

Though it would mainly be because of the price (he’s 6/1 now – and bigger on Betfair).
In truth, I think any result is possible, so there is little margin at that kind of price.

Doncaster

1:40

A little like No Duffer yesterday, I simply don’t get why Grandads Horse can be backed at 3/1 this afternoon…

It’s a 5 horse race – and all of his rivals appear out of form.

He on the other hand, is in the form of his life – as he showed when winning a really competitive race at Ascot, last time out.

Whilst it is true, that was a class 3 race – and todays is class 2 – I don’t think the quality of the respective fields, backed up that classification.

The field at Ascot contained a number of in-form horses – and Grandads Horse won it with real authority.

It’s a bit surprising that he only got a 4lb rise for that win – but less surprising, that his connections have decided to keep him on the go for a bit longer to see if he can pick up another prize.

And I guess that’s the main concern with him – it could be a case of going to the well once too often.
The trouble is, when I look at his 4 rivals ,I struggle to see which one will beat him.

Night in Milan is a Doncaster specialist – but running from a career high mark today – and won’t particularly like the rain softened ground.

Forgotten Gold finished fourth last time out at Haydock – but that was a laboured effort – and he’s only been dropped a pound for it.

Whilst Ikorodu Road and Herdsman both contested the Bangor race won by Howards Legacy – and neither showed very much.

As a result they are both a little lower in the weights – and should be a bit sharper for the run – but hardly appear primed to win.

My hope is that Grandads Horse will settle in behind the pace setting Night in Milan.

I can see Forgotten Gold staying competitive to the home straight - with the other 2 struggling behind.

I would like to see Daryl Jacobs set Granddads Horse alight between the final 2 fences - and for him to cruise home unchallenged.

That’s the theory, anyway !

0.5pt win Grandads Horse 3/1

On a very uninspiring Doncaster card, the only other race of interest, is the handicap hurdle at 1:05…

I could see Kashmir Peak running well in this, but First Mohican could prove different class…

He’s rated 100 on the flat, so you have to think he can be competitive off a mark of just 129 over hurdles.

He should be better for a run in the November handicap – and I suspect that first time up, is the best time to catch him over hurdles.

His price might end up short – but I think anything above 6/4 is acceptable.

I’m going to make him a Top Pick and hope the price doesn’t end up silly…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

Doncaster 1:40 Grandads Horse 0.5pt win 3/1

Lingfield 12:20 Count Guido Diero 0.25pt win 16/1

 

Mentions

 

Cheltenham 1:25 Karinga Dancer (C )

Cheltenham 2:00 Caid Du Berlais (C )

Lingfield 2:05 Harristown (O )

 

Top Picks

 

Doncaster 1:05 First Mohican

Doncaster 1:40 Grandads Horse