Daily write-up - Dec 14th

There are 3 meetings this afternoon, at Southwell and Carlisle in the UK – and Navan in Ireland.

It’s pretty standard fayre for a Sunday – a couple of reasonable meetings in the UK – and a slightly better one at Navan.

I looked at a couple of the races at each of the meetings and ended up with 1 tip – and a few mentions.

Here are my thoughts…

Navan

2:30

I’ve got to be honest, I’ve been waiting for Rubi Light to run in a race like todays, for over a month.

A 2m4f handicap, on soft ground.

I could – and maybe should – have issued him as a tip first thing.

He was 12/1 in a couple of places – but not all the bookmakers were priced up and I thought he might drift a little.

I was wrong on that score.

Hopefully I won’t be wrong in my assessment of his chances today…

I’ve been following Rubi Light, for literally years.

I clearly remember him winning the grade 1 John Durkan chase at Punchestown 3 years ago – and I’ve watched pretty much every race he’s competed in since then (and there have been a lot of them !).

He did threaten to make it to the very top – and was actually rated 168 by the UK handicapper, when he competed in the 2012 Ryanair chase at the Cheltenham festival.

He was never going to win that race however, as Rubi Light needs soft ground to perform at his best.
And when he gets soft ground – and 2m4f , there are not many better chasers around.

After a cracking start to his 2013-14 campaign, when he almost beat Sizing Europe at Gowran. He rather went off the boil.

The suggestion was that, despite only being 9, he was maybe in decline – but I’m not so convinced…

He debuted this season in the Clonmel Oil chase in the middle of November – and ran an absolute stormer, behind the potentially top class Champagne Fever.

He was a bit too fresh that day, but jumped and travelled with the kind of zest he showed when at his peak.

I felt that next time was the time to be on him – but was a bit surprised to see him cut back to 2 miles and running in a competitive handicap at Fairyhouse.
Maybe not to surprisingly, he didn’t have the speed to cope with that trip – but still ran a very good race to finish a staying on fourth.

If nothing else, that run confirmed that he certainly wasn’t gone at the game.

And so on to today…

2m4f soft ground – and a handicap mark he would have laughed at, when in his prime (or indeed, just 12 months ago).

The danger is that he bumps into one today. The race is a bit stronger than I would ideally like, with Abbey Light, King Vuvuzela and Mount Colah – to name but 3 – all dangerous looking rivals.
That said, it’s unlikely that any of them are grade 1 performers – Rubi Light was and hopefully he will demonstrate today, that he’s still not far off that level.

0.5pt win Rubi Light 10/1

The other race at Navan that I studied closely, was the handicap hurdle at 1:30…

You wont see many more ferocious handicaps run all season – and yet despite that, I’ll be a little surprised if the winner comes from outside the top 3 in the betting..

Dara Tango, Harvey Logan and Lite Duties have all got the profile/ability required to take a race such as this.

Collectively, I would make them close to an even money shot – which suggests that one of them should have been worth tipping this morning.

However, the one I fancy most, is Dara Tango – and he was 11/2.

There might be have been a bit of value in that price - but not a lot. And as Caid du Berlais showed yesterday, the trouble with these high profile, ultra competitive races, is that something can always go wrong.

Of the others, then Pencilhimin will doubtless run his usual honest race – whilst bottom weight, Maguires Glen , looks quite interesting, at a huge price (40/1).

Carlisle

I was very tempted by Big Water in the 12:45 race – both as a tip, and as Top Pick.

He won a very strong looking novice handicap chase at the track, early in November, which suggested he was a horse to follow.

However, he followed that up by disappointing badly at Doncaster on his next touting…

That is a worry – however the Doncaster race was run on quicker ground, so maybe that was the reason.
If it was, then I think he will take the world of beating today.

5/2 early seemed like a very fair price, in a race where Midnight Belle appears by far the biggest danger.
That said, I am always a bit nervous about going in on short priced horses in relatively poor races as your are always vulnerable to some big improver.
Add into the mix the concerns arising from his last run and I just couldn’t quite bring myself to tip him.

Putting him up as a Top Pick remained a possibility – but he’s now 6/4 – and I wouldn’t want him on side at any less than that.

As a result, he can only be a mention…

The other race I studied at Carlisle, was the handicap hurdle at 2:35…

One for Harry is the most interesting runner in this – and again, he could easily have been a tip.

He was an impressive winner at the track at the beginning of November –and followed that up with a run in the fixed brush final at Haydock.

He was still going well enough in that race, hen he took a peculiar looking fall at the final flight in the back straight.

He’s been given long enough to get over that experience, so I wouldn’t expect it to be an issue today.

What might be an issue however is stable mate Wicked Spice. He was ridden to victory by Davy Russell at Doncaster last time –and Noel Fehily gets the call today (for his only ride).

An Poc Ar Buille also looks dangerous – along with one or two others. In short, I just can’t see enough in the price of One for Harry (6/1), to take the risk (and a drift on him wouldn’t convince me either – bearing in mind his stable companion is a big danger).

Southwell

By a process of elimination, Trojan Sun looks the one for the opener on the card.

That said, he was a beaten favourite in this race 12 months ago – and was well beaten on his seasonal debut – so his case isn’t with blemishes…

However, it is still significantly stronger than that of most of his rivals.

I could quite happily dismiss half the field – and would see Tafika as by far the biggest danger – if we knew he was fit enough to do himself justice.

In fact, in that situation he would be the selection – which makes it difficult to go over board on Trojan Sun.

All the same I think him the most likely winner, with the knowledge we currently have…

I could be quite tempted by Debt to Society in the following race on the card – but it is a low grade event.
He was unlucky enough to win a race last time out, which was subsequently voided on a technicality.

As a consequence, he is effectively running today as an unpenalised winner.
More than that, the victory showed him effective in todays conditions.

Its harsh to call him unreliable – but he is certainly limited. He has won 4 races – but 3 of them were sellers.

He should be good enough to win today – and I feel a bit harsh not making him a Top Pick – but I just don’t feel comfortable getting involved with such low grade animals.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

Navan 2:35 Rubi Light 0.5pt win 10/1

 

Mentions

 

Navan 1:30 Dara Tango

Southwell 12:05 Trojan Sun (O )

Southwell 12:35 Debt to Society (C )

Carlisle 12:45 Big Water (P )

Carlisle 2:25 One for Harry (O )

 

Top Picks

 

None