Daily write-up - Dec 2nd

There are 2 NH meetings today, at Southwell and Sedgefield.

Before I start on the days racing, just a quick word of thanks to those of you who have already retuned your questionnaire.

I will reply properly to everybody – but that will take time and I’ll have to fit it in with other things.

I realise that surveying people is a dangerous thing to do.

It raises expectations – and there are so many conflicting views, it’s simply impossibly to keep everyone completely happy.

In a way, that’s why the service works in its current format. I suspect that very few of you think it’s perfect – but there are aspects of it which you all enjoy/profit from (which is why you subscribe !).

The danger of me changing it, is that I take away some of those aspects.

The danger of me not changing it, is that it becomes blunt, as it tries to be everything to everyone…

I’ll digest all the responses – and consider the best way forward.

I certainly won’t be making any knee jerk reactions.

With regard to todays racing then there are some quite interesting races – and quite interesting runners.

It’s been the same old story in the early markets though – the horses of interest that were initially attractively priced, have now halved in price; whilst the ones of interest that weren’t so attractively priced, have been pushed out by half a point !

Re-iterating what I said yesterday, it does make tipping tricky…

There was nothing I felt sufficiently strongly about to tip – but there are a few mentions worth considering – and a Top Pick !

Here are my thoughts…

Southwell

Cruising Bye is the one that interests me in the opener…

He came up against a rapid improver last time out (Smiles of Miles) and gets to run off the same mark today.

The application of cheek pieces – and Sean Bowen in the saddle, just add to his appeal.

5/1 is a very fair price to beat most of todays rivals – but Typical Oscar, with AP on board, has to be a big worry.
He is unexposed, seemingly improving – and has come in for sustained market support.

In theory, an EW bet on Cruising Bye might be the way to go. But if Typical Oscar is thrown in, you would be battling to just get your money back.

On balance, probably not worth the risk…

I was very taken by the performance of Gold Ingot, last time out at Doncaster.
He finished second behind Saints and Sinners that day (we were on Rhapnando, who fell at the last).

Gold Ingot was one of the horses that was well supported in the market last night – but he is easing slightly this morning.

Ballymoat looks the danger (assuming his last time out fall has not affected his confidence) – but I think Gold Ingot can probably take care of him.

However,  both Churchfield Champ and O’Callaghan Strand are potentially well handicapped, if rediscovering their form…

Gold Ingot is almost a Top Pick – but there are a few too many possible dangers.

Just a mention then…

Macs Return in the one that interests me, in the novice hurdle at 1:15.

Previously in the care of Pail Nicholls, he was disappointing on his two runs for him (he started quite short priced favourite for a 16 runner maiden hurdle on his debut at Ludlow).

He has his first start for Dan Skelton today – though he remains in the ownership of John Hales.

The market will likely tell us if Dan has found the key to the horse - and if he has, I could see him going close.

I could also be interested in Skeltons Rascal, in the following handicap hurdle.

He ran in a fair race on his seasonal debut at Ascot, before getting out paced when cut back in trip, next time out.

He’s pushed up in trip by a mile today –and the cheek pieces are enlisted.

If they have the desired effect, he could be up to taking advantage of a fair looking handicap mark.

Sedgefield

If the Skeltons are the guys to watch at Southwell, then I think it could be Alex Dunne at Sedgefield…

She’s never had a runner at the track previously, but takes two up there today.

When I first looked at the card, yesterday, I thought I would be tipping Helium in the 2:00 race.

He ran a sound race on his recent seasonal debut, when beaten by a couple of very progressive sorts.

He has been dropped a pound for that run and today runs off a mark just 1lb higher than the one he was successful off at Taunton, back in January.
His profile is quite compelling – but unfortunately he is taking on a field of dangerous looking sorts…

Serenity Now, Light the City and Nautical Twilight all look capable of taking a race such as this – whilst Silver Shuffle has potentially more ability than them all, and would almost certainly win, if the tongue tie applied today, has the desired effect.

Add into the mix Benzaano, Todd and Lord Sam – who are all capable of being competitive – and you end up with a puzzle that is just too complex to be confident over.

I would expect Helium to run his race – and that could well be good enough to get him placed, but I suspect there might be one or two better handicapped than him today.

Whatever, Helium should give Alex Dunn a nice sighter, for her ride on Zero Visibility in the novice handicap hurdle at 3:00.

This one was scheduled to run at Plumpton yesterday but was withdrawn, apparently on account of the going.
Well, it measured 5.2 on the Goingstick yesterday – and it measures 5.0 on the Goingstick today.
This sounds like a horse with pretty precise ground requirements to me !  :O

Whatever the actual reasons, it does look very interesting that Zero Visibility is brought all this way today.

Baltic Pathfinder is potentially very well handicapped on his chase form – but has been dropped massively in trip.

That might work for him – or it might not.

Him aside, I’m struggling to see too many dangers and would probably make Zero Visibility the best bet of the day.

In fact, I think he just about warrants being a Top Pick !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Southwell 12:15 Cruising Bye (O )

Southwell 12:45 Gold Ingot (P )

Southwell 1:15 Macs Return (S )

Southwell 1:45 Rascal (O )

Sedgefield 2:00 Helium (O )

 

Top Picks

 

Sedgefield 3:00 Zero Visibility