Daily write-up - Dec 28th

The abandonment of Leicester, leaves just 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Catterick in the UK – and Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.

Nothing much grabbed me at the Yorkshire venue, so my attention yesterday evening was very much focused on Ireland…

Actually, that’s not entirely true, my attention last night was mainly focused on responding to all of the congratulatory emails that you guys sent me, following the successes of yesterday afternoon !

As most of you know, I’m not a big bettor myself – and it certainly suits my psyche much better to find winners for you, than it does to try and make it pay myself.

I therefore get a great deal of satisfaction from hearing your stories of success…

I’m only aware of two of you, who put all of the selections in Lucky 31s.

One to a 20p stake and the other to a 30p stake.

I don’t think either managed to get the best prices available – yet the first picked up just shy of £1K – and the second, almost £1.5K.

If Foxrock and French Opera had managed to grab successes, both guys would have won life changing amounts.

We really were that close…

Of the other stories I received, then my favourite was probably from Nick - who treated his good lady to a KFC out of his winnings ! 

Us TVB guys sure know how to celebrate 

On to today, and with just 3 meetings, things are relatively quiet.

I’ve found a couple of tips at Leopardstown (unfortunately, Pricewise tipped one of them before I got chance – which was a bit irritating) and a couple of tips in one of the Limerick races.

Just a quick update on my plans for the next week or so:

I plan to take off most of the next week – and I will look to return properly on Tuesday 6^th January.

That said, there is a slight chance that I will tip on the first 3 days of this week (Mon-Wed) – and I almost certainly will tip on New years day (Thurs).

During this period, I’ll advise the evening before, on whether I am likely to tip (to give you maximum notice).

Whatever, I won’t be tipping next Fri, Sat, Sun or Mon – as I’ll be away from home (so you will definitely get a lie in then !).

Hopefully you’ll work things out as we go along – I’ll keep you updated via email, as I always do…

Anyway, on to the rationale behind todays tips – and a few other thoughts…

Leopardstown

1:50

It was just before 8:00 yesterday evening, when I got round to looking at this race properly…

As always, I worked my way through the runners – and came up with the horse I felt most likely to win the race.

Generally, the horse I find (assuming there is one), tends to be sitting at – or close to – the top of the betting (particularly in a race such as this).
I was therefore, genuinely shocked (and a bit excited !) to see Jetson available to back at 10/1.

Unfortunately that excitement turned to disappointment, just after 8:00, when the priced turned spectacularly blue on odds checker –and I realised that Jetson had been ‘pricewised’…

Hopefully some of you managed to get the 10/1 price reversion with B365 this morning (they held it for at least 10 mins) – if not, 7/1 or greater, is definitely fair enough…

The reason I’m so keen on Jetson, is not only because he has ticks in just about every box (trip, ground, distance, fitness, track) he also holds the favourite, At Fishers Cross, on form at the Punchestown festival in April.

Jetson caused a bit of a shock that day, when beating super mare Quevega – with At Fishers Cross back in third. However, there was no fluke about the performance – and with a nice warm up run at Fairyhouse under his belt, I think Jetson is ready to step back into the limelight and take another grade 1 contest this afternoon…

Jetson was beaten by Lieutenant Colonel in his Fairyhouse comeback race – but he was conceding race fitness that day – and running over a trip short of his best. I’ll be a little surprised if he can’t reverse the form this afternoon.

The biggest dangers in today race are likely to come in the shape of the Willie Mullins trained due, Zaidpour and Briars Hill..

However, as I’ve said previously I’m not a massive fan of Zaidpour – and as Ruby (and Paul Townend) have presumably overlooked Briar Hill this afternoon (the suggestion being that he needs the run), the case for Jetson looks very strong indeed.

So strong in fact, that I’m going to chance my arm and make him a Top Pick.

Fingers crossed then !

0.5pt win Jetson 8/1

2:55

A truly fascinating renewal of the Lexus chase – and one that is certainly not easy to solve…

Bobs Worth won the race 12 months ago – and is probably the best horse in this years renewal. However, first time up, in heavy ground – I’m not so sure…

The heavy ground won’t suit Lord Windermere either; and whilst you can’t be as categoric about Road to Riches, he will still have it all to prove on the softest surface he has raced on…

You can see how Tom Segal ended up with Sam Winner (who will love the ground) – but he is very one-paced…

If it turns into an absolute war, he could be the one – but if they don’t go hard from the off, he’s likely to get done for foot when the pace quickens…

If you could be sure that Carlingford Loch was tuned to the minute, he could be very interesting. The market will likely tell the tale with him (if 14/1 becomes 7/1, I would suggest you join the plunge !).

The one truly dark horse in the race, is Home Farm…

Trained last season by Arthur Moore, he joined Henry de Bromhead over the summer and seemed to put up a much improved performance when winning on debut for him at Thurles.

He beat Foildubh that day – and would likely have beaten Hidden Cyclone.

The suggestion is that he ran to a rating in the mid 150s – over a trip short of his best – and on his first run of the season.

It’s not unreasonable to expect some improvement from him today, particularly now he is back running over a more suitable trip. And whilst he is likely to have to improve around 10lb in order to take todays contest, as an unexposed 7 year old, that is not beyond the realms of possibility.

Whatever, I felt him worth a small play at a big price, in a race that looks very open indeed.

0.25pt win Home Farm 25/1

Earlier on the card, Dara Tango will take the beating in the handicap hurdle at 12:50 – though top weight in heavy ground, won’t make it easy for him.

The other one that caught my eye, was Usual Smurfer…

He is well handicapped compared to his chase rating: should handle the ground – and has won after an absence.

He’s another that is likely to be backed, if fancied – but the 20/1 currently on offer makes a bit of appeal.

The beginners chase at 1:20 looks a cracker…

The top 4 in the market all look potentially useful sorts – but the same can also be said of Art of Payroll…

He’s yet to jump a fence in public, so comes with risks – but if he does take to the bigger obstacles, I could see him running a big race.

He might be worth a speculative risk at the 14/1 generally on offer.

Limerick

1:35

I expected to be all over Foritsa in this race – but a couple of things have tempered my enthusiasm…
Firstly, the absence of Adam O’Neil in the saddle. O’Neil has struck up a really good relationship with the horse – and his 7lb claim is invaluable.

It is therefore a little disconcerting to see that he has apparently jumped ship and is instead riding top weight, Come to The Party.

There may be good reasons for that – but if there are, I’m not aware of them so I have to see it as a negative.

Secondly, the presence of The Book Thief in the field.

He ran an absolute stormer last time out (despite what the RP comments might say !) against a couple of decent sorts.

That was his second run back after an absence and suggested that he should be cherry ripe for this afternoon.

As this is a veterans chase, then inevitably, most of the runners are on the decline.

I found it quite easy to put a line through around half the field (including our old friend Jadanli, who will always have a special place in TVB hearts !).

Foritsa is the one horse in the race, who is probably not in decline.

He is obviously a horse we know very well (as he won for us twice last season) – and whilst he has disappointed on his two runs this season, there were good reasons for those runs (seasonal debut & trip too short).

Everything is perfect for him today (trip, ground, fitness, track) – apart from the jockey booking.

I still felt he was worth a shot.
The Book Thief is more risky – but he’s a bigger price and if I read his last run correctly, he is another who is ready to put up a very big run.
Let’s hope one of them manages to come home in front this afternoon.

0.25pt win Foritsa 7/1

0.25pt win The Book Thief 14/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Leopardstown 1:50 Jetson 0.5pt win 8/1

 

Late

 

Leopardstown 2:55 Home Farm 0.25pt win 25/1

Limerick 1:35 Foritsa 0.25pt win 7/1

Limerick 1:35 The Book Thief 0.25pt win 14/1

 

Mentions

 

Leopardstown 12:50 Usuel Smurfer (O )

Leopardstown 1:20 Art of Payroll (S )

 

Top Picks

 

Leopardstown 1:50 Jetson