Daily write-up - Dec 20th

There is NH racing this afternoon at Ascot, Haydock, Newcastle and Fairyhouse.

As was the case the last time Ascot and Haydock shared the Saturday spotlight, the racing is excellent - there really was little need for me to look elsewhere for tips.

In fairness, the Newcastle card isn’t too bad (it is better than most midweek cards) – and whilst the Fairyhouse card generally doesn’t really set the pulse racing, the presence of Un De Sceaux in the opener most certainly does !

Make sure you tune in early to watch him blitz his rivals !!

With regard to tips, then we have ended up with 6 of them, across 5 races…

The majority were issued at 6:00 yesterday evening, which is not something I really like to do – but I think subsequent events helped justify my actions…

The on-line version of the Racing Post is released at 8:00 – and it identified Safran De Cotte and Via Sundown as two of the Pricewise tips for today.

If I’d not sent them early, then that would have given us two issues.

Firstly, the prices of the horses are instantly crushed – so we would be relying on the early morning reversion by some of the bookmakers, in order to get on.
And secondly, I would have been very reticent to tip the horses at all…

Partially because of the issue with the prices – and partially because it would seem a bit poor tipping two Pricewise horses the following morning…

I’ve said before, but it’s a tricky business this tipping…
Balancing all of the different components – and still making a profit.

Let’s hope I got the balance right this afternoon.

Here’s the logic behind the tips – and a few other thoughts…

Ascot

1:50

As I’m sure most of you will recall, we were on Bellenos the last time he ran.

That was in a 2 mile handicap chase at the Ascot meeting run in the middle of November.
I was very keen on him that day – but he ran no sort of a race.

The only thing was, the run seemed just too bad to be true – so it was a bit of a relief to find out subsequently that he finished lame…

That said, it still slightly tempered my enthusiasm for him today – but at a bigger price, in a much smaller field, I felt he was worth another risk.

In fairness, there may be less runners today, but most of them can be given a chance.

Based on the Ascot run, then Lancetto is the one to beat – but he is rising 10 and has been installed as favourite. If he wins, I can accept that…

Ballgarvey was also potentiality interesting. He is potentially well handicapped – but has been off the track for along time – and I’m not sure that the track/trip combination will provide quite the stamina test he requires.

Of the others, then I expected Bellenos to get the better of Ulck de Lin last time – and I expect the same today.

Malibu Son is improving – but today represents quite a step up in class for him. At the prices, I can accept watching him win. Whilst Last Last Shot was a bit disappointing last time – and looks in the grip of the handicapper (even if he’s the sort that Venetia tends to excel with !).

In summary, in an open race, I think Bellenos has a big chance, provided he can bounce back to his best after a disappointing run last time out.

0.5pt win Bellenos 5/1

3:00

When I looked at this race, I was quite taken by how many of the runners, I was prepared to oppose…

Top weight Hublon des Obeaux will need to be borderline Gold Cup class, if he is going to defy a rating of 161. Ofcourse, he comes here on the back of a mighty run in the Hennessy – but I’m sure his colossal effort that day must have taken a toll…

Similarly Hey Big Spender arrives on the back of a huge last time out performance. But he got an 11lb hike in the weights s for that – and will be 12 in a fortnights time.

I’m not saying he can’t win – but he will be doing very well to do so.

The trip would be a big concern for Sound Investment; Whilst Paul Nichols other runner, Polisky, just doesn’t like to come home first (literally, he stops when he hits the front !).

Up to Something doesn’t look particularly well handicapped – which left me 4 to focus on…

The fast improving, The Young Master is probably the most interesting of the quartet.

He ‘won’ the Badge Ale trophy last time out – but is 14lb higher today. As a consequence, he is taking on much better animals today. He might be up to the job – but a price of 3/1 doesn’t leave much margin for error.

Ardkilly Witness can be backed at double that price - and with a first time visor in place, he looks sure to run a big race.

He may just lack a bit of class – but I would expect him to run very well.

I could also see Le Reve running a big race. He ran well enough in the Hennessey last time under an aggressive ride. It should be possible to ride him a little more conservatively in todays smaller field – and that should see him run even better.
The ground is the worry with him – as he doesn’t want it too soft.
Via Sundown will have no issue with the ground. He will also have no issue with the trip or the tack.

He was a very progressive novice last season  - and the big question is whether he has sufficient talent to justify a mark of 137.

I’m optimistic that he does - and I see the re-application of the cheekpieces that he wore in his native France as a positive sign.

He’s a risky selection in that he was pulled up last time out (in the Hennessy) – but I’m optimistic that he’ll be able to bounce back to form this afternoon and give us a good run for our money.

0.25pt win Via Sundown 16/1

3:30

I maybe should have left this race alone, but I simply couldn’t resist a small play on the bottom horse, Sea Beat…

He’s a horse that I noted both last season, when he won a maiden hurdle at Naas – and more recently when he was a strong finishing third in a conditions race on the flat, at Galway…

On both occasions he struck me as a horse likely to win a big handicap hurdle this season  - I just didn’t expect it to be the Ladbroke !

And that’s part of his attraction here. As I’ve said before, I’m a big fan of his trainer Arthur Moore – there are few better target trainers in Ireland – so I find it fascinating that he has targeted Sea Beat at this race.
There will be numerous races run at Leopardstown and Limerick over the Christmas period that he could have gone for – but no, he’s opted instead for Ascot.

Ofcourse, it’s a very valuable race – which I’m sure was the deal clincher - but all the same…

If he’s not up to the job, then I’ll be a bit surprised if the winner doesn’t come from the top 4 in the betting.
Actival, Shelford, Balgary and Clondaw Warrior all have negatives to overcome  – but I’ll be a little surprised if at least one of them doesn’t overcome them and run a huge race.

Actival and Balgary literally could be anything (which makes them potentially very interesting) – though if the ground isn’t too soft, then Clondaw Warrior is probably the one to beat.

0.25pt win Sea Beat 14/1

The Tourard Man looks the most likely winner of the opening race on the card – but that’s what the market says, so no prizes for originality there…

In the novice chase I could see Puffin Billy getting the better of favourite Irish Saint.
I could also see Grand Vision running much better than his dismissive odds (16/1) suggest he will…

Whilst the Long Walk hurdle should really go to Zarkandar.

I could see Aubusson running well. But he’s rated 7lb inferior to Zarkandar – and Lizzie Kelly is unable to claim (another 7lb), therefore he has a stone to find on the book.
That might be a bit too much…

Haydock

12:30

When assessing this race, two things struck me:

Firstly, it is going to be run on very heavy ground (which I don’t think will suit all of the runners); and secondly, there is a frightening amount of pace in the race (which again, will not be to everyones liking).

Based simply on handicap marks and recent form, I think De Faoithsdream is the one to beat. However, I can’t see him relishing the ground – and he is one of a number that like to make the running. In short, his chances could be severely compromised by the way the race unfolds.

Suprise Vendor is another who likes to make the running – in fact, he doesn’t just like to, he insists on it !  

In short, he will go blazing off – with the pace of a 5 furlong sprinter, if necessary  - and he will make the running.

That is likely to compromise the chances of De Faoithesdream, Shooters Wood and Stagecoach Pearl, all of whom would also like to make the running – given the chance.

Ofcourse, there is a possibility that they will be able to tuck in behind and still get a nice run – but on balance, I think their chances are more likely to be negatively affected.

The strong pace in heavy ground, could easily see this turn into a stamina test –and Presumably that is part of the reason why Greywell Boy has been backed.

I can see the argument for him – but he looks to have very little in hand of his handicap mark.

It’s impossible to say whether Back to Bracka has anything in hand of his mark – as it was raised 8lb for his last time out win at Wetherby.

However that was in a decent race – and he won despite clouting a few fences.

He is certainly not short of stamina – and the softer Haydock fences should help him.

In a race that could easily be run to suit - and on ground that he will have no issue with, I thought him the most likely winner of the race.

The other one I want on side in the race, is the afore mentioned Surprise Vendor.

As I said, he will make the running – so the other potential pace setters in the race are an irrelevance to him !

He is quite well handicapped, will have no issue with the ground – and in the shape of James Reveley, has a jockey riding, who is at the very top of his game.

There is a chance that the race could become a bit tactical (in a weird kind of a way !) – and if that is the case and Reveley can ride a waiting race from the front, I think there is a possibility that he could spring a surprise.

A fascinating contest, whatever !

0.25pt win Suprise Vendor 20/1

0.25pt win Back to Bracka 9/2

2:05

The key to Safran De Cotte, is heavy ground – in fact, not just heavy ground, near unraceable ground – and I’m optimistic that’s what he’ll get today at Haydock.

When he gets those conditions, he is a very good horse as his record of 3 wins from 7 runs, testifies.

It was at this meeting 3 years ago, that he romped home in a handicap hurdle off a mark of 119 (he runs off a mark of 121 today). The ground that day was desperate – and he absolutely loved it.

Safran De Cotte has spent the past 3 seasons running over fences and whilst he is a proficient enough fencer, he is often let down by his size (he’s not the biggest of animals). Consequently the soft fences at Haydock and the low weight he has to carry are also positives for his case.

In fairness, he was pulled up when favourite for this race last season - but he was running off a 8lb higher mark that day – it was stronger race – and the ground wasn’t as bad.

I would be hopeful that he can at least improve on that performance !!

In terms of his rivals, then whilst I respect most of them, non of them look particularly well handicapped.

Conditions should suit both Firebird Flyer and Howards Legacy - but both are running off career high marks.

If he can put his best foot forward, Safran De Cotte should certainly run a very big race this afternoon.

0.5pt win Safran de Cotte 8/1

In the opener on the card, Goohar looks the one to beat – but 9/4 is plenty short enough about a horse who had a hard race just 8 days ago…

Whilst in the handicap hurdle at 2:40, Run Ructions Run is the one of interest – but there is no margin in a price of 4/1.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Early

Ascot 1:50 Bellenos 0.5pt win 5/1

Ascot 3:00 Via Sundown 0.25pt win 16/1

Ascot 3:30 Sea Beat 0.25pt win 14/1

Haydock 2:05 Safran De Cotte 0.5pt win 8/1

Late

Haydock 12:30 Suprise Vendor 0.25pt win 20/1

Haydock 12:30 Back to Bracka 0.25pt win 9/2

Mentions

Ascot 12:45 The Tourad Man (P )

Ascot 1:15 Puffin Billy (P )

Ascot 2:25 Zarkandar (P )

Haydock 12:00 Goohar (P )

Haydock 2:40 Run Ructions Run (O )

Top Picks

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