Monthly report - December

Starting with the headline figures:

TVB tips

Total staked: 20pts

Total profit: 21.88pts

ROI 109.4%

*The total figure, is based on getting the best generally available price at the time I issue the tip (with the stated bookmakers – including BOG, if offered).

I would hope this would be considered a ‘fair’ representation of what is achievable (with suitable commitment – and plenty of bookmaker accounts !)

It’s all a bit déjà vu: around comes December and I have a stormer !

It was exactly the same 12 months ago – though I didn’t quite manage to break the 100% ROI barrier for the month then.

Next December, I’m going be staking a bit more aggressively !

The 20pts staked during December spread across 51 horses competing in 45 races.

This is a slight reduction on the numbers for November, but that simply reflects the fact that that there were less racing days in the month.

This suggests to me that my decision making (what to tip – and what not to tip) and the staking, have been pretty consistent across the 2 months (which is good !)

Of 51 tips, then in terms of placings, they achieved the following:

1^st – 10

2^nd – 9

3^rd – 5

4^th - 4

I target 25% of the tips finishing first or second – but achieved over 37%, which is truly remarkable. Particularly so, when you looked at the odds that I tend to tip at.

Furthermore, in addition to the 10 winners, there were 9 horses that traded at 2 or less in-running.

That means that in the 45 races in which I tipped, we had a runner go odds on in 42% of them.

If you can find anyone capable of getting close to those kind of numbers, I suggest you sign up with them as fast as you can !

As you know, I like to look at the BSP of the tips I issued and compare it the advised price.

This was particularly interesting this month…

Firstly, if you have just backed all of the tips at the advised price and layed them off on BF at BSP, you would only have made 2pts profit (around 10%).

This is half the rate managed in November – which suggests the tips weren’t as good as the results imply !

However, what is really interesting is that the 4 tips whose prices reduced most (comparing advised price to BSP), all won – and the fifth best one was an unlucky second !

That really is an interesting angle – particularly for those of you who back at BSP – and like to get on the tips with positive market movements.

Talking of BSP, another unbelievable figure for the month, is that if you had blindly backed all of the tips at BSP, then to a level 1pt stake, you would have made 47.93pts (before commission).

That is an ROI of nearly 100% - at BSP !!

Clearly that isn’t sustainable (November recorded a 12pt loss at BSP) – but it is a hugely promising number non-the-less…

Similarly, in is nice to see that the Top Picks, once again delivered a very solid month.

There were only 8 of them (as usual, they ended up at the bottom of the pile, and were sacrificed as time pressures increases) – but as with last month, they recorded 3 winners and a profit of 3pts at SP – and slightly more at BSP.

Over the 2 months, they are now showing a 6pt profit on 15 pts staked (40% ROI) – and slightly better at BSP.

All very positive then – and when you add in the ante-post activity – which is over 10pts up (close to 300% ROI !) it clear that everything in the TVB garden is currently rosey !

The tricky part ofcourse, will be keeping it that way.

I would very much doubt that Decembers levels can be sustained for the remainder of the season – but we are at least starting the new year in an extremely healthy position.

TVB.