Monthly report - January

Starting with the headline figures:

TVB tips

Total staked: 13.25pts

Total profit: 13.5pts

ROI 101.8%

*The total figure, is based on getting the best generally available price at the time I issue the tip (with the stated bookmakers – including BOG, if offered).

I would hope this would be considered a ‘fair’ representation of what is achievable (with suitable commitment – and plenty of bookmaker accounts !)

So, for the second month in succession, I’ve managed to achieve an ROI of over 100%.

You’ll be expecting it every month, if I’m not careful

Unlike December however, Januarys performance came as a bit of a shock.

Those of you who have been with me for the past few season, will know that historically, I’ve tended to struggle in January and February – so any kind of profit would probably have been gratefully accepted !

However, I think there is good reason for the improved performance this season – a slightly different strategy for the month…

Last season (and the season before), I got bogged down during the deep winter period, trying to find winners (almost regardless of price).

The reality is, that when the ground is riding heavy, the Form Book just isn’t as valuable.

You get far more inexplicable results (the West Wales National on Saturday showed why).

I therefore decided this season, to ‘embrace the uncertainty’ and tip more speculative horses at bigger prices – and so far during this period, that strategy has worked.
Clearly when you are tipping at big odds, you need a bit of luck – but if you make enough sound selections, there’s a good chance you will get a bit of luck - and that is exactly what happened this month.

Anyway, back to the numbers:

The 13.25pts staked during January were spread across 43 horses competing in 35 races.

Again, this is a reduction compared to January, which I think is mainly down to the ever growing difficulty of issuing a tip during the mid week.

Amazingly, for the entire month, a total of just 3 tips were issued across Tuesdays and Wednesdays (that covered 8 days).

Of the 43 tips, in terms of placings, they achieved the following:

1^st – 7

2^nd – 4

3^rd – 6

4^th - 4

I target 25% of the tips finishing first or second – and achieved almost exactly that number. That sounds OK – but is actually much better than that, as the average price I tipped at was greater than 12/1. At those kind of odds, getting first or second 25% of the time, is impressive.

As with last month, the ratio of advised price to BSP was interesting…

If you have just backed all of the tips at the advised price and layed them off on BF at BSP, you would only have made 2.37pts profit (18%).

This suggests the tips shouldn’t have made as big a profit as they did.

The most astonishing of aspect of the month was that, once again, if you had blindly backed all of the tips at BSP, then to a level 1pt stake, you would have made good profit  - this month, 44pts (before commission).

That equates to an ROI of over 100% at BSP, which is amazing !!

Needless to say, my mind is working over-time, trying to decide if this really is the future.

The service is now over 70pts up on the season, at BSP to a level stake. That is an ROI of around 50% - and we are over half way through the season.
I thought last month was a bit of a fluke – but now I’m not so sure…

The one negative for the month was the performance of the Top Picks – or rather the lack of it !

There were only 2 Top Picks issued during the entire month – and they both lost.

The reason why there were so few Top Picks is simply because my focus was on big priced horses (as mentioned above).

I wasn’t really looking for horses that meet the criteria of Top Picks.

So, in summary, another really good month - the challenge will be to keep it going during February.

I intend to maintain the method of high price/high risk tips – and that does need some luck.

We could easily hit a long losing run – so you need to be prepared for that possibility (both mentally and financially).

That said, with this method, just two or three winners will normally, secure a profit for the month – and as is being shown, there shouldn’t be a need to chase prices on many of the selections (because nobody else fancies them !).

If I can successfully navigate through February, then I would plan to revert back to my normal methods from March onwards (as with November and December, it’s historically a month I’ve done well in).
One thing I’ve learnt over the past few years, is that you need different methods to find winners at different points in season.

Hopefully I have struck on one to get us through the trickiest part of the season.

Fingers crossed !

TVB.