Daily write-up - Feb 8th

There are two NH meetings this afternoon, at Exeter and Leopardstown…

And what meetings they are !

A match for yesterday, in terms of quality – and superior in terms of betting opportunities.

There are 4 grade 1 events on the Leopardstown card – the Cheltenham festival itself would have to go some to beat that !
And whilst the Exeter card is more modest, it is still really interesting and varied.

If only every day could be like today !

With potential opportunities in abundance, I’ve taken the plunge and tipped a few horses !

In truth, they are all speculative picks (to a greater or lesser extent) – but I believe that they all have chances of wining that are better than their odds imply, so lets hope one of them (at least !) manages to deliver.

Here’s the rationale – and a few other thoughts…

Leopardstown

2:15

This race certainly wouldn’t look out of place at the Cheltenham festival.

Run over an intermediate trip of 2m2f, it could easily throw up the winner of the Supreme novice or the Neptune Investment novice at the festival - or both !

Favourite for the race is Alvisio Ville. He was a hugely impressive winner of a novice hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas, on his Irish debut.

That form alone doesn’t entitle him to be an 11/8 shot today – it was the style of the victory and the subsequent noises from the Willie Mullins stable that explain his price today.
If he is the real deal, then he will probably win – but he has some serious rivals to overcome this afternoon.

It would be easy enough to make a case for Nicholas Canyon, Identity Thief and Windsor Park – but I’ve opted instead to go for a couple of relative outsiders…

How Silver Concorde is 14/1 for any novice event, is beyond me.

The winner of the Champion bumper at the Cheltenham festival last March, he was admittedly beaten on his hurdling debut at Leopardstown, but I think was forgivable.

The heavy ground wouldn’t have suited him that day – and his hurdling can only improve.

He has already demonstrated that he has the natural ability to win at the highest level – and if things click for him today, he will give them all a race.

It’s a slight concern that jockey bookings suggest he is Dermot Welds second strong today – but as I’ve said before, no matter how good these jockeys are, they can only ever ride one horse !

It’s a similar story with Sempre Medici.

He’s been discarded by Ruby Walsh – but Paul Townend isn’t a bad substitute !

The horse himself has only run twice over hurdles: recording a facile victory at Cork – and then running Jollyallan close at Kempton.
That is decent form as it stands – but it could well have looked even better if Sempre Medici hadn’t ploughed through the final hurdle.

Whatever the outcome, this is very much a race to savour.
That said, I think we are on a couple at big prices, with very real chances – let’s hope one of them manages to come home in front.

0.25pt win Silver Concorde 14/1

0.25pt win Sempre Medici 16/1

2:45

Based purely on the form book, Valseur Lido is going to take all the beating in this…

A really impressive winner of the grade 1 Drinmore chase at Punchestown, back in November, he had Apache Stronghold 8 lengths behind that day and that one subsequently came out and ran RSA favourite Don Polli, to 3 lengths at Leopardstown over Christmas.

As novice form goes, that’s as good as it gets…

The Tullow Tank finished well beaten in both of those races, so strictly on the book, has little chance today.

However, he was sent off 7/4 favourite for the Drinmore and would not have been suited by 3 miles on heavy ground, in the Leopardstown race.

He was an exceptional novice hurdler last season – and I think it is worth giving him one more chance today, to prove he retains that ability.
Certainly, there should be no excuse for him in terms of trip or ground – and his stable is also in much better form now than it was earlier in the season.

It’s interesting to note that he is tried in cheek pieces for the first time today – presumably in an attempt to liven him up a bit.

With an exposed handicapper, I would see that as a positive move – though I’m not quite so sure with a potential grade 1 chaser.
That said, their application bucked up Silviniaco Conti – so lets hope it’s the same effect on The Tullow Tank !

0.25pt win The Tullow Tank 20/1

3:50

I tipped Home Farm last time out, when he was a first fence faller in the Lexus chase, run at Leopardstown, over Christmas.

Todays race, is almost a re-run of that particular contest (with the winner taken out !), so it was always going to be difficult for me not to tip him again today…

No less that 6 of todays field contested the Lexus on their previous run, with On his Own coming out best of them.
On todays better ground, it’s impossible to be adamant over who will come out on top – but I very much doubt they will come home in the same order as last time !

My rationale for tipping Home Farm last time, was that he was unexposed and had the potential to improve a few pounds for a new stable (he is currently a few pounds shy of the level normally required to win a Grade 1).

That remains the logic for tipping him today – I feel the form of the Lexus isn’t overly strong, particularly with the race winner out of the equation.
That said, there is a potential fly in the ointment in the shape of Foxrock.

He has put in a couple of big recent performances in valuable handicaps and should relish stepping back up to 3 miles today.

I could easily see him being involved at the finish – but I’m not sure there is much between him and Home Farm.

The bottom line is that it’s a very open race – and Home Farm is worth a small play at a big price.

0.25pt win Home Farm 20/1

The other grade one on the card, is the opening Spring Juvenile hurdle…

This appears to give Kalkir the opportunity to get his career back on course, following a surprising defeat last time out.

I expected him to be a very short priced favourite, so the fact he is being strongly opposed in the betting by Vercingetorix is possibly significant.

That said, I would probably be inclined to take them both on with Petite Parisienne.
She was beaten on her Irish debut – but was given a lot to do that day and showed significant ability to get close to the winner.

She should improve for that run – and the 7lb mares allowance could prove crucial this afternoon.

Exeter

2:25

I was waiting most of the morning for Alaivan to go to 20/1 (his price on BF) – and it eventually happened !

Potentially, 16/1 was a fair enough price – I would just have like a bit bigger about a horse who is pretty risky…

The risks come from the fact that Alaivan hasn’t run over 3 miles previously – and he’s not run at all for over 300 days.

On the flip side, he’s potentially well handicapped (based on his old Irish form) – has run well fresh in the past – and there’s the chance that he might improve for the step up in trip.

Certainly, his form at the back end of last season, was solid class 1 (so he is effectively dropping in grade today). And whilst he didn’t seem to have much in hand of his mark – the way he finished his races suggested that a step up to 3 miles might trigger some improvement. 

Furthermore, I think his case is enhanced by his connections.
He is trained by Jonjo O’Neill, who, as I mentioned yesterday, has really started to find some form: whilst his jockey is Maurice Linehan. He only claims 3lb nowadays – but I still think that is a gift.

There are plenty of potential dangers in the race, but I think the market has found most of them.

The two I would be most fearful of are Knight of Noir and Regal Encore.

However the former has little in hand of his mark: whilst the latter needs to prove he can actually deliver.

0.25pt win Alaivan 20/1

2:55

I’m a big fan of the veterans races - and this is a particularly decent example.

I guess with a first prize of nearly £20K a strong field was always likely – and that is certainly the case, numerically speaking, at least…

That said, looking through the field, I think a number of the runners can be ruled out on account of the trip (too far) or ground (too quick).

One whom I think both trip and ground will be perfect for, is Kasbadali…

He put up a good performance to win over this course and distance, just over 12 months ago – and must have a fair chance of repeating today, off a mark only 1lb higher…

He is clearly quite a fragile sort, as he’s not seen very often - in fact, he has only run twice since that course win.

The first of those runs was a creditable second to Chartreux at Sandown last March; whilst the second was when a disappointing favourite on his seasonal reappearance at Sandown in December.

He ran no sort of a race that day – but the soft ground wouldn’t have suited him.

Backed down to11/4 favourite, it is clear that connections expected better from him.

Hopefully that will be the case today, because recent form aside, he ticks pretty much every box…

In terms of dangers, then Soll is the one I fear most.
He makes his debut for David Pipe today and is potentially handicapped to just about win.

That said, I’m sure he would prefer softer ground than he will get - and he his is held by Kasbadali on the Sandown run.

I will probably save my stake on him – but at the odds, I had to make Kasbadali the tip.

0.25pt win Kasbadali 12/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB

Tips

 

Early

 

Leopardstown 2:15 Silver Concorde 0.25pt win 14/1

Leopardstown 2:15 Sempre Medici 0.25pt win 16/1

Leopardstown 2:45 The Tullow Tank 0.25pt win 20/1

Leopardstown 2:15 Home Farm 0.25pt win 20/1

Exeter 2:55 Kasbadali 0.25pt win 12/1

 

Late

 

Exeter 2:25 Alaivan 0.25pt win 20/1

 

Mentions

 

Leopardstown 1:15 Petite Parisienne (O )

 

Top Picks

 

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