Daily write-up - Feb 1st

There are 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Musselburgh in Scotland and Punchestown in Ireland.

It’s Cheltenham trials day at Musselburgh – though I very much doubt the events there will have much of an impact on the markets for the March Festival.

That said, it is decent enough racing for a Sunday.

The same is true at Punchestown, where the high light of the card is the grade 2 Tied Cottage chase, at 3:40.

I don’t have a tip in that – but I do have couple of tips in a later race on the card. I also have two at Musselburgh.

Here’s the rationale and a few other thoughts…

Musselburgh

1:30

The can be little doubt that today is the day for Ifandbutwhynot…

3 runs over fences have seen him get a handicap mark 1lb lower than his last winning mark over hurdles.

He’s won well at Musselburgh in the past: and the booking of AP, looks significant.

He has to take the beating – provided he’s as good over fences as he was over hurdles.

And there has to be a question mark over that: as there also has to be a question mark regarding his effectiveness over the minimum trip on quick ground.

In short, despite him having ticks in lots of boxes, there are doubts as well and 9/4 makes limited appeal.

The one I’m hoping that can take advantage if he does under perform, is Swaledale Lad…

His form last spring, when he beat both Able Deputy and Runswick Royal, make him look well handicapped today.

He has only run twice this season – both times in graded events over hurdles. That is quite interesting in its own right.

A fifth place in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle on his seasonal debut was followed up by a fourth place behind The New One in the Champion hurdle trial at Haydock.

He never stood any chance of winning either of those contests, but they will have served a purpose in getting him fit, whilst not impacting his handicap mark over fences.

I think he will be ready to rumble today…

Swaledale Lad is a very free going sort, so I fully expect him to either lead or be close to the pace.

Both Kie and Ultimate can also lead (though the latter probably needs further nowadays), so there is likely to be a good pace on regardless.

I think that will test the jumping of Ifandbuthynot – today we will find out how good he is.
As I said at the beginning, if he’s as good over fences as he is over hurdles, I think he’ll win. However there are reason for thinking that might not be the case and if it isn’t, I’m optimistic that Swaledale Lad will be able to take advantage.

0.5pt win Swaledale Lad 7/1

4:30

The Pertemps qualifier that closes the card, looks a fiercely competitive race.

No doubt the betting public will be drawn to impressive last time out winners, Dawalan and Fly Vinnie – or the potentially well handicapped Bothy.

Victory for any of the 3 would come as no surprise – whilst Edeymi and Run Ructions Run, also look interesting contenders.

All this said, it should be borne in mind that the main purpose of this race, is to qualify for the final of the series at Cheltenham.

A win today, could easily blow a horses chance of collecting in the final (as its handicap mark will go up)  – so you need to tread carefully in these kind of races.
One that won’t care if it wins, because it has no pretensions to winning the final, is Arctic Court.

He won a race similar to this (though not quite as competitive) back in November of last season.

That was off a mark of 121 – yet amazingly, he can get to run off a mark 2lb lower today – and that is despite being 4lb out of the handicap.

He is competing of a lower mark because of a few poor runs – but I think there are good reasons for most of them.

Arctic Court is a horse that much prefers good, quick ground – and he’s only encountered such a surface once since his last win.

That was over 3m3f at Keslo and I think he might not have got home that day.

Back over his ideal trip, on perfect ground, off an attractive mark – and with a debut run under his belt, he ticks just about every box !
On the flip side, he is now 11 years old – and this does look a strong race (every 25/1 shot has its downsides !).

I’ve opted to go win only – even after yesterday – but as I’ve said before, that’s my style.

I think he should run a big race, so EW wouldn’t be a bad shout if you prefer that route.

0.25pt win Arctic Court 28/1

The Scottish Champion hurdle at 3:00 is another very competitive race.
That said, a couple of the horses I was interested in have been declared NRs, which should make it slightly easier to solve.

The one I was most tempted by is Streets of Newyork.
However, there are at least half a dozen others I could give chance to, so I can resist a best price of 6/1…

Punchestown

4:10

Looking at this race, I was quite happy to oppose the 3 market leaders (Embracing Chance, Portrait King and Sword Fish) – plus the 2 outsiders (Behemoth and Like your Style).

It’s not that I think the market leaders can’t win – just that they are all relatively exposed (so you know where you stand with them) and there was no juice in any of their prices.

That left me with a short list of 4: More Madness, Jupitor, Too Late to Sell and Raz de Maree.

Getting that down to 2 was a bit trickier - but bearing in mind the odds, I felt it was an exercise worth undertaking.

It was hard to ditch More Madness. I mentioned him last Sunday and he ran well. I don’t think todays race is as tough as last weeks so I would expect him to run well again today.
Furthermore, the booking of Ger Fox is a positive for him – however, I’m not convinced that a step up to 3m4f is.
He’s a free going sort and I just worry about his ability to get home.
If he does, he will go very close – but I suspect he might not.
Stamina isn’t an issue with Raz De Maree – it’s more a question of what kind of form he is in – and whether he is well enough handicapped.

My feeling is that he might need a few more pounds off his rating before he is really competitive (plus possibly another run).
That left me with Jupitor and Too Late to Sell.

Based on his last two runs, you wouldn’t want Jupitor – but based on his first run of the season – and his form at the back end of last season, he is very attractive.

A win at the Punchestown festival in May off a mark just 3lb lower than today, makes him the one to beat - particularly with David Mullins claiming 7lb from the saddle.

Too Late to Sell strikes me more as a ‘plot’ horse (ie, he has been lined up for today).

His best runs have been at Punchestown - and he was a big eye catcher at the course on his seasonal debut 3 weeks ago.

On that run, he is held by Portrait King – but he looked sure to finish in front of that one turning in, before lack of fitness caught him out.
With that run under his belt today, I would expect him to turn round the form.

In summary, I’m hopeful we’ve got all options covered.
If things go to form, Jupitor should win: but if there’s an improver in the race, I’m hopeful it is Too Late to Sell.

0.25pt win Jupitor 10/1

0.25pt win Too Late to Sell 10/1

In the Tied Cottage chased at 3:40, I think Bright New Dawn might represents a bit of value to turn over the 2 markets leaders.

That said, he probably doesn’t represent as much value as he would have done, if Pricewise hadn’t tipped him !

He was behind Twinlight at Leopardstown over Christmas, but I think he has a chance of reversing the form on this very different track.

In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Hidden Cyclone turned out to be his biggest danger.

Finally, there is another Pertemps qualifier at 3:10 – and this one looks only marginally less tricky that the one run at Musselburgh !

That said, favourite Mydor needs to win to give himself any chance of qualifying for the final – so there should be no hidden agenda there.

I don’t see it is a formality for him though  - and whilst Lite Duties is the obvious one to take him on with, I think that Wrath of Titans, Thekingofconnemara and Grand Partner, all have chances of being involved at the finish.

If forced to nail my colours to the mast, I would go with the last named – each way.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Musselburgh 1:30 Swaledale Lad 0.5pt win 7/1

Punchestown 4:10 Jupitor 0.25pt win 10/1

Punchestown 4:10 Too Late to Sell 0.25pt win 10/1

 

Late

 

Musselburgh 4:30 Arctic Court 0.25pt win 28/1

 

Mentions

 

Musselburgh 3:00 Streets of Newyork (O )

Punchestown 3:10 Grand Partner (O )

Punchestown 3:40 Bright New Dawn (O )

 

Top Picks

 

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