Daily write-up - Feb 23rd

There are two NH meetings this afternoon: at Plumpton and Ayr.

At 8:00 this morning, I was looking at a couple of tips on the day – but as things have turned out, neither one has materialised.

C’est La Vie, as our French cousins would say…

In truth, it was going to be a slightly strange situation, as both tips would have been in the same 5 horse race !

I hadn’t seen a particularly clever angle – I just felt that both represented a bit of value, in a very winnable looking contest.

The horses I had in mind, were Nozic (who I did tip) – and Alder Mairi (who I didn’t).

Nozic was really a saver for Alder Mairi, so I wasn’t too bothered when he was declared a NR, moments after I issued the tip.

At that time, Alder Mairi was a 5/1 shot, so with Nozic 10/1, I expected to still be able to tip Alder Mairi at around 9/2.

I thought that would be fair enough – she’s hardly bomb proof – but she is quite capable of winning todays race, if she puts her best foot forward.

However, 9/2 never materialised – and at 10:30, it would have been a struggle to beat 10/3.

That’s too short.

Ofcourse that doesn’t mean she won’t win – far from it.

However, she is a risky selection (as she may not run her race) – and, at that kind of price, I prefer selections to be more solid…

If she does run her race, then the only one I would fear, would be Nomadic Storm – but I’m just not prepared to take a risk on her at 10/3…

There is little else of interest on the Plumpton card – and it’s not much different at Ayr.

The only race I considered there, was the closing event on the card.

No Deal should be the one to beat – though I wouldn’t want to see him too weak in the betting (and he is currently on the drift).
If I were to take a risk on the race, it would be on Great Link.

He ran well 3 runs ago – and had a valid reason for a poor penultimate run.
However, it is more difficult to excuse his last time out effort, as he was struggling before he unseated.

If he can bounce back to form today, I think he can go close.

But that’s far from guaranteed – and the heavy ground doesn’t help matters.

On balance, I’m happy to just make him a mention

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.