Daily write-up - Feb 14th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton in the UK – plus Gowran Park in Ireland.

I had quite high expectations for todays racing – but when I looked at the cards yesterday afternoon, I quickly realised that it was going to be a struggle to find much…

The main issue is typified by Ascot, where there are just 42 runners declared to compete in 7 races – and 10 of those run in the bumper that closes the card.

Competitive racing it is not…

Consequently, finding an edge is difficult – and betting without an edge tends to result in a long term loss…

Obviously there are 3 other meetings where I could (and did !) search for tips – but it’s a similar story at those.

Generally small fields – and when that’s not the case (as in a couple of the Haydock races), the fields become so big, it’s difficult to find a tip for other reasons…

All this said, I’ve somehow managed to find 4 tips for the day - and whilst they are all speculative, I do believe that they all have a decent edge at early prices.

Let’s hope that at least one of them can convert that edge into a profit.

Here’s the rationale – and my other thoughts…

Ascot

3:50

This is a poor quality field for a Grade 1 event, with the top rated horse, Balder Succes having an official mark of just 162…

You would normally expect a race of this calibre to have 170+ rated horses in the line-up but not today.

Consequently, it is not too surprising to see the novice Ptit Zig, installed as favourite - though I wonder how munch of that is down to last weekends victory of Coneygree (also a novice, who beat experienced rivals in the Denman chase).

Whatever, it certainly wouldn’t surprise to me see an upset in this race - particularly with the overnight rain causing uncertainty with the ground.

In fact, without the overnight rain, we’d be on a different horse.

In those circumstances I would have taken a chance on the first time hood settling Rajdhani Express.

However, he has a marked preference for quicker ground – so the rain has resulted in me switching allegiance.

Instead, I’ve opted for the outsider of the field, Theatre Guide.

He is the lowest rated runner in the field, with a mark of just 149 – but that is less than a stone off Balder Succes and I think he might be able to bridge that gap.

Certainly, he is a horse who still seems to be improving.

First time out this season, he dead heated with Fox Appeal at Kempton, off level weights – and that one is rated 152.

Furthermore, Theatre Guide apparently needed the run that day, so you could reasonably expect improvement from that.

His next run was supposed to be in the Hennessy, but he sustained an injury which resulted in him missing that race.

Instead, he ran in the Cotswold chase at Cheltenham on trials day and ran really well, whilst giving the impression that he didn’t quite stay the 3mile+ trip that day.

The drop back in trip today will help on that score – though in truth I would prefer him to be going over a little bit further.

My slight concern today is that Ruby Walsh will dictate matters on Ballycasey and effectively ride the others to sleep.

Hopefully that won’t happen – there are some top class jockeys in opposition and I’ll be disappointed if they give him too easy a time of things up front.

Certainly, a lot will depend on how the race pans out (which is often the case with small fields), but I can see a scenario where Aidan Coleman sits out the back and lets the others battle away from 3 fences out, before pouncing late.
Let’s hope my vision isn’t just a mirage !!

0.25pt win Theatre Guide 33/1

In the handicap chase at 2:40, I am very sweet on the chances on Carole’s Destrier…

He ran a huge race last time out at Cheltenham  - and the booking of Barry Geraghty today, looks significant.

It’s one of those races where you can make a case for most of the runners, if you try – but he is the one that stands out.
I would have tipped him at 3/1 – but feel uncomfortable doing so at his current 2/1.

Instead I’m going to make him a Top Pick (we’ve not had one of those for a while !) – and hope he drifts a little close to the off…

In the following handicap hurdle, I quite like the chance of Diamond King.

However, this race is quite literally a pin job and victory for any of the 7 runners would come as no great surprise.

I guess it’s possible to argue that Diamond King therefore represents a bit of value at 7/1 – but if he does, it’s only a bit…

Finally, I got close to taking chance on Thistlerock in the novice hurdle at 4:20.

I half fancied him last time out at Cheltenham (in Ordo ab Chao’s race), but he was amateur ridden that day, which put me off.

I’ve re-watched that race a few times and I can’t decide what to make of his run.
He seemed to be going fine at the top of the hill – but is well beaten by the bottom of it.
Maybe it was the distance (that race was over half a mile further than today), I can’t decide.

Whatever, I do like the fact that Ruby Walsh is in the saddle today – that strikes me as a statement of intent.

His price of 7/1 didn’t seem too bad either – but there is a lot of guesswork with regard to his opponents (and him !).

I wouldn’t put anyone off him – but he just seemed a but too speculative to be tipping…

Haydock

2:55

I was going to give this race a miss, as it looks very open – but the drift in the price of Mountainous has sucked me in..!
In fairness, it’s not difficult to make a case for the horse.
He is running today of the same mark that he was successful from in last seasons Welsh National.

He will be well suited by both todays trip and ground – and is jockey Jamie Moores only ride of the day.

He has ticks in plenty of boxes, that’s for sure..

The one key box that he doesn’t have a tick in, is recent form.
His last run was in this seasons Welsh National and he was a bitter disappointment in that race.

However, I’m always prepared to forgive a horse one bad run – particularly in a race such as that.

Certainly I felt that Mountainous had run well enough on his previous outing this season.

That was also at Chepstow and whilst he ultimately finished well beaten, he ran well until lack of condition caught him out close home.

That run suggested he retained his ability – and if that is the case, then he is overpriced to win today.

In terms of dangers, then no result would surprise me – though I would be particularly wary of bottom weight, Harry the Viking, who has been gradually running himself back into form this season.

0.25pt win Mountainous 20/1

In the Rendelsham hurdle at 2:20, At Fishers Cross should outclass his field – but anyone prepared to take 5/4 on him doing so, is a braver man than me !

Barafundle, Closing Ceremony and Milansbar will put pace to the race, which could test his jumping; whilst Land of Vic is likely to be running on at the death, if he starts falter close home.

That said, the most interesting runner in the field is Seeyouatmidnight.

I felt he had ‘future Gold Cup’ winner written all over him last season, so it will be fascinating to see how he gets on today.

I think you can get a pin out to the Pertemps qualifier at 3:25 (or alternatively, keep a very close eye on the betting).

My 3 against the filed are Run Ructions Run, Kelvingrove and our old friend, Invicta Lake.
The last named should be well suited by the pace that Bygones Sovereign will doubtless put to the race – and I’ll be a bit surprised if Bygones manages to steal todays race as he did last time at Newbury.

In the novice hurdle at 4:00, I could have been interested in Ballagh at a price.

However, that price would have been  a fair bit bigger than 11/4.

Finally, I think Algernon Pazham will take the beating the novice handicap chase at 4:30 – but so does the market.

He was hugely impressive last time out at Leicester and I doubt today’s step back in trip will cause him any issue.

That said, he does face some potentially interesting rivals today – so he’s not one I would be chasing at any price.

Wincanton

1:55

This is another race where I have been sucked in by a price drift on a horse that I feel has a fair chance.

The horse in question is Key to the West, and whilst I wouldn’t make him favourite for todays race, I do feel that a quote of 16/1 is too dismissive.

I guess it is primarily as a result of his last time out run, when he was pulled up.

However, that was in a hot race at Ffos Las, which was run on very heavy ground.

Heavy ground at Ffos Las is like heavy ground nowhere else (quite literally, due to the composition of the soil) and plenty of horses simply can’t handle it.
I think that a line can be safely put through that run.

On his previous outing he was narrowly beaten in a very tight finish at Kempton.

That run entitles him to be a much shorter price today – by the betting public have restricted memories.

It is interesting to note that the horse who finished just a head in front of him at Kempton, Cold March, runs in a later race on the Wincanton card.

Both horses run off the same marks today as they did at Kempton – yet Key to the West is a 16/1 chance today: whilst Cold March has been installed 3/1 favourite for his race.

I find that quite interesting…!

I also find it quite interesting that key to the West will be wearing a tongue tie for the first time today…

In terms of opponents, then it’s another race where I wouldn’t rule out many !

I felt Winston Churchill was too short a price - but he has now drifted: similarly, I wouldn’t rush to back Opening Batsman at 4/1.

Toowoomba is the most likely winner - but the handicapper isn’t missing him and he has more of a job on than he did last time.

Whilst Upepito and Harrys Farewell have both been tips earlier this season – and we know how dangerous it is to ignore such horses on subsequent runs !

All this said the bet on Key to the West is about value.

I think he has a chance in todays race – and I think a price of 16/1 underestimates that chance.

0.25pt win Key to the West 16/1

I do think that Cold March will take the beating in the handicap chase at 3:05 – but mainly because I have issues with just about all of his rivals…

It’s a race where there is likely to be a ferocious pace – so if he’s out the back early, that might be the time to get involved.

Certainly, he won’t want for stamina up the home straight, so if he’s in with a shout turning for home, the others had better watch out !!

Gowran Park

2:45

I’ve not done as well in Ireland this season as I have done in previous seasons, but I’m hopeful that Snooze can improve things a bit today…

I was quite keen on him the last time he ran, which was a hot race at Punchestown, early in December.

Snooze travelled very nicely in that race, to the home turn, but then cut out as if something was amiss.

I’ve no idea whether that was the case, but the fact that he’s not been seen on the track for over 2 months, suggests he may have had a problem.

Snooze is actually a horse that I’ve followed for a number of years – since he was trained in France by Sue Bramhall.

I’m pretty sure that he has the basic ability to win a race such as todays off his current mark (117).

I also very much like the booking of Andrew Ring today.

John Cullen tends to ride most of his own horses, so I the fact he’s booked a 7lb claimer today, strikes me as quite significant.

I certainly expect the horse to race prominently – and I’ll be very disappointed if it doesn’t run a huge race.
I am conscious that it’s running style will make it vulnerable at the end of the race – which his why I’ve opted for each way.
That said, I hope he’s so far clear jumping the last, that the insurance part of the bet isn’t required !

0.25pt EW Snooze 16/1

It’s make or break day for Champagne Fever in the Red Mills chase at 2:10.

Nothing less than a victory will do – and I suspect that without one, he wont be going to Cheltenham.

Provided his jumping holds up, I would expect him to come home in front – tho he does face some fair rivals, so it won’t be a formality…

Finally, Thunder Zone looks quite interesting in the days other feature, the Red Mills hurdle…

Maybe he is just in the race to provide some pace for Tiger Roll – but in receipt on a stone plus from all his rivals, I don’t think they will want to be giving him too much rope.

Quite possibly a back to lay in-running possibility, for those of you who like that kind of thing.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Ascot 3:50 Theatre Guide 0.25pt win 33/1

Gowran Park 2:45 Snooze 0.25pt EW 16/1

 

Late

 

Haydock 2:55 Mountainous 0.25pt win 20/1

Wincanton 1:55 Key to the West 0.25pt win 16/1

 

Mentions

 

Ascot 3:15 Diamond King (O )

Ascot 4:20 Thistlecrack (S )

Haydock 3:25 Invicta Lake (O )

Haydock 4:00 Ballagh (P )

Haydock 4:30 Algernon Pazham (P )

Wincanton 3:05 Cold March (P )

Gowran Park 3:20 Thunder Zone (S )

 

Top Picks

 

Ascot 2:40 Carole’s Destrier