Daily write-up - Feb 7th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: Newbury, Warwick and Uttoxeter in the UK -  plus Naas in Ireland.

First thing first: it was nice to hear that at least a couple of you took a risk and backed Sustainability EW, yesterday…

I know I go on about how TVB is more than just a tipping service – and I’m sure you all get tired of hearing it (!) – but horses like Sustainability help illustrate my point…

I was never going to tip a 50/1 shot in a hunter chase (nor I should imagine, would any other tipster !) – but that didn’t mean I didn’t think it was a fair bet.

It was a similar situation with Beast of Burden.
I backed it prior to yesterdays race, at 60 on BF for the Albert Bartlett hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.

I layed off the bet at 25 after the race.
I’ve now effectively got a ‘free bet’ at 35 on the horse for the race.

I’m sure you can all see how difficult it is to prescription tip, nowadays.

I tip a horse – even at Cheltenham (as has happened twice this week) - and the price is cut in seconds.

If you want to make this game pay, it makes sense to try and interpret what I’ve written and use your judgement to place a few bets.

Anyway, well done to those who did just that yesterday - you got your just reward !!

On to today…

And for a Saturday, it’s a little disappointing – certainly from a potential betting perspective.

I guess that is likely to happen more and more over the next few weeks in the run up to Cheltenham.

I’ve found us 3 tips – but I’ve also missed at least one other !

Here’s my rationale for the tips – and my other thoughts on the day.

Newbury

1:50

Araldur caught my eye last time out in a similar race to today, at Haydock.
He travelled through that contest with real menace, but didn’t get home on very heavy ground.

In truth, a few sloppy jumps didn’t help him either - but my feeling was that he could have gone very close, if things had dropped right for him.

That statement is backed up to an extent, by his previous run.
That was also at Haydock and he finished a 4 length runner up to Closing Ceremony.

He meets that one on 10lb better terms today, which should be enough to just about reverse the form.
Yet Closing Ceremony is an 8/1 shot, with Araldur available at nearly 3 times that price.

Part of the reason for that is because Araldur, as an 11 year old, doesn’t possess much scope for improvement.

And it is a real possibility that he won’t be quite good enough to win today.

There are certainly some interesting horses in opposition; most notably the Jonjo O’Neill trained Milan Bound.

However, as always, it’s all about odds and value.
Milan Bound is a 3/1 shot – we are getting almost twice that price about Araldur finishing in the first 3.

I think that’s a good bet. I can see no reason why he won’t run well this afternoon – and if he can improvement his jumping a little, I would be very optimistic that he can finish in the frame, at least…

0.25pt EW Araldur 22/1

2:25

I like this race because it is possible to systematically work your way through it – with hopefully the winner dropping out !

First up, I don’t think that todays ground will be soft enough for last seasons winner, Harry Topper.

He’s become a disappointing horse – with endless excuses – and I can see him getting well behind today.

Next to go is Double Ross. I tipped him on his penultimate run in the Betfair chase – but he disappointed that day and he has subsequently disappointed in the King George.

I could see him running OK today – but I don’t think he’s going to be quite up to winning.
I would make similar comments about Coneygree.

I have no doubt hat he will give a bold sight upfront for a lot of the contest – but entering the home straight, I envisage things starting to get a bit desperate for him and suspect 2 or 3 of his rivals will go by.

Which leaves us with 3…

The issue with Houblon Des Obeaux is his lack of tactical pace. He is likely to lose touch when the pace of the race quickens.

The presence of Coneygree will help his cause (as he will ensure a good pace throughout) but I just suspect that Houblon will leave himself to much to do.

I could see him finishing fast and late – but suspect the race might be over by then.

I have no issue with Unioniste – the question in my mind is simply whether he is good enough to give 5lb to Taquin Du Seuil.

That will very much depend on which Taquin Du Seuil turns up – but if it’s the one I hope, then I don’t think he can.

Which brings us on to the case for the selection: Taquin Du Seuil.

A top class novice last season, he has been disappointing this season – however, I put that down to the form of the Jonjo O’Neill yard.
It is very much a stable that blows hot and cold – and for the first 4 months of the season, it has blown very cold.

That seems to be changing now however. 4 winners and 3 seconds from the 10 horses he has run this week, suggests that the stable has very much found its form.

If that is the case, then I would expect Taquin to be able to show his true ability – and if he does that I think he will take the world of beating today, in receipt of weight from most of his rivals.

Lets not forget that on his last start in the grade 1 Betfair chase, he was sent off a 9/2 shot against the likes of Silviniaco Conti, Cue Card, Menorah and Dynaste.

We are getting the same price today, with him taking on rivals a rung below those mentioned – and in receipt of weight.

Looked at in those terms he simply has to be a good bet !

0.5pt win Taquin Du Seuil 9/2

I have to be honest, I’ve missed a trick (or two !) with the Betfair hurdle…

When the race was first priced up, I toyed with putting up Calipto on the ante-post blog at 16/1. I left it for a week and couldn’t believe he was a 7/1 shot when I next looked !

On further examination of the race, I thought On Tour looked a potentially good bet at 20/1.

However, I wasn’t sure he would run – and also whether today trip might be on the sharp side for him.

I toyed with tipping him yesterday morning at 16/1 – but decided against it.
Pricewise put him up yesterday evening at 14/1 – and now you can’t beat 10/1.

In the circumstances, I figured it best to just leave the race alone and cheer on the other 22 runners !

In the opening race on the card, I considered tipping Royal Vacation.

It’s not my style to tip in novice hurdles, but I thought he looked interesting, at a price (14/1).

However, the Paul Nicholls trained Bouvreuil sets a fair standard – and there are 3 or 4 other interesting types in the race (particularly Risk a Fine), so I decided to just make him a mention instead.

Finally, it will be fascinating to see if Sire De Grugy can make a successful comeback from injury in the  Game Spirit chase.

He is likely to be fully tested by the JP pair Mr Mole and Uxizandre – plus I could see Upsilon Bleu outrunning his odds.

It’s not a race you could bet in because of all the uncertainty, but Uxizandre at 5/1 looks a fair bet to me…

Uttoxeter

3:25

This looks quite a weak race, with the first and second favourite opposable at the odds on offer.

Favourite, Jupiter Rex, won a weak race at Bangor just before Christmas which has resulted in him getting a 7lb rise in the handicap.

That looks harsh to me – and I suspect he is being priced up today on the fact that he reeled off a 7 timer last season (impressive granted, but not really relevant to today).

Ray Diamond is a dual course winner – but again was handed a big weight rise (9lb) for his last time out win.

I suspect he will also have issues with today trip of 3 miles in very heavy ground.

However, whilst it is easy enough to raise questions over the 2 principals, the rest of the field hardly look world beaters – though I do believe a decent case can be made for Amroth Bay, provided you ignore his last run…

That was in the Sussex National and despite being sent off a 6/1 shot, Amroth Bay was very disappointing.
In fairness, that was a better quality race than todays, but I can still see no obvious reason for the poor run, which is a little concerning.
That said, if you are prepared to ignore it, then his case is quite compelling.

He has won his two other starts for Dan Skelton, the second of those being the Cambridgeshire national, where he did very well to get the better of Soudain, with the remainder of the field, miles behind.

A 5lb rise in the weights for that win looks perfectly fair and if he can return to that level of form today, I think he will take the world of beating.

0.5pt win Amroth Bay 6/1

In the handicap hurdle at 2:15, I could have been quite tempted by Allez Vic, at a price…

He caught my eye on his penultimate run over fences – before disappointing badly next time out, when his jumping went to pieces.

I’m not surprise to see him over hurdles today – and he is handicapped to run well.

The trouble is, a best price of 4/1 leaves little margin for error.

Finally, in the handicap chase at 4:00, I considered both Last Shot and Quick Decisson.

The former is well handicapped - though I’m not completely sure about the track/ground.

Jumping is the biggest concern with the latter – though he is potentially well handicapped, if he does get round OK.

I might have been persuaded to take a chance on either one, at a price – but 5/1 best on them both, isn’t going to tempt me in…

Warwick

The best race on the Warwick card in the Kingmaker novice chase at 2:05…

This looks to be between Vibrato Voltat and Top Gamble, with the winner likely to be promoted up the betting for the Arkle (though highly unlikely to trouble Un De Sceuxs position at the head of the market).

It’s very easy to predict how the race will unfold: Top Gamble will lead and Vibrato Voltat will stalk.

Who comes out on top, will depend to a large extent on the jumping.

If Vibrato Voltat is within striking distance jumping the second last, I think his turn of foot will be decisive – but if Top Gamble has managed to get a break on him by that point, he will take some pegging back.

The odds aren’t there to warrant taking a risk – but I think the race is Top Gambles to win, provided Paul Moloney plays things right (and I think he will).

The other race of interest on the Warwick card, is the handicap chase at 3:30.

I fully expected to be putting us on Ackertac again today, after his honourable last time out run for us at Ascot.

And I would give him every chance – but it looks a very trappy contest.

I’m also not convinced that Warwicks sharp track and soft ground are what he needs – so, somewhat reluctantly, I’ve decide to pass on him.

One that I do think will be suited by todays test, is Al Alfa – particularly if he can get an uncontested lead.

10/1 on him with Ladbrokes, looks generous…

Naas

I did consider tipping Is Herself About, each way, in the novice chase at 1:55…

Certainly, I think she will run much better than her 40/1 odds imply – though in truth, that could still see her finishing a distant third, behind the 2 markets leaders…

That said, it is a novice chase, so anything is possible !

I’ll probably back her pre-race and then look to lay off in running, as she tends to race prominently and travel enthusiastically…

We were on Way up in the Air, when she ran at Leopardstown over Christmas.

She was very disappointing that day, but was given a strange ride (leading, when she is normally held up).

I couldn’t tip her again today on the back of that run – but suffice to say, if normal tactics are re-adopted, I would expect her to go close.
That said, Strongpoint has the potential to be a huge fly in the ointment, running over fences from a mark more than 20lb below the one he’s been competitive off over hurdles.

If he jumps round cleanly, he will take a lot of beating.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Early

Newbury 1:50 Araldur 0.25pt EW 22/1

Newbury 2:25 Taquin Du Seuil 0.5pt win 9/2

Uttoxeter 3:25 Amroth Bay 0.5pt win 6/1

Late

None

Mentions

Newbury 1:15 Royal Vacation (S )

Newbury 3:00 Uxizandre (O )

Newbury 3:35 On Tour (C )

Uttoxeter 2:15 Allez Vic (P )

Uttoxeter 4:00 Quick Decisson (C )

Warwick 2:05 Top Gamble (P )

Warwick 3:50 Al Alfa (O )

Naas 1:55 Is Herself About (O )

Naas 3:05 Way up in the Air (O )

Top Picks

None