Daily write-up - Feb 26th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Ludlow and Taunton in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland.

Once again, there is nothing to get too excited about – with maybe the exception of the big race at Ludlow and a couple of decent contests at Thurles.

Certainly the meeting at Taunton, which will be run on desperate ground, contains little of interest.

I did find a tip at Ludlow – and was very close to a second at Thurles, so there is at least a bit of activity on the day.

Here is the rationale behind the tip – and a few other thoughts…

Ludlow

3:20

What a Good Night looks the one to beat in this particular contest – but he’s been priced up accordingly.

A dual winner before Christmas, he would be 3 from 3 for his new stable, if he’d not fallen when clear at Southwell.

He is now 33lb higher in the handicap than when he won first time out. However, he still gets to run off a mark of just 116, which makes him the one to beat.

He’s not the only improving sort in the race either: Tony Star and It’s a Steal have progressive profiles – and whilst both are going up the handicap as a result, it’s impossible to be adamant that they are not a capable of defying their current marks.

The presence of those 3 horses makes this a tough race to assess, however, I’m hopeful that I’ve found one that has a decent chance, at a price…

The horse in question is Whats Happening, an ex Irish trained gelding who joined the yard of Tom George, at the beginning of last season.

I suspect that he needed his first season in the UK to fully acclimatise, as whilst he performed reasonably in his races, he didn’t do much better than that.

It was a similar story on his seasonal debut this season, at Bangor – though he did move nicely in that race until lack of peak fitness appeared to catch him out late on.

He followed that run with a much better performance at Sandown, where he looked the most likely winner for much of the race until finding the 3m5f trip on soft ground, a bit too much.

Dropped back 5 furlongs, he was well fancied for a class 2 event, again at Sandown last time out – but didn’t really run a race.

We have to be prepared to forgive that run – but it was run on bad ground and he was also wearing cheek pieces (which have been removed today), so there are possible reasons for him under performing.

The handicapper has taken the form literally and dropped him 3lb, which looks generous, based on his previous run.
I also suspect that todays trip of 3 miles, on soft ground is exactly what he needs.

However, this is not an easy race to unravel…

In addition to the 3 improvers already mentioned, I could also give chances to Alfie Spinner and maybe even Drumshambo (though in his case, you would have to be a forgiving sort !).

That said, it is all about value – and at anything above 8/1, I think Whats Happening is a value call to upset a relatively short-priced market leader.

0.25pt win Whats Happening 10/1

In the novice handicap chase at 2:20, I think Trickaway is the one to beat – but so do the bookmakers.

It also worries me a bit that a first time visor may perk up Key to the West, and if that is the case, Trickaway, won’t get an easy lead.

The other one worthy of consideration is Until Winning.

However, he is second favourite in the market, so it’s not easy to find an angle…

In the final race on the card, I could be interested in Norse Light, but he’s not the kind of horse you can tip…

3 runs in novice races have seen him given an opening handicap mark of 102. As he is rated 78 on the flat, you would have to think that lenient (an equivalent jump mark would be in the 120s).

Cheek pieces are applied today – and a 10lb claimer put on top.

I have little doubt that the stable will know if he is going to run a big race – and if he is, then he will doubtless be backed.

In that case, I will probably follow the money…

Thurles

I would really like to tip Vole Au Vent in the opener on the Thurles card, but it’s not a race that I can tip in…

The best price of 16/1 with B365 is acceptable – as is the 14/1 with WH and L – but I know that only a handful of you would get on before the inevitable price crash – and your accounts would be marked (because of the type of race).

In fairness, she’s not a certainty – but I would expect her to far outrun her odds.

My inclination would have been to put her up EW – even though it’s a novice chase !

Good luck – both with the bet and your account – if you do choose to follow me in !!

In the following race on the card, I would expect Rubi Light to record his first win in 3 years.

We were on him earlier in the season when he ran disappointingly – but he ran much better last time out behind Turban.

Todays heavy ground will suit him much better than it will chief market rival, Arnaud…

Finally, in the handicap hurdle at 4:20, I think Toon River will take a lot of beating off a mark 20lb lower than his chase mark.

He actually won over fences off a 14lb higher mark, last time out – so we know that he’s in good form !

The other one of interest in the race – but from a back to lay in running perspective, is Whatuthink…

He’s used to running much hotter races than today – and will doubtless take the field along for a good part of the race.

He’s probably a bit long in the tooth now, to hang on and win – but I suspect he will trade a fair bit shorter in running than his current 33/1 odds…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Ludlow 3:20 Whats Happening 0.25pt win 10/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Ludlow 2:20 Trickaway (P )

Ludlow 5:00 Norse Light (C )

Thurles 2:15 Vole Au Vent (C )

Thurles 2:45 Rubi Light (P )

Thurles 4:20 Toon River (O )

 

Top Picks

 

None