Daily write-up - Feb 27th

It’s the first day of 2 day meetings at Newbury and Doncaster - and both are reasonable cards.

It was no problem finding a tip (or 3 !) – though a bit trickier issuing them !

Despite me keeping stakes to a minimum, there was still a price crash on Grabtheglory, moments after I’d sent the tip.

Now, in my defence, I don’t think we were solely to blame for that.
Despite appearing solid on oddschecker, the horse was very active on BF – and being trading at below the generally 16/1 on offer.

I’m pretty sure that the 16/1 would have gone regardless of whether I tipped it – me tipping it just speeded things up a bit !

It’s so difficult to know what to do in these situations.

I was faced with a very similar one a fortnight ago, with Ivy Gate.

Personal circumstances mean that I generally have to either tip at 8:30 – or 10:45.

I left Ivy Gate at 8:30 – and by 10:45, the price was shot.

There were far more bookmakers offering 16/1 today than there were that day, so I issued.

Again, at 10:45, the price is shot.

It’s an impossible situation.

My biggest concern is that if we beat connections to the price, the horse might be saved for another day.

I don’t think we’ll ever know on that one, because it’s a risky selection regardless…

I just hope that it performs like Ivy Gate did

Here’s the rationale for the tips – and a few other thoughts…

Newbury

3:35

I’ve been waiting for Grabtheglory since his last run at Leicester, at the end of January.

I put up Lord Landen that day – but noted Grabtheglory as a potential danger…

Well he didn’t materialise as one – but I still thought he ran of significant promise (despite being pulled up).

He was one of half a dozen horses still in with a chance rounding the home turn – but then he started to struggle and his jockey quickly pulled him up.

The handicapper has dropped him 8lb for that run, which is very generous,

In fact, he gets to meet the winner from that day, Valid Point, on an incredible 17lb better terms.

If you watch a replay of that race, coming round the home turn, you wouldn’t know which one you wanted to be with – I really think Grabtheglory will be able to take care of Valid Point on todays revised terms.

That said, there is a chance that Grabtheglory is a horse in decline.

Based on his old form over hurdles, he would be thrown in today – but until he finishes a race running, we can’t be sure that he retains his former ability.

If he does (and provided we’ve not put off connections !), I think he could dot up today.

Whatever, at 16/1 (or even a few points less), I think he has to be worth a small risk.

0.25pt win Grabtheglory 16/1

4:40

I don’t suppose that those of you who read the write-ups (and reviews !)  carefully, will be too surprised to see me putting up Manballandall today…

Last time he ran, I described him as the biggest eye-catcher of the season !  - and whilst that might have been a slight exaggeration, I was always going to be potentially interested in him next time out.

In fact, the issue I expected was that everyone else would be interested in him as well – however, connections have kept him off the track for a month and a half (very wise) and he gets to run today against a couple of ‘sexy’ horses from the yards of Jonjo and David Pipe.

Consequently, he’s been able to sneak under the radar a little (if a third favourite can be considered under the radar !).

In simple terms, I think he is a potentially well handicapped horse – who will relish today 3 miles trip in soft ground.

I don’t dispute that there are some dangers in the race: in addition to Obistar and Official Ben, I was also keeping an eye on Olivers Hill – plus there are a couple of unexposed sorts at big prices in the shape of I am Colin and Urban Storm.
In short, it looks a decent race – and if Manbalandall isn’t as good as I hope, then he likely won’t figure.

However, if he is as good as I think, then he could easily have a stone in hand of his current mark – and if that’s the case, I think he will win !

0.5pt win Manballandall 15/2

There is an interesting novice hurdle earlier on the card (2:30) that sees Minella Rocco taking on Royal Vacation.

The former was very impressive when turning over West Wizard at Kempton.

My only concern is that the form might not be as good as it appears, because the runner up could be overrated.

Certainly Minella Rocco has been put in very short, and I don’t think he will find giving 7lb to Royal Vacation a formality.

I would certainly argue that Royal Vacation offers a bit of value, if you can secure some of the 3/1…

Doncaster

4:50

Tiptoeaway is another horse that I’ve been waiting for (they are all out today !)…

In fact, that’s not strictly true as I tipped him on his penultimate outing.

That was at Musselburgh on New Years day - but unfortunately it rained on the morning of the race, which did for his chances.

He still ran a good race – but was unable to find extra over the final few fences.
It was a similar story on his next (and most recent) run.

This time at Catterick – and with AP on board – his chances were scuppered by late ran and he ultimately finished well beaten.

As a result of those two runs however, his handicap mark has been dropped 5lb. Simply, if I fancied him at Musselburgh (which I did !) then I have to fancy him today. He is running off a lower mark, in a lower class of race – and, most importantly, on genuinely good ground (fingers crossed !).

He also has blinkers applied for the first time. To be honest, I’m not sure about that (I hadn’t considered it something that was necessary). However, if connections feel they will help his cause, then who am I to disagree !

In terms of dangers then I can really only see two…

We were on favourite Crazy Jack, the last time he ran.

That was also at Doncaster and I felt he was never really put in the race that day.

My feeling was that connections wanted to work on his handicap mark – and it has been reduced by 3lb.

I wonder if they will consider that enough. If he ran poorly again today, he would likely get a bigger drop.
I’m honestly not sure - but with the doubt, I happy to oppose him at the price

The other possible danger is Quicuyo.
He loves Doncaster and is potentially very well handicapped. However he is now 12 years old and his level of performance is gradually deteriorating.

He would be a real danger is he bounced back to form – but I’m not sure he will appreciate todays quicker ground.

In summary, in a race that shouldn’t take much wining, I’m happy to take another chance on Tiptoeway recapturing his best form and coming home in front.

0.5pt win Tiptoeaway 5/1

In the opening race on the card, it is very interesting to see that Norse Light is likely to be turning out again.
He was a winning mention just yesterday ! – and I thought he won nicely.

He doesn’t get a penalty for that win, which is presumably why connections are considering running him back so soon.

If he does take up the engagement, and he’s got over yesterday run, I think he has a decent chance of upsetting the favourite.

Finally, it’s interesting to note that our old friend Davy Russell is back at Town Moor.
This time it is for a couple of rides for Charlie Longsdon.

Now I won’t again go on about how shrewd Davy is – but suffice to say, I suspect at least one of his rides is going to run well.

I’m not a big fan of Sassanova (his ride in the 5:25 race) – which means that Promanco in the 2:40, must be the one !

Time will tell, I guess….

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Newbury 3:35 Grabtheglory 0.25pt win 16/1

Doncaster 4:50 Tiptoeaway 0.5pt win 5/1

 

Late

 

Newbury 4:40 Manballandall 0.5pt win 15/2

 

Mentions

 

Newbury 2:30 Royal Vacation (O )

Doncaster 2:10 Norse Light (C )

Doncaster  2:40 Promanco (S )

 

Top Picks

 

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