Daily write-up - Feb 13th

There are just the two NH meetings this afternoon – at Sandown and Fakenham…

However, they are decent enough meetings for a mid-week and finding a tip or two, wasn’t that difficult.

That said, issuing them in a way that gave you all half a chance of getting on at a price, was a bit trickier…

My main problem came with Ivy Gate.

I wanted to tip him this morning, but the 16/1 with Ladbrokes was 4 points bigger than anyone else was offering.

I was pretty sure that if I’d issued at 8:30, that price would have been cut in minutes and you would all have been looking at 12/1.

I therefore took a risk and left it…

However, by the time I was next able to issue, he was 12/1 best, in one place – and a general 9/1.

Even now, I’m not sure how I should have played it.

The bottom line is that getting 50 subscribers on a decent price is a difficult thing to achieve.

The bookmakers will cut prices once it is clear there is a strong demand (particularly in a weak market).

I guess we have to consider it an occupational hazard and I will continue to do what I feel best on a case-by-case basis (and we’ll just have to accept that I won’t get all of the calls right).

Anyway, I guess it will all be immaterial if he doesn’t win !

Here’s why I think he might – plus the rationale behind the other tips – and a few other thoughts on the day…

Sandown

4:15

Depending on how you look at things, Nozic can either be viewed as a tremendous bet – or a stupid one…

He is actually a horse close to my heart, as he was a winning TVB tip at Kempton, a couple of seasons back.

That was in a race similar to todays, when he destroyed his field off a mark of 121.

He gets to run today off a mark of 104 – so there can be no arguing that he is potentially well handicapped.

He also looks well handicapped based on his first run of this season.

That was at Leicester, when he finished third to Malibu Son, with Pearls Legend just a neck in front of him.
That one had the benefit of race fitness that day - and is 4lb worse off today.
On the book, there is no way he should finish in front of Nozik this afternoon – yet he is a 6/1 shot  and Nozic is 4 times that price.

Strange…

Nozic also ran really well last time at Catterick, when he would probably have finished second, but for a bad blunder at the third last fence.

He’s been dropped 2lb for that run, which appears generous on behalf of the handicapper.

In short, Nozic ticks almost every box: he’s well handicapped, running over a trip and on ground that will suit – and appears to be running into top form – yet he’s 28/1…

For those of you who don’t know the issue, then I should maybe explain that Nozic is now 14 years of age.

Quite simply, he is a veteran – even by veterans standards !

Horses of his age, don’t win races – well, not many of them, anyway…

However, his age hasn’t stopped him running a blinder on 2 of his last 3 runs – and I don’t see why it should today.

I guess he might ultimately prove vulnerable to a younger horse – but I’ll be very disappointed if he doesn’t run a very big race – and hopefully collect on the place part of the bet, at very least…

0.25pt EW Nozic 28/1

4:45

Those of you with exceptional memories (or access to the blog !) might recall that Ivy Gate was a mention the last time he ran.

That was at Exeter back in November, when competed in a reasonable race, without ever looking likely to win.

He travelled nicely that day, before backing out when things hotted up.

The important thing to remember is that run took place when Jonjos yard was horribly out of form – most of his horses ran poorly during November.
In the circumstances, the run of Ivy Gate can probably be marked up – so the fact he was dropped 3lb for it is a bonus.

In truth, that alone might not have been enough to get me interested in him today – but the booking of a 10lb claimer tipped the balance.

As I said when I tipped Mission Complete the other week, Jonjo has a phenomenal record when he uses 10lb claimers – and I’m hoping that Ivy Gate can further improve it.
All this said, it does look an open race – so I was hoping to get a price.
However it is always diifcutlt to know what price is ‘reasonable’ in such circumstances.

I felt 16/1 was –  whilst I feel that 10/1 is about right.

As a consequence, I’ve ended up tipping him – but in a conservative fashion.
I certainly would have been annoyed if I’d not tipped him and he’d won.

Hopefully he can justify my decision to follow him even after the price crash…

0.25pt win Ivy Gate 12/1

In the opener on the card, I was potentially interested in Avidity – but the market cottoned on to him early yesterday evening.

In fairness, his form is good – and it looks significant that James Ewart has brought him all the way down from Scotland to run.

I certainly wouldn’t want to oppose him – but at 9/2, I couldn’t bring myself to tip him either…

The following race on the card is a real humdinger – and one that I felt I had to swerve !!

No less than 3 ex tips from this season are running in it (Ballybough Pat, Libery One and No Duffer); plus a couple of ex mentions (Itoldyou and Russe Blanc) and a tip from the 2012-13 season (Arbeo).

Add into the mix, my least favourite horse in training (On Trend) – plus one of Venetias (Saroque) and you have a recipe for absolute carnage on my behalf !

The funny thing is, I think the race might be won by the only horse that I don’t have a ‘connection’ with: The Italian Yob.

I won’t be betting on it though !!

Fakenham

2:50

When Arctic Ben gets beaten today, you’ve all got my permission to email me and say what a poor tips it was…

He is an 11 year old, running off a mark, which he’s failed from numerous times before; and with an unknown 7lb claimer on his back.

When I talk about ticks in boxes, he’s missing a few key ones !

However, what I do like about him, is that he’s a front runner on a front runners course – and in the form of his life.

If his young jockey can get him into the lead over the first and position him next to the rail, on the tight Fakenham track, I think he will take a lot of passing.

However, even achieving that will be no formality, with fellow front-runner and course specialist Full Ov Beans in opposition.

Clearly, this has the potential to go very wrong  - but I honestly think it is all factored into the price.

We’ll likely know our fate after 2 or 3 fences – but if Arctic Ben should happen to be in the lead and travelling well at that point, you’ll be lucky to get 4/1 in running.

The other thing I like about this tip, is that I can see reason for taking on most of the market leaders…

I don’t think the course will Canuspotit (he’s a big horse); Whilst Gone Too Far is becoming disappointing; Freckle Face is handicapped to win – but he again is a big horse and I think he would prefer more cut in the ground.

I suspect Full OV Beans is the one we should fear – but hopefully Arctic Ben will be able to burn him off !

0.25pt win Arctic Ben 12/1

The other race of interest at Fakenham is the opener, for which Gordon Elliot sends over Mr Lando.
It seems a bit of a strange move, travelling all the way from County Meath in Ireland to Fakenham in Norfolk, to run a horse in a seller.

My feeling is that the horse is unlikely to return back to the Elliot stable – and I suspect that Mr Elliot will be hoping Mr Lando is subject to a decent bid after coming home in first place.

I think it just might happen as well..!

Here’s hoping for a great afternoon ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

Sandown 4:15 Nozic 0.25pt EW 28/1

Sandown 4:45 Ivy Gate 0.25pt win 12/1

Fakenham 2:50 Arctic Ben 0.25pt win 12/1

 

Mentions

 

Sandown 1:30 Avidity (P )

Sandown 2:00 The Italian Yob (O )

Fakenham 1:15 Mr Lando (C )

 

Top Picks

 

None