Daily write-up - Feb 21st

There are 4 meetings this afternoon: Kempton, Newcastle and Chepstow in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

They are all reasonable meetings as well – and I expected them to yield quite a few tips.

However, the markets are so polarised on a few of the races, I just don’t feel the margins exist to warrant getting involved.

I’ve actually found it quite shocking, over the past few days, to see just how short horses are going in the betting, in seemingly competitive races…

On Wednesday, Milan Bound was sent off a 2/1 shot for a seemingly competitive 12 runner handicap hurdle at Doncaster.

It doesn’t help that he won – and was followed home by the second favourite Western Jo, who was a 4/1 shot.

Between them, they took out over 50% of the book.

That would be fair enough in a conditions race – but in a handicap, where in theory all runners have the same (or at least similar) chances, that is crazy.

It was a similar situation at Exeter yesterday.

Master Malt was sent off 13/8 favourite in an apparently competitive 10 runner handicap hurdle.

Again, he won, this time beating 7/1 third favourite Dawson City, with the two of them accounting for over 50% of the book…

So many of the seemingly competitive races, are clearly anything but.

You have to get on the ‘right’ horses or you’ve no chance of winning – but getting on those horses at any kind of a price, is virtually impossible.

Consequently, I end up having the duck the races – and I already duck most of the conditions races for similar reasons.

Therefore, despite race numbers, I’m left with a small number of races each day that I can possibly tip in – and I’ve still got to find something suitable to tip in those races !

Anyway, things are as they are – the situation is out of my control.

I just wanted to try and explain part of the reason why I’m issuing relatively few tips at the moment.

Of course, this service isn’t just about tips – so if you do want to get involved with the short priced handicap favourites – or indeed oppose them, then hopefully I provide you with some reasons.

Here are my thoughts on the day – and the rationale for the tips…

Kempton

1:25

I felt compelled to have a go at this race, because I can see reasons why so many of the runners won’t win.

The only problem is, I can’t see a totally compelling case for why one of them will win – so I’m playing the odds and keeping my fingers crossed !!

In terms of those I want to oppose, then:

Quite De Tresor will have an issue with the rain softened ground.

The ground may also be an issue for Roc Dapsis – and he tends to clout a few fences as well.

Polisky is a horse that you always have to take on – because he has a real issue going past other horses. He’ll doubtless appear to be swinging for most of the race – but crossing the line first is a different matter.

Cloudy Bob is a bit of a nothing horse – he should run his race – but that is likely to  see him finish third or fourth.

Whilst Flaming Gorge is completely out of form – and even running for a new stable, it would take an act of faith to support him.

Which leaves us with 3:

Comeonginger is the default selection. However, he is now favourite – and I honestly don’t think he is quite up to this class.

That said, I do think he is the one to beat – and will be a little surprised if he is out of the frame.

Josies Orders is the one I actually wanted to tip – because he could potentially hack up in a race like today.

However, I don’t think today is the day for him.

That said, if the money comes, I would advise you to cover your stakes.

Whist leaves us with Citizenship…

In truth, I do have a couple of issues with him: mainly down to his size/jumping.
However, aside from that, trip and ground should be fine – and he is potentially well handicapped.

Simply, in a race where I can find reasons to oppose most of the field – I think he is the one with least issues and is a reasonable price as well !!

0.5pt win Citizenship 9/1

3:45

I’m not sure this race is quite as competitive as number would imply, and I was quite happy to eliminate quite a few from my assessment.

I ended up with a short list of 5: Rocky Creek, Easter Day, Tenor Nivernais, Ballinvarig and Tap Night.

I was never going to tip Eater Day, simply because of his price: whilst I feel that Tap Night is just a little too ‘Enigmatic’ to be backing at 10/1…

I’ve no real issue with Tenor Nivernais or Balinvarrig and would expect them both to go well – however, I hope that Rocky Creek is just too classy for them…

I do like backing graded horses in handicaps – and there can be no doubt that Rocky Creek is a graded horse.

This time last year, he was 6/4 favourite to give 5lb to The Giant Bolster in the Cotswold chase on Cheltenham trials day.

He failed to do that - but as the winner went on to run a close third in the Gold Cup, it’s reasonable to think that Rocky Creek could have been close up in the race as well.
First time out this season, he finished runner up to Road to Riches in the JN Wine champion chase at Down Royal.

The winner of that race is second favourite for this seasons Gold Cup, again suggesting that Rocky Creek would be capable of running close to the places in the big one.

And if that is the case, then he must have a very good chance in a handicap – particular when he gets to run off a mark of just 152 (as is the case today).

Of course, Paul Nichols has gone on record as saying that Rocky Creek is being trained for the Grand National – and so will only be at his peak on that day.

I guess that’s fair enough – but the National is still 6 weeks away and I can see no reason why Rocky Creek can’t run a huge race this afternoon and again at the beginning of April.

After all, there is almost £60k up for grabs today – and I suspect it will be a lot easier to collect that, than it will be to win the first prize at Aintree…

0.5pt win Rocky Creek 10/1

In the handicap hurdle at 4:20, I think Auvergnat has the potential to go off another ridiculously short priced favourite for the Jonjo/JP/AP combination…

He’s only run once in this country, when finishing third at Taunton, earlier this month.

It appeared that not much was expected of him that day, but he stayed on in eye-catching fashion over a trip that was probably too short.

He is up half a mile in trip today – and with that run under his belt, he will take all the beating this afternoon.

I was very tempted to make him a Top Pick, as he will probably need to win today to get into one of the Cheltenham handicaps. However, he could well be sent off at less than 2/1 and I’m not sure I want to be taking that kind of price, when there is quite a lot of guesswork involved…

Chepstow

2:55

It’s impossible to be adamant in a race such as this: 4m1f, 18 runners – and we don’t even know for sure how the ground will ride.

All this said, I’m pretty adamant that Woodford Country has a decent chance – and is over priced at 14/1.

Part of the reason I say that, is because he was sent off 8/1 joint favourite for the Welsh National, on his last outing.

That’s a similar race to todays – if slightly better class.

And whilst Woodford County never really threatened to get involved that day, he was hardly disgraced in finishing seventh, beaten just 24 lengths.

Maybe the majority are considering that a disappointing run – but I would disagree.

It was only his seventh outing over fences, and the first time he had faced a double figure field, so in the circumstances I think he ran quite acceptably…

Certainly prior to that run, he had appeared an improving young stayer (which is why he was so well backed) - his victory at Newbury in November suggesting that he was going to carry on the improvement this season, that he had shown last season.

And if that is the case, then I think he has a very good chance today.

It’s impossible to be sure that he will stay the marathon trip – but the fact that the ground isn’t disparate, should help.

In fairness, there are plenty of potential dangers, almost too numerous to list !
I would pick out Tutchec and Alpha Victor as the two I fear the most – but simply, I think Woodford County has as good a chance as any – and is an attractive price as well !

0.25pt win Woodford County 14/1

In the handicap chase at 4:40, Rouge et Blanc is another of the horse that I would have been interested in today, if I could have got us a price.

In truth, I’m not surprised he is a 3/1 shot – even though I think he faces some potentially dangerous rivals.

His is a well handicapped horse, who showed last time that he is at the top of his game. Horses like that are always well backed.

I am absolutely sure that he will run a very big race this afternoon – but not quite so sure that he will win.

The problem is that the 4 horses that follow him at the head of the betting have all got the potential to beat him.

It’s true that they’ve all also got question marks over them – and whilst I would be amazed if all 4 beat him, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if one of them did.

If that does happen, the market will likely guide, close to the off…

Chepstow

4:10

The Pertemps qualifiers are invariably competitive races – and this one is no exception.

My initial trawl through the runners gave me a short list of 3 – and something of a dilemma…

First on my list was favourite, Katkeau.

He was an impressive winner of a good race at Cheltenham on his seasonal debut, before disappointing badly on his next two outings.

It all depends on which Katkeau turns up today – but as he probably needs to win this in order to qualify for one of the Cheltenham handicaps, there is little doubt, he’ll be doing his best.

At 6/1 early, he was very tempting: 7/2 now holds limited appeal – but is closer to what I expected…

Next on my list was the rank outsider, Rebeccas Choice.

He was a good winner at this course in December, off a 6lb higher mark. However that was over fences and he is probably better in that discipline.

That said, he ran well enough over hurdles the time before that – and I do think the market has under-estimated his chances…

The biggest issue is his age. He’s 12 now – and in all probability won’t be quite quick enough.

That said, I could easily see him placing.

I’ll probably back him on BF close to the off - or maybe EW at SP, if his price is big enough.

The final one on my short list – and my eventual tip, is Madness Light.

A progressive novice hurdler last season, he has been disappointing on his two runs over fences this term.

However, that has seen his handicap mark drop and he now gets to run off a mark just 3lb higher than he was successful off at Uttoxeter, last December.

He looked that day as if he was capable of reaching a much higher level – and was actually sent off 7/1 third favourite for a grade 2 event on his next outing.

Clearly things haven’t gone according to plan since then – but I thought there were distinct positives in his last time out run in a handicap chase at Sandown, particularly as he hit many of the fences.

If the return to the smaller obstacles has the desired effect this afternoon, I can see him running a very big race.

0.25 pt win Madness Light 12/1

The other race of interest at Chepstow, is the novice handicap chase at 2:30.

I felt Broadway Symphony was worth taking on in this after his last time out win saw his rating raised by 16lb.

My 2 against the field are Hada Men and Winged Crusader.

Both could have been backed at 11/2 yesterday evening, which was fair enough  - but they are both 4/1 now, which is tight.

The other issue I have, is that I really couldn’t split them and both come with risks…

If forced off the fence, then I would probably opt for Wing Crusader – but I don’t think that’s how you should feel when tipping a 4/1 shot !

Fairyhouse

Just the one horse worthy of a mention at Fairyhouse – Tri Ne Ceil, who runs in the mare handicap hurdle at 3:15.

The trouble is, she’s yet another one of those ridiculously short priced horses in a seemingly competitive race.

Clearly, many others have picked up on her as well – and the 4/1 forecast (which itself looked short enough) is actually 5/2 this morning.

I think she will win – and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her backed even shorter – but I couldn’t consider tipping her at that price.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Kempton 3:45 Rocky Creek 0.5pt win 10/1

Newcastle 2:55 Woodford County 0.25pt win 14/1

Chepstow 4:10 Madness Light 0.25pt win 12/1

 

Late

 

Kempton 1:25 Citizenship 0.5pt win 9/1

 

Mentions

 

Kempton 4:20 Auvergant (P )

Newcastle 4:40 Rouge et Blanc (O )

Chepstow 2:30 Winged Crusader (O )

Fairyhouse 3:15 Tri Na Ceile (P )

 

Top Picks

 

None