Daily write-up - Feb 6th

There are 3 NH meetings taking place today (probably): at Kempton, Newcastle and Bangor…

What a farce that turned in to !

Last night, Bangor seemed the only meeting sure to go ahead today. There was no inspection planned – whereas both Kempton and Newcastle had to survive 8:00 checks.

I therefore spent more of my time on that meeting…

At 8:00 this morning, Newcastle had ditched their inspection (as there had been no frost): whilst Bangor was suddenly under threat !

3 hours later and we still didn’t have clarity on the situation. It’s difficult enough trying to pick winners, without all this nonsense as well…

On a different day, I would probably have just abandoned.
However, it’s been a very quiet week, so I felt I should give it a chance.

Let’s hope that decision is rewarded !

Here’s my rationale for the tip – plus some other brief thoughts…

Bangor

3:15

Flying Award caught my eye on his penultimate run at Exeter.

That was in the Devon Marathon, behind Adrenalin Flight, and I felt that entering the home straight, he posed a real danger to the winner.

Fortunately (as we were on Adrenalin Flight that day !) he then began to tire and ultimately finished a well beaten fifth.

However, that was a better class race than he contests to day (class 3 against class 4) and more than that, it is a race where the form has worked out very well.

There is little doubt that I would have put us on Flying Award on his next outing, but that took place during my New Year break, so we missed him.

That turned out to be a blessing, as he ran really poorly that day – and I can’t honestly offer much of a reason why.

I’ve watched the race a couple of times and the best I can suggest is that he maybe found the Plumpton track and bit tight (he’s a big horse): the other possibility is that his jumping wasn’t fluent and that eventually cost him.

The bottom line is, that by supporting him today, we have to be prepared to forgive that run.
However, experience has taught me that it often pays to forgive a horse one bad run – particularly a distance chaser, like Flying Award.

If you look at his overall form, there is little doubt, that Flying Award is handicapped to go very close today.

His victory over Samstown, at Wincanton, just over a year ago, reads very well now. That was achieved off a mark of 121 – and he followed that up by defeating Coolking off a mark of 125.

He gets to run off just 120 today – and over a trip and in ground, that he will love.

He has actually won over course and distance, so we know it will hold no fears for him.

The fitting of first time cheek pieces will hopefully be the final piece in the jigsaw.

Certainly if they do wake him up a bit, he ticks enough boxes to go very close at a very decent price.

0.25pt win Flying Award 16/1

There is an amazing Hunter Chase that closes the card at 4:50.
It’s almost a ‘who’s who’ of ex TVB tips from the past 5 years !

Pride of place in my affection, will always go to Calgary Bay – and it would be lovely to see him come good this afternoon (for new (and old !) trainer, Henrietta Knight).

Act of Kalanisi is another one I was very fond of – and he makes his rules debut for Zara Philips (of HRH fame !).

Teaforthree, Pacha Du Polder and Hazy Tom all add to the intrigue – whilst I’m a bit surprised to see Sustainability put in as a 50/1 shot.
He was a TVB winner in December 2013 when still with Venetia.
He was never the class of most of the aforementioned – but he was decent enough and 2m4f in heavy should be perfect for him
He might not win, but I don’t see him as a 50/1 shot either…

Finally, keep a very close eye on Beast of Burden in the novice hurdle at 2:45.
He only faces 3 rivals – so won’t be much of a price (even though he is unlikely to  be favourite !).
Rebecca Curtis has brought Paul Townend over specifically to ride him - and that strikes me as significant. He is currently a 33/1 shot for the Albert Bartlett at the festival.

I doubt that will change much, regardless of what happens today – but, it’s a price I might be interested in, if he performs as I hope this afternoon…

Kempton

I will be intrigued to see how Mr Cardle gets on in the 2:30 race…

He was a Top Pick last time out, but ran no sort of a race.

He’s been given nearly 2 months to recover and will face better ground today.
However, he also faces much stronger rivals !

That said I can’t believe he is as bad as he looked last time – and if he bounces back to the level of which I thought him capable, I could see him running a decent race.

I’ve no idea if he will be good enough to win – but at 18/1, he is an EW price and could see him possibly placing…

Finally, there is an interesting looking handicap chase off at 3:35.
I would have suggested Cantlow as the most likely winner, if he’d been backed – but he’s not, so I’ll rule him out instead !

I’d be happy enough to take on the top 3 in the betting (Firm Order, Open Hearted and Baby Shine), whilst acknowledging that victory for any of them would be no great surprise.

If forced to pin my colours to the mast, I would go for Howards Legacy.
I can see no reason why he won’t run a decent race – and at 12/1, he is actually getting to a price, which I think represent a bit of value…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

Bangor 3:15 Flying Award 0.25pt win 16/1

 

Mentions

 

Bangor 2:45 Beast of Burden (P )

Bangor 4:50 Sustainability (S )

Kempton 2:30 Mr Cardle (O )

Kempton 3:35 Howards Legacy (O )

 

Top Picks

 

None