Daily write-up - Feb 28th

There are 4 NH meetings today: Newbury, Doncaster and Kelso in the UK – plus Leopardstown in Ireland.

And what a veritable feast it is !

Just 10 days before the start of the Cheltenham festival, my expectations for the day were limited – so I was very pleasantly surprised to see a host of potential betting opportunities.

In fact, there were so many, it was difficult to do them all justice.

I do wish they would spread out the decent racing across the week.

There is an excellent card at Kelso this afternoon – and it will be lost behind the televised meetings at Newbury and Doncaster.

That seems a real shame…

Anyway, I did my best to cover as many races as I could !
I could probably have issued a tip is every race at Newbury - but I settled for 4 !

I also issued one at Doncaster – and at Kelso

Here’s the logic behind the tips – plus a few other thoughts…

Newbury

1:45

This looks a bit of a minefield – and victory for a number of the runners would come as no great surprise.

I was initially drawn to Leave it Be and Provo – but they are close to the top of the market and this doesn’t strike me as a race in which you want to be taking short odds.

Instead, I’ve opted for a tiny play on an old friend – Rule of All…

Those of you who were with the service last season, might recall that I put him up when he ran at Haydock in the November.

He ran a huge race that day, looking sure to win jumping the last, only to get run out of things close home, by one of Venetias…

That was a tough one to take as we were on him win only.

He was raised 3lb for that run – but disappointed next time out and was dropped 6lb as a consequence.

Maybe there was an issue with him following that run, because he wasn’t seen again until two weeks ago, when he ran in a handicap hurdle over 2 miles at Ludlow.

Ludlow is a sharp track – and the race was run at a frenetic pace – and either Ryan Winks decided to hold him up off the pace – or he simply couldn’t go it.

Whatever the reason, he was well behind turning for home – but then he started to pick up.

He scythed through about half the field before his run was checked – and from that point on, he couldn’t find any more.

He was ultimately beaten 11 lengths – but he must have been that far behind the leading pack, when they entered the home straight.
I certainly thought it was an eye catching run – though the official assessor wasn’t that impressed, as he dropped him a further 3lb.

As a consequence, he gets to run off a mark of 122 today – and I think he can do some damage off that.

The step up to 2m4f is a slight concern – but I expect him to be ridden with a lot of patience.

My hope is that he will start picking off rivals up the home straight- and with a bit of luck, get his head in front a few yards before the line.

Just in case he doesn’t quite get there again, I’ve gone EW this time – not really my style, but I think it is justifiable on this particular occasion !

0.125pt EW Ruler of All 25/1

2:15

I quite like the look of this race because there aren’t that many I can fancy in it…

Ofcourse that’s assuming the ground remains on the soft side of good – if a lot of rain falls and it gets very soft, then we could be in trouble !

My short list for the race consists of just Roalco de Farges and Soll - though I would be fearful of Relax if the going were to be soft (I would suggest a saver on him if that is the case); whilst I could also see both Triangular and Golden Chieftain running well.

Playing the odds however, I had to choose one of the main 2 – and I plumped for Roalco de Farges.

As with Rules of All in the previous race, he’s a horse I know well.

I tipped him when he won at a huge price on Hennessey day a few years back – and needless to say, I’ve followed him quite closely since then !

He’s actually won on his only other run at Newbury – so it’s clearly a course that appeals to him.

First time out this season, Roalco de Farge put in a tremendous performance to win a very competitive race at Cheltenham.

He absolutely cantered over his rivals that day, winning pretty much as he liked.

Needless to say m the handicapper wasn’t overly impressed and raised his mark by 8lb.

He was still quite well fancied for the United House Gold Cup on his next outing but he disappointed there – and on his only subsequent run, at Chepstow.

He’s been given a break since that last run – and presumably brought back for a spring campaign.
The handicapper has relented by a couple of pounds and he now gets to run off a mark of 140 – the same mark he ran off when favourite for last seasons Scottish Grand National.

In fairness, it’s not a staggeringly good mark – but I think it ‘s a fair mark.

As much as anything this is about the opposition he faces.

I really don’t see too many horses in the race who are capable of running to their marks – let alone ones who are underrated.
I believe that Roalco can run to his mark – and over a course he clearly likes, with suitable ground and distance, I think he is the one they have to beat.

0.5pt win Roalco de Farges 8/1

4:00

This is another race that I don’t think is quite as competitive as numbers would suggest…

Clearly, top weight Sound Investment is the one to beat.

He has probably the best form in the race – and his trainer Paul Nichols, is not only harvesting the major handicap a every weekend, he has also got a great record in this particular contest.

However, he’s a 7/2 shot now – and I was prepared to take him on at 5/1…

In addition to him, my short list for the race also included Saint Raph, Royal Regatta and Ballygarvy.

The first named is likely to want the ground softer than he will get, which left the two Philip Hobbs runners to concentrate on.

I don’t think there is a lot between them: both are potentially progressive and both are stepping up to a trip that will probably suit them better than the 2 miles they have been running over.
Ultimately, it came down to price – and at double the odds, Ballygarvey had to be the call.

After a first time out win at Ascot, he disappointed last time at Sandown.

He was quite well fancied that day, but didn’t run much of a race. My feeling was that he was struggling with the pace required over that 2 mile trip.

Hopefully the step up in distance will see him in a better light today. If it does then I think he is very realistically handicapped off a mark of 138 – and in receipt of weight, can hopefully see off the principal dangers of Sound Investment and Royal Regatta.

0.25pt win Ballygarvy 12/1

4:35

I got pretty close to tipping O Maonlai the last time he ran.
That was in a competitive chase at Ffos Las at the end of last month. However, I felt there were just too many dangers in the race to warrant getting involved at a best price of around 6/1.

That turned out to be a good call, as an early blunder did for his chances and he was eventually pulled up.

I’m prepared to ignore that run and take twice the price today in a race which I don’t think looks as competitive as the Ffos Las one.

That’s not to say it looks a soft race – it doesn’t - but it is one that I think O Maonlai could be capable of wining.
I say ‘could’ because to be honest, it’s impossible to be adamant.

My feeling is the O Maonlai is a good horse – certainly a better one than he has shown so far – but there is little in the form book to back me up on that.

He did show some promise over hurdles in his native Ireland – and on his chasing debut for Tom George at Huntingdon in November – but that’s about the extent of it.

There is a chance that I could have got him wrong – but I think the odds are there today to warrant that risk.
Lets hope he doesn’t let me down !!

0.25pt win O Maonlai 10/1

I had a good look at the handicap hurdle at 2:50 – but I couldn’t eliminate sufficient of the runners to justify getting involve.

The two I was most interested in were Baby King and Royal Guardsman.

I think either could win – but both are quite risky.
You could argue that the risk is incorporated into the price – but I didn’t feel the need to be chasing tips today…

In the novice handicap hurdle at 4:00, I think that McCabe Creek is the one to beat.

However a best price of 4/1 leaves little margin for getting things wrong…

Doncaster

3:45

Yet another race which I don’t think is as tough to solve as the numbers imply…

The key to this race is likely to be the quick ground at Doncaster, which is going to be very different to the ground that most of the runners have been competing on for the past few months.

One horse who I think won’t just cope with the ground, he will absolutely love it, is Streams Of Whiskey.

After winning a decent handicap chase on good ground at Haydock last spring, he was put away until this autumn.

A disappointing seasonal debut at Ayr, was followed up by a much better performance over hurdles, at Doncaster in November.

Again, the horse was then put away, presumably with a view to a spring campaign.

He returns to the fray today – and with conditions ideal, I expect him to go very close.

He has a good record when running back after a break, so I don’t think fitness will be an issue: whilst his stable of Nicky Richards has been in excellent form over the past few weeks and Streams of Whiskey is his sole runner a the track.

The booking of Tom Scudamore also catches the eye – in short, there are a lot of interesting subtle signs !

In terms of dangers, then I think that Mon Parrain still looks potentially well handicapped; whilst the novice Drop out Jo, has more scope for improvement than most.

All that said, the one I would fear most, is Theatre Queen – assuming she consents to race !

9/1 could be a very fair price on her – but only if she agrees to set off !

However ,even if she does, I’m hopeful that Streams of Whsikey will have her measure.

0.5pt win Streams of Whiskey 8/1

Talking of Tom Scudamore, I find it really interesting that he has gone to Doncaster when he could have partner Soll at Newbury…

It appears that the main reason for that is Batavir, who runs in the handicap hurdle at 3:10 – and probably needs to win, if he is to run at Cheltenham (he will need his handicap mark to rise).

You won’t get much of a price on him – but you can almost guarantee he will be doing his level best !

The other race of real interest at Doncaster, is the handicap chase at 2:00.

I expected Ifandbutwhynot to be a relatively short priced favourite for this – but instead, Festive Affair heads the market.

As with Batavir, I suspect it is because Festive Affair needs to win in order to get the handicap rise required to run at Cheltenham.

I would still slightly favour Ifandbutwhynot  - though a best price of 9/2 seems worryingly generous !

Kelso

2:25

Vengeur De Geye caught my eye last time out in a small race at Musselburgh.

That was his first run over fences in this country and he travelled all over his rivals for most of the home straight before not quite getting home.

As that was his first run over 2m4f, it is reasonable to assume that he just lacked a bit of stamina. Consequently, I am pleased to see him dropped back to the minimum trip today.

The Musselburgh run was only the fourth time Venguer de Guye had appeared on the track in this country.

He made his debut for Lucinda Russell at Perth in August and was a comfortable winner of a fair novice hurdle.

He followed that up with a couple of disappointing runs over hurdles before turning his attention to the bigger obstacles at Musselburgh.

Consequently it is not easy to get a proper handle on his level of ability - though those 4 runs, plus his previous 7 runs at provincial tracks in his native France, suggest that his current handicap mark of 118 is manageable.

He does face some reasonable opponents today – but the 2 most progressive - Cango and Aye Well - are both going up the handicap as a result of recent wins.

It’s impossible to know whether Vengeur De Guye be able to master them – but I’m hopeful he will and felt that the odds on offer had sufficient margin to take a risk.

0.5pt win Vengeur De Guye 11/2

There are a couple of other really good races on the Kelso card – though they are too difficult to cal with any confidence…

In the novice hurdle at 3:00, I would side with the 4 year old filly, Intense Tango.

She was impressive at Doncaster last time – and gets all the allowances today.
However, she faces a couple of tough looking rivals in the form of Glingerburn and Bristol de Mai – and a best price of 5/2 offers little in the way of value.

The listed Chase at 4:10 is another potential cracker – but again it is difficult to split the market principals.

I would have stamina concerns for both Upsilon Bleu and Runswick Royal - and fitness concerns for Carlito Briante.

Consequently, the 2 to focus on are probably Cloudy Too and Bailey Concerto, with the latter given a narrow vote due mainly to his bigger price.

Leopardstown

Just a very quick mention for Snooze, who looks to put his unlucky last time out fall behind him in the 3:50 race.

I think he has every chance of doing so – but has been backed into 4/1 favourite and I that strikes me as too short, in an open looking race.

Of potentially more interest, is The Admiral Benbow in the following race on the card.

He caught my eye at Thurles in December, before disappointing a little last time out.
He’s dropped a 1lb in the handicap for that run and I think he will appreciate todays longer trip.

He’s got half a chance – and the 20/1 on offer is probably a fair enough price…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Newbury 1:45 Ruler of All 0.125pt EW 25/1

Newbury 2:15 Roalco de Farges 0.5pt win 8/1

Newbury 3:25 Ballygarvey 0.25pt win 12/1

Newbury 4:35 O Maonlai 0.25pt win 10/1

Doncaster 3:45 Streams of Whiskey 0.5pt win 8/1

Kelso 2:25 Vengeur de Guye 0.5pt win 11/2

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Newbury 2:50 Baby King (O )

Newbury 2:50 Royal Guardsman (O )

Newbury 4:00 McCabe Creek (P )

Doncaster 2:00 Ifandbutwhynot (C )

Doncaster 3:10 Batavir (P )

Kelso 3:00 Intense Tango (P )

Kelso 4:10 Baileys Concerto (O )

Leopardstown 3:50 Snooze (O )

Leopardstown 4:25 The Admiral Benbow (S )

 

Top Picks

 

None