Saturday 28 February 2015

Daily write-up - Feb 25th

There are a couple of NH meetings taking place this afternoon, at Bangor and Wincanton.

In fairness, they are not bad meetings (compared to the majority recently !) – and if pushed, I could probably have found a tip. However, I just don’t feel I should be forcing things at the moment…

We’re in a strong position – and have a very busy period on the horizon – issuing tips now, just for the sake of some action, seems a bit silly.

Obviously, I’m still keeping a close eye on things – and if a suitable opportunity does arise, I will strike.

And I actually thought there was going to be an opportunity today…

First thing this morning, Zero Visibility (Bangor 2:55) was a 7/1 shot – which was a price I would have been interested in.
However, the early market was very weak and extremely volatile (7/1 with VC, 4/1 with WH) and I felt that I couldn’t really issue at 8:30…
I hoped the market would settle on the longer price – but a couple of hours later, 4/1 is the best price available (admittedly with a NR).
I think that’s about right – so the opportunity has gone…

Also at Bangor, I was half interested in Silver Scotch in the handicap chase at 3:55.
However, there is quite a lot of guesswork – and whilst 6/1 is a fair enough price in theory, I don’t think it would be available if connections really fancied him.

In the handicap hurdle at 4:25, I could have been interested in Special Wells.
He won well on his penultimate outing – but disappointed last time out at Doncaster
However, my man on the track that day ( ;) ) informed me that the horse finished the race distressed.
I think he could be a well handicapped horse – but I don’t really want to take a risk on a horse that might have some kind of physical issue  (accepting that last time could just have been a one off).


Over at Wincanton, I could have been interested in The Game is a Foot, in the handicap hurdle at 2:40.
He was a bit unlucky 3 runs back – and also ran well last time out.
He gets first time blinkers applied today, which would have made me really interested – but stepping up 2 furlongs in trip and heavy ground, tempers that enthusiasm.
The purpose of the blinkers is presumably to make him race more enthusiastically, but if he does that, he might very well not get home in the conditions…

Atlantic Roller looks the one to beat in the handicap chase at 3:10 – but the market is wise to that.
Worse still, his main dangers are directly behind him in the betting…

Finally, I would have liked to tip Risk a Fine in the handicap chase at 3:40 – but I can’t…
I think he has much more ability than a mark of 127 would suggest – however he is an extremely head strong sort.
There is potentially an abundance of pace in todays race, so that might give Dickie a chance to settle him.
That said, I’m not sure he is currently settle-able, so it could just see him burning out sooner !
He is maybe one you could consider playing in running, if the race pans out in a favourable way...


Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.

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