Daily write-up - Feb 10th

There are 3 NH meetings today: Ayr and Ffos Las in the UK – plus a rescheduled meeting at Clonmel in Ireland.

We have just the one tip on the day – but it’s a biggy (relatively speaking !)

I therefore found it quite interesting that, despite me issuing it at 8:30, there was no significant change in the price.

I suspect that part of that was because it was a market leader – but I also think it supports my suggestion that generally, I tend to fuel a fire (rather than start one).

Anyway, interesting to observe, whatever….

I don’t intend to go too deep into the logic behind the tip, as I explained that a fortnight ago when I last tipped him (you can always check the blog, if you can’t remember details).

However, I have got a few additional comments to make – plus some thoughts on other races…

Ayr

4:20

The second fence unseat by Yes Tom in his last run at Doncaster, was one of my biggest disappointments of the season so far.

You don’t often get 20/1 about a horse that you really fancy – but we did that day and I remain adamant that he would have gone very close.

Whilst we’ll never know for sure, then some light should be shed on the matter this afternoon.

In truth, even victory for Yes Tom this afternoon won’t prove that much...

This is a completely different contest, run over a different trip, on different ground and a different course. 

More importantly, it is a much weaker race, so despite the fact that conditions would probably have suited Yes Tom a little more last time; if he can’t win today, then I suspect he wouldn’t have won last time either…

That said, I’m hopeful he will win today – in fact, I’m very hopeful…

In truth, his chance isn’t that blatant based purely on the form book (which is why we are getting a decent price), but I have good reason to believe the form book understates the situation.

This is primarily because he is running for a relatively new trainer (Stuart Crawford) and I think Crawford has improved the horse.

As well as a new trainer, Yes Tom gets himself a new jockey today – non other than AP McCoy !

I can’t see that will harm his chances (even if it won’t do a lot for his price) – particularly as AP has travelled all the way up to Ayr to ride him (along with 2 of his stablemates).

In short, I am very keen on Yes Tom – but more than that, I’m struggling to see much in the way of credible opposition…

I think we are lucky (from a price perspective) that the one/two from last years race, run again this year (And the Man and Wicklow Lad).

Punters like to latch on to that kind of thing – though the pair have been horribly out of form recently.

There is also the potentially well handicapped Habbie Simpson to consider – but I’m not sure he is as well handicapped as it might appear.

I would have considered Back to Bracka a major threat – but he has looked a horse lacking confidence the last two times he has run.

Whilst I’m happy enough to take on the 4 other runners, for various reasons (age, form, rating).

In truth, Yes Tom should have been a 1pt bet today: I like him very much: I can’t see a lot to beat him – and the price is fine.

My only issue is timing…

We’ve gone 2 weeks since the last winner, so I’m not feeling overly bullish. If this opportunity had turned up a fortnight ago, he would have been a 1pt bet.

I’ll take him winning with 0.75pt on though !

0.75pt win Yes Tom 7/2

Ffos Las

In the handicap hurdle at 3:25, I was hoping that Sandynow might not be noticed…

He opened up a 25/1 shot last night, which looked fair enough based on his form figures (PP0P) – and in truth, there is a fair chance he’ll add another ‘P’ to that list

today…

However, he is a horse with basic ability well above his current mark of 91.

I actually tipped him first time out last season, when he ran in a chase at Chepstow off a mark of 97.

He was backed from an early 10/1 that day, to 5/1 at the off – but jumped poorly and was pulled up.

He’s over hurdles today, which will help – and I suspect the best time to follow him is after an absence.

The race looks a complete lottery, so going with an outsider would have held some appeal.

I would have had 0.25pt on him at 20/1+ - but at 8/1, we’ll just have to watch…

In the following race on the card, I will be keeping an eye on the aptly name, Ugly Bug…

He has his third chase start this afternoon, having been massively disappointing on his previous two.

He’s clearly got a lot of questions to answer today – but then so did Come on Annie, when she won for the same trainer, a couple of weeks ago…

And Ugly Bug very much reminds me of Come on Annie.

The basic ability is there to win off todays mark – and he will love the trip/ground.

You couldn’t back him on what he’s shown over fences so far – but if you fancied taking a chance, 16/1 is a fair enough price…

Clonmel

The highlight of the Clonmel card is the Glenduff memorial chase at 3:40.

This looks very difficult to fathom, with it possible to make a different type of case for the top 4 in the betting.

Turban strikes me as a vulnerable favourite - even if he is officially the best horse in the race.

However, both Bailey Green and Rubi Light appear to be in decline, whilst Sadler’ sflaure still has a lot to prove.

It’s a strange situation in so much as you’ve got to try and work out where upward curves and downward curves will cross…

My inclination would be to give Bailey Green another chance on ground that he should enjoy.

He demonstrated last season that he is still very capable – and faces a much easier task today than has been the case recently.

I don’t feel strongly enough to tip him, however !

Finally, I hoped that Winter Magic might get to a price where I could tip him in the novice handicap chase at 4:15.

I thought he ran really well last time out, behind Federici and On the Shannon, at Thurles.

It’s slightly off putting that that was over 2 months ago, but I’m interpreting it as him needing decent ground…

He’s not particularly exposed, so should have plenty of scope for improvement.

At 12/1 or 14/1, I would have take a chance - but we’d struggle to get 10/1 now, which seems about right, in what looks a competitive race…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Ayr 4:40 Yes Tom 0.75pt win 7/2

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Ffos Las 3:25 Sandynow (S )

Ffos Las 4:00 Ugly Bug (S )

Clonmel 3:40 Baily Green (O )

Clonmel 4:15 Winter Magic (O )

 

Top Picks

 

None