Daily write-up - Feb 18th

There are 3 NH meetings today: Doncaster and Ludlow in the UK – plus Punchestown in Ireland.

These are slightly strange times…
We’re in a space between the deep winter – and the Cheltenham festival.

The quality of the racing and the conditions it is being run under, are changing on a daily basis.

That makes it hard to get into a rhythm – something which is desirable if you want to make your betting pay.

Both of todays UK based meetings are decent enough – and whilst there are few betting opportunities at Punchestown, the meeting run there is also of interest.

I could literally have put up tips in half a dozen races – but I chose to ration myself instead.

Ofcourse there is a danger that I will have selected the wrong options (its called Sods Law) – but that’s part of the reason why I have the mentions.
If you prefer the cases I’m putting forward for the horses I’ve not tipped, then feel free to back those instead/as well !

Hopefully, I will hit on a winner or two somewhere in the write-up – ideally with the tips !

Here’s a summary of my thoughts on the day…

Doncaster

3:25

I’m tipping Aachen in this, as much because I can see reasons to oppose all of his rivals…

The 14 year old Oscar Time is up 6lb for his last time out win over the Aintree fences.

But whether he’ll be up to defying that rise on a conventional track, is open to debate.

Both Robbie and Reaping Reward are likely to find todays 3 mile trip stretching their stamina – and both are also on high enough handicap marks, following successes earlier this season.

Burton Port and Shoegazer are both feasibly handicapped – but that is because they have been running poorly. If either bounced back to form, they would be a big danger  - but it would take an act of faith to support either one.

Alvorado is making his seasonal debut off a high enough mark – and is likely to have one race (the Grand National) in mind.

And whilst I could make a case for Ikorodu Road, he’s not a horse I particularly like – and I’ve made a conscious decision not to tip such horses…

As a result, I’m left with Aachen.

Now in truth, I could also find a few reasons to oppose him: I think he would prefer a trip of 2m4f, in heavy ground – and his stable is not in the best of form. However, I’m pretty sure he can cope with 3m on decent ground (the trip and ground kind of  cancel each other out) – and whilst Venetia isn’t pulling up trees at the moment, I don’t think there is a major problem with her stable.

Certainly, Aachen is currently on a very workable handicap mark – and his run last time out in a better contest than todays, suggest that he is coming right back to form.

He actually ran creditably in this race 12 months ago, off a mark 5lb higher than he races off today.

I think that was also a stronger renewal than todays, so his finishing position of sixth wasn’t too bad.

Furthermore, he was probably the third best horse in the race that day – he just paid the price late on for trying to go with 2 very well handicapped rivals.

There is a chance that he might get an uncontested lead today – and that will help his case. Either way however, I’m pretty sure he will run a big race – and against rivals who have all got question marks hanging over them, I think he is worth a bet at a very fair price.

0.5pt win Aachen 15/2

In the following race on the card (3:55), I was tempted to take a chance on Western Jo.

He made a very eye catching re-appearance in a decent race at Wincanton on Boxing day and over a course where he’s performed well in the past, I would expect him to run a big race this afternoon.

The issue is simply the opposition.

Milan Bound was backed as if defeat was out of the question last time out – and wasn’t seen at this best in a strange race.

Whilst top weight, Rathlin Rose, could literally be anything.

Add into the mix a few other interesting sorts (Chill Factor, Wicked Spice and Relentless Dreamer) and you end up with a race that is better watched than punted in.

That said, I expect Western Jo to run very well.

Ludlow

4:15

This is a very open race – where victory for all bar 2 or 3 of the runners, wouldn’t come as a big surprise.

That said, there are a couple in the race who caught my eye and who are available at odds, which I think under-estimates their chances.

This first of those is Kudu County.

Formally with Tom Tate in the north if England, Kudo Country was sold in November and moved to the stable of Evan Williams.

He made his debut for Williams at the end of last month in a heavy ground handicap hurdle run at Ffos Lass.

The ground that day was never going to suit Kudu Coutnry, so it was to his credit that he ran as well as he did.

Leading and apparently still going well entering the straight, he only faded out of things over the final couple of hurdles.

If that run has brought him on, then on todays much more suitable ground, and off the same handicap mark as he was successful from last spring, I think he has a very big chance.

The other one I particularly like the look of is Desert Recluse.

He also changed stables last year and was successful on his debut for Henry Oliver at Stratford in October.

That was also his hurdling debut, and today race will only be his sixth over the obstacles.

So far it has been a bit of a mixed bag – but his last time out run suggested that he could be a very well handicapped horse.
That came in a class 2 handicap in the race that close the card on Cheltenham trials day.
Despite being a 50/1 shot, Desert Recluse cantered into the lead rounding the home turn, but was just run out of things up the Cheltenham hill.

Admittedly there were a few hurdles missing that day, so the race might have suited an ex flat horse – but all the same, it was a huge performance against some top class handicap hurdlers.

The official handicapper evidently decided to view it as a bit of a fluke and left Desert Recluses mark unchanged.

Time may show that to be lenient…

There are plenty of potential dangers in the race, namely Mad Jack Mytton, Qasser, Ronaldinho and Baths Well. Though the one I am most fearful of, is probably Canadian Diamond.

That said, I think we are on 2 with very real chances – at very decent prices.

Let’s hope that one of them manages to come home first.

0.25pt win Kudu Country 14/1

0.25pt win Desert Recluse 12/1

In the handicap chase at 3:15, you won’t be surprised to hear that I was very tempted by Waldorf Salad.

We were on him last time out at Exeter, when he ran a huge race on his chasing debut.

He had ‘winner next time’ stamped all over him that day – but I just have a few concerns today.

He’s a very big horse – and what I think he needs is 3 miles in heavy ground on a galloping track.
What he gets today is 3 miles on good ground and a sharp track.

I just feel it might all happen a bit too quickly for him.

If he does get away with it, then I think he will win – but I can see 2 or 3 dangers (most notably Shuil Royale on his debut for Harry Fry) and at the odds available, that’s sufficient to stop me getting involved.

In the following race on the card (3:45) I will be very interested to see how Eastern Promise runs.

He has appeared not to get home over 2m4f the last few times he’s run, so dropping him in trip seems a logical move.

My only concern is that when a horse stops like he has been doing, it tends to signify a breathing issue. The problem only becomes apparent when a horse is really put under pressure - and the distance of the race is pretty immaterial.

If he has been failing through lack of stamina, then he is handicapped to win today.
However, if it is a physical issue, he is just as likely to stop over 2 miles as he was over longer trips.

Today should prove enlightening for him…

Punchestown

There is a cracking mares hurdle at 3:10 and Little King Robin looks very much the one to beat – despite her 8lb penalty.

That said, she’s been off the track for nearly 3 months and I suspect that today will be mainly a pipe opener for a spring campaign.

If she’s not cherry ripe, then I think that Rock on the Moor might be capable of taking advantage. She was still going nicely when falling last time out in a grade 3 hurdle – and she should appreciate today’s decent ground.

That said, both Baie Des Iles and Jennies Jewel are more than capable of running big races as well, so it’s not a race I can be too adamant about.

Finally, a quick mention for Pippa Rose who runs in the handicap hurdle at 3:40.
We were on her last time out, when she was backed down to favouritism at Limerick.
She was disappointing that day – and for no apparent reason. However she has been given over 3 months to recover so she could bounce back to form today.

That said, it’s a massive field, so I didn’t really consider tipping her…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Doncaster 3:25 Aachen 0.5pt win 15/2

Ludlow 4:15 Kudu Country 0.25pt win 14/1

Ludlow 4:15 Desert Recluse 0.25pt win 12/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Doncaster 3:55 Western Jo (O )

Ludlow 3:15 Waldorf Salad (C )

Ludlow 3:45 Eastern Witness (C )

Punchestown 3:10 Rock on the Moor (O )

Punchestown 3:40 Pippa Rose (S )

 

Top Picks

 

None