With
the weather having blown away the scheduled Ayr card, we are left with just the
one meeting this afternoon, at Plumpton…
I
didn’t have much in the way of expectations for it, so I was a little surprised
to find a couple of potential opportunities…
Ofcourse, turning potential opportunities into tips on a
wet Monday morning, is a completely different matter.
I
was happy enough with the price of Albatros de Guye at 8:00 this morning – but
was a little fearful that it wouldn’t last.
As
I’m committed to do in these weak betting racing, I waited until 8:30 before I
issued, but the price was already starting to crumble.
Needless to say, we just made things worse and as I write
this, the horse is a general 7/2 shot – exactly half the price that was
comfortably available at 8:00…
I’ve
said it before, but I don’t think there is much that can be done about these
situations.
I
could not tip in the races (and that did cross my mind – hence the minimum
stake); or I could not tip early in the races (which is probably my preferred
path – though it does make things very difficult for me time wise, with regards
to write ups).
Ultimately, I think it is down to each of you to decide
whether you want to follow these kind of tips (I don’t expect there to be many
of them throughout the season).
I
can’t condone chasing down prices – and getting the best prices probably won’t
do a lot for your bookmaker accounts.
On
the flip side, there is probably significant value to be had if you can secure
the best price (or close to it).
Whether it is worth the hassle/risk, then each of you
have to decide for yourselves.
My
feeling is that I should issue (even if it is with minimum staking), as I am
supposed to be identify opportunities for you.
Just
remember that me issuing a tip, doesn’t mean that you have to back
it…
Anyway, enough of the pre-amble – most of it will be
irrelevant if it loses !
Here
is the rationale…
Plumpton
1:55
This
really felt like a race that I had to get involved with…
The
betting is dominated by an odds on favourite, who won in a hack canter on his
stable/seasonal debut last week.
He
is being turned out today under a 7lb penalty because connections know his mark
will be raised significantly more than 7lb when the official handicapper has his
say.
In
theory then, he is very well handicapped – however he comes with some serious
downsides…
Firstly, running a horse twice in the space of a week
comes with risks – particularly when the horse hadn’t run for nearly a year
prior to that.
Secondly, it is running over half a mile less than last
week – even though it’s form prior to then had all been over further.
And
thirdly (and probably most importantly), it is being asked to carry 12st5lb in
the mud. I don’t know what the stats say, but I have a real issue with horses
being asked to carry more than 12st – and Bravo Riquet is quite a small horse to
boot…
The
question was only ever, which horse to take him on with – and, in truth, there
aren’t a lot of options !
We
know from his last 2 runs, that Six One Away is potentially a short runner
(doesn’t stay 2 miles).
I
think he has the ability to win a race such as this – but he needs to settle if
that is ever going to happen.
Top
Benefit and Willy Be Lucky both look to be of very limited ability – which just
leaves Bobbits Way and Albatros De Guye.
The
former is a 21 race maiden: whilst the latter shaped with considerable promise
on his UK debut, until falling at the second last.
That
was behind the 139 rated Chris Pea Green – and Albatros De Guye was in a battle
with the 119 rated Romeo Americo for second place when he came down.
Even
in receipt of 7lb from the eventual runner up, the suggestion is that Albatros
De Guye ran well in excess of his current rating of 87 that day.
A
subsequent run over hurdles at Ascot should have restored confidence, so as you
can see, the selection for the race all but picked itself !
The
issue was simply getting the tip out and the bet on…
Let’s just hope that those of you who made the effort
find it was worthwhile.
0.25 pt win
Albatros De Guye 7/1
The
other horse I was interested in today, was Manballandall, who runs in the
handicap hurdle at 3:35.
He
was a mention last time out when he ran a fair race at Uttoxeter.
He
gets to run off a mark 5lb lower today, which obviously makes him of some
interest.
I
guess I’ve got a couple of issues with him: firstly I would like to see the
tongue tie that he has worn in the past re-applied: and secondly, I can see 2 or
3 dangerous opponents in opposition.
I’m
not saying that Manballandall can’t win – just that I can see a few reasons why
he might not.
Hopefully he will run an eye-catching race and we can be
on him next time out…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Early
Plumpton 1:55 Albatros de Guye 0.25pt win 7/1
Late
None
Mentions
Plumpton 3:35 Manballandall (C )
Top Picks
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