Daily write-up - Jan 18th

With Fontwell lost to the weather a few days back, todays only NH meeting takes place at Leopardstown, in Ireland.

It’s a slightly strange meeting in so much as it is totally dominated by two handicaps: The Boylesports chase and the Boylesports hurdle.

Both are extremely valuable events (60K Euro to the winner), meaning that they are races that will be targeted by connections.

That gives an angle when trying to solve them, as we can look for horses that have been given preparations with today in mind (ie. horses not showing their hands too soon).

The large number of runners in these races will inevitably put some people off – but I feel quite comfortable putting a line through half the field in both cases.

If you could get 10/1 the field in a 10 horse race, I think most people would agree that you were looking at quite an attractive betting medium (which I believe these races are).

That said, pinpointing the winner still remains a tricky task, but this game is more about moving odds in your favour over the long term.

I’m sure we’ve got the odds in our favour today – lets hope we get lucky and one of the selections comes home in front.

Here are my thoughts on both races…

2:20

When assessing this race, you have to begin with the favourite, Foxrock.

We were on his at Christmas, when he was a gallant runner up in the Paddy Power chase.

He ran a huge race that day – and I wouldn’t be put off by the 7lb rise in the weights he got for finishing second. However, I am put off by the fact that he drops half a mile in trip today.
I felt it was his lack of tactical pace that cost him victory last time – and over a reduced trip, I can see that being even more of an issue…

My short list for the race would consist of Dogora, He’llberemembered, Some Tikket, Byerley Babe, Fever Pitch, Federici, Treat Yourself and Back of Mate – so 8 (of the 15).

My initial fancy for the race was Treat Yourself. But his trainer, Arthur Moore, saddles 3 in the race and jockey bookings suggest that Treat Yourself isn’t his number one. That appears to be Back off Mate – for whom, I think todays trip will be too.

In the circumstances, I decided to leave all of the stable runners alone…

Dogora is quite tempting – as I think he has the ability to win a race such as this . However, he breaks blood vessels and has jumping issues – on balance I decided to pass on him…

I don’t see many chinks in the armour of either Byerley Babe or Federici.

If I’m being picky, then Byerley Babe doesn’t seem to have a lot in hand of her mark (though a first time hood and AP on top may eek out some improvement); whilst Federici will find this much tougher than the races he’s been competing in lately.

In truth, the bottom line with them both was that they are second and third favourites – so the value was limited.

This left me with He’llberemembered and Some Tikket.

The former won this race 12 months ago, off a mark just 2lb lower than he gets to run off today.

His recent run over hurdles (which he won on a technicality) strikes me as a prep race for today. The booking on Jonathan Burke is effectively 3lb off his back for no cost (he’s a better jockey than most professionals).

Simply, the horse ticks every single box – bar his age (he is 12). However, age is a relative thing – and it doesn’t seem to have slowed him down just yet.

He has a very good chance…

Some Tickket is a different kettle of fish…

A winner twice as a novice, last term (with Dogora well beaten on both occasions) he always looked the sort who would mature into a horse capable of competing in this kind of contest.

A seasonal debut to blow away the cobwebs at Thurles was followed by a very eye catching run at Leopardstown over Christmas.

He ultimately finished well beaten that day, but travelled as well as anything, to the home straight.
He gets today off a mark 3lb lower than he started the season from – and he gets Barry Gerraghty back on top.

I can also see him improving for todays step up in trip.

There is no way he is a 16/1 chance…

Here’s hoping one of the two can come good this afternoon.

0.25pt win He’llberemembered 12/1

0.25pt win Some Tikket 16/1

2:50

With 25 runners, it’s not as easy to systematically dissect this race – but I still reckon I could get in down to a dozen and would be very surprised if I missed the winner…

The two I’ve taken against the field, are Sea Beat and Waxies Dargle…

We were on Sea Beat last time out, when he ran in the Ladbroke at Ascots pre-Christmas meeting.

He never really featured that day – but I saw enough in his performance to persuade me that he is one to stick with.

He was certainly travelling well enough in that race, until a mistake at the sixth hurdle cost him any chance.

The thing that strikes me about Sea Beat, is the way he is being campaigned…

His victory over Le Vent D’Antan last season – and his third on the flat behind Windsor Park at Galway in October, tell me that he could easily pick up an average handicap off his current mark, if connections wanted to.

However, they know that if they were to do that, he would likely be running off a mark 10lb higher and his chance of victory in a valuable race like todays, would be much reduced.

The seem intent on preserving his mark until he hits gold (by only running him in very valuable races).

It’s a similar story with Waxies Dargle.

He was as easy a winner as you will see all season, when he dotted up at Fairyhouse in November.

Granted, he was officially the best runner in that race – but it was still amazing that the handicapper left him on the same mark.

His trainer, Noel Meade, realised he had been fortunate – and again looked to make it count by targeting the Ladbroke with the horse.
However, the UK handicapper wasn’t quite so lenient in his interpretation of the form, rating it significantly higher than the Irish handicapper.
As a consequence, Meade ditched that plan and targeted this race instead.

Basically, the horse hasn’t run for 2 months so he can run in this race.
Ofcourse that doesn’t mean he will win today, but I’ll be very surprised if he isn’t giving it his very best shot !

Of the others, then I was most tempted by Katie T – but felt she might just lack a bit of toughness for a race such as this.

For those who like to play in running, I could also see Follow the Sign running a massive race from the front; whilst Forty Foot Tom looks over priced on BF (currently 60), for a horse who likes to race prominently (and is quite well handicapped).

0.25pt win Sea Beat 16/1

0.25pt win Waxies Dargle 9/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Leopardstown 2:20 He’llberemembered 0.25pt win 12/1

Leopardstown 2:20 Some Tikket 0.25pt win 16/1

Leopardstown 2:50 Sea Beat 0.25pt win 16/1

Leopardstown 2:50 Waxies Dargle 0.25pt win 9/1

 

Late

 

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