Daily write-up - Jan 26th

There is NH racing this afternoon at Ludlow and Plumpton.

It’s pretty standard fayre for a Monday – with nothing to get too excited about.

Certainly, the Plumpton card has little to commend it  (apart from the quick reappearance of Zero Visibility) – though, in fairness, the Ludlow one is better and there were a couple of races I was quite interested in.

That said, I did struggle a little to find a suitable tip.

I was pretty sure the 2:50 race would yield something – though nailing a selection down proved trickier than I thought.
Ultimately, I went for a split stake bet across a couple of horse who I think have got fair chances - and who are slightly bigger priced than I think they should be.

Here is the rationale – and a few other thoughts…

Ludlow

2:50

This looks a very open race – but I think it is with getting involved with a couple of the runners…

Firstly, Hard to Swallow.

He is potentially a well handicapped horse –though he does come with some risks.

He showed some very good form over hurdles, 3 years back, when trained by Martin Keighley.

If he can recaptured the form he was showing at that time, he is thrown in today, off a mark of just 119.

However a lot of water has gone under the bridge since then – and Hard to Swallow is now on his third different trainer.

After a spell in Ireland with Jim Culloty, he moved to Henry Daly and made his debut for him in a novice handicap chase at Worcester, back in October.

He ran really well that day to finish fourth behind Lookslikerainted and on today’s revised terms I would expect him to get the better of that rival.

On his only subsequent run, Hard to Swallow was still moving fine, when he fell at Bangor.

It was too early in the race to say how he would have got on – but I don’t think that run should be held against him.

75 days have passed since the Bangor race, but the Worcester run shows that Hard to Swallow can go well fresh.

I also like to support Henry Daly horses at Ludlow (his local course) – though generally, if they are going to perform well, they are backed pre-race (you have been warned !).
The other one I want onside is Tony Star.

Again he is potentially well handicapped horse – as his good run in the novice handicap chase at last seasons Cheltenham festival, testifies.

That run was off a mark 5lb higher than he runs off today –and he followed it up with a second to Pepite Rose at Newbury off a mark 4lb higher than today.

Both of those runs were against horses of a better class than he meets today, so I’m optimistic that he will appreciate the drop in grade.

On the flip side. there are some doubts about todays ground (he appears to prefer it quick);and the trip (though there is an argument that he might improve for todays longer distance).
Ultimately the deal clincher for me is that he is the only runner at the course for both Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson – and you all know how much I love those guys !

0.25pt win Hard to Swallow 8/1

0.25pt win Tony Star 12/1

In the following race on the card, I will be keeping a close eye on Rhamnus…

We were on him last time out, when he ran poorly at Sandown.

He’s been given a long break since then, dropped 4lb in the handicap – and wears blinkers for the first time.

The race looks an absolute minefield – but if he’s backed, it might be worth following the money.

I was slightly interested in the Kerryhead Farm in the handicap chase at 3:50.

I suspect his last time out win was viewed as something of a fluke (the handicapper only raised him 3lb for it) – but I’m not so sure…

He was a big price that day – but he showed a very willing attitude.

Provided he doesn’t go back from that run, I could see him going very well this afternoon.

Plumpton

The only race of interest on the Plumpton card, is the handicap hurdle at 3:30.

This sees the quick reappearance of Zero Visibility, under a 7lb penalty.

As I pointed out last week, when I tipped him, horses that bleed tend to run best when fresh – not when returned to the track within 4 days !

Ofcourse the previous bleeding might have been a one-off event – but all the same, at 5/2 today, I would want to take on Zero Visibility.

The trouble is, there is also an unexposed Jim Best horse in the field - and that effectively makes it a ‘no bet’ race.

Lucky Prince is potentially well handicapped today – and will likely either hack up or finish last.

Your guess on the outcome is as good as mine (but not as good as Mr Bests !)

Take him out of the race and I would have been very keen to take a risk on the top weight, Dainty Diva.
He makes his debut for Jeremy Scott this afternoon – and is one of the few others in the race with the potential to win.

Ultimately, there is just too much guess work to get involved – but don’t be put off by a big drift on Dainty Diva.

If he gets to a silly price (16/1+), I think he might be worth a risk.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Early

None

Late

Ludlow 2:50 Hard to Swallow 0.25pt win 8/1

Ludlow 2:50 Tony Star 0.25pt win 12/1

Mentions

Ludlow 3:20 Rhamnus (S )

Ludlow 3:50 Kerryhead Storm (S )

Plumpton 3:30 Dainty Diva (S )

Top Picks

None