Sunday 18 January 2015

Review of the day

A slight profit on the day, meant that this was another reasonable Saturday…

And that was thanks to the first tip of the afternoon to run, Castarnie.
I have to say, I was quite optimistic pre-race, when I saw how strong he was in the betting (sent off 4/1 second fav – and challenging for favouritism on BF) – and, as is so often the case, the market proved prophetic.
Mind you, he did have to survive a couple of heart stopping moments – the worst of which was probably at the final fence. That said, he was the best horse in the race and deserved to win.

Unfortunately the days other tips couldn’t follow his lead…

Abracadabra Sivola barely jumped a twig at Ascot. It was as poor a round of hurdling as you will see – and unsurprisingly he paid the penalty and finished well beaten.
The race was won by Baradari, who might have been tempting at his SP of 11/2 – but wasn’t that price wasn’t available this morning.

Next it was Green Flag – but in atrocious conditions at Haydock, he (like plenty of others in the race) was never really travelling.
In truth, when the ground gets that bad, the racing becomes a bit of a lottery – the horse that can handle it best tends to win.
Samstown handled it best today.

Finally, at Ascot, Acketac ran a cracking race in the handicap chase - but appeared not to quite get home. He jumped like an absolute buck –and if he can build on todays run, he will take some beating next time out.
The race was won by Rebel Rebellion – a horse I tipped back in November, when he ran poorly at Aintree – which was a little annoying…

Mwaleshi was another former tip to win this afternoon.
We were on his last time when he was hammered by Third Intention at Haydock.
Today at Haydock, Third Intention fell early – and Mwaleshi came home in front.
Fine lines…

Earlier at Haydock, Barafundle had got the mentions off to a good start, with a battling win in the opener.
There is clearly still life in him, despite his advancing years.

At Ascot, Village Vic ran a decent race – but a couple of mistakes and a lack of race fitness seemed to catch him out; whilst Land of Vic lacked the tactical pace to stay in touch when the two leaders quickened on and whilst she was clawing back the deficit close home, she had left herself with too much to do.

Whilst at Taunton, the 2 big priced mentions both ran screamers (I hope non of you did an EW double on them !).
Softsong was beaten two necks into third (behind Whispering Harry); whilst As Der Fer missed third place by a neck, at odds of 50/1 !

As for the two super-stars running today…

The New One got bogged down in the Haydock mud. I thought Sam Twiston Davis looked quite down hearted after the race – but I honestly think the run can be ignored.
The later races on the card showed just how bad the ground was – horses either handled it or they didn’t (and I don’t think he did – yet he still won !).

Whilst Sprinter Sacre was beaten by Dodging Bullets at Ascot.
Clearly any defeat was always going to be disappointing – but it should be remembered, that Dodging Bullets sets the standard in the 2 mile division this season – and Sprinter Sacre was making his comeback after more than 12 months off the course.
Some of leaps he put in reminded me of the old Sprinter Sacre – and I remain optimistic that he will be able to regain his crown in March.
It should be remembered that he’s still only 9 years old – so should still be at his peak.

I don’t know what price he will drift to – but if he goes beyond 4/1, keep an eye out on the ante post blog for another tip 

Just a reminder that I will be opening the tipping window at 6:00 this evening – and will almost certainly be tipping one or two at Leopardstown tomorrow.

TVB.

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