Daily write-up - Jan 28th

There is NH racing this afternoon at Leicester and Newcastle…

Well, that was interesting, wasn’t it…?!

I issue 2 tips this morning at 8:30, priced 14/1 and 10/1 respectively, and they are now 8/1 and 5/1 (with a R4)…

The obvious conclusion to draw is that TVB moved the early market – and I suspect there is something in that.

However, as recently as last Monday, I issued two very similar tips, in the shape of Waldorf Salad and Jackies Solitaire.

Both were 16/1 shots, issued at 8:30 – and by the middle of the morning, neither had changed in price.

The conclusion to draw from that, was that TVB wasn’t moving early markets…

Ofcourse, there is the possibility that, flushed with recent successes, you guys have decided that 0.25pt doesn’t really mean 0.25pt any more – and bigger bets are now being placed…

Who knows….?!

I’ll continue to monitoring things – and for the time being at least, exercise the option to either tip early - or late – depending on available opportunities.

All this said, one thing I should point out, is that if you had simply backed all of this seasons tips to a level 1pt stake at BSP, you would now be over 70pts up (after 5% commission).

That should make you consider whether it is really worth chasing down prices…

Anyway, I digress – I’m sure you all want to know why I fancy todays selections, so here is my thinking…

Leicester

3:00

We were on Ballybough Pat last time out, when he made his seasonal debut – and had his first run for Dave Dennis.

That was in the Lanzarote hurdle at Kempton and the very fact that Dennis was prepared to let him make his debut in such a hot contest, suggested that he through he had a well handicapped animal.

Ballybough Pat didn’t feature in the finish that day – but he travelled through the race with menace.

Presumably it was lack of race sharpness that ultimately caught him out – but that shouldn’t be an issue today.

The fact it’s his first run over fences could be an issue (though he is a former PTP winner) – and there is always the possibility he could ‘bounce’ – but I felt both of those were more than factored into the early price.
Certainly, he should have no issue with trip or ground – and there is a real possibility that he is a well handicapped horse…

In fairness, it is an open looking race – though the 2 at the top of the market, Medieval Chapel and Algenon Pazham, were always likely to be priced up too short.
They make the market for us – and whilst either one could win, neither represents any value at the early prices…

The one I’m most fearful of, is Chase the Spud.

He didn’t get home last time at Newbury – but that was in a hotter race than todays.

My issue with him last night was that he might have competition for the lead from Azure Fly.

However that one has been withdrawn from the race, which makes Chase the Spud more interesting.
On the flip side, I don’t think he wants soft ground – and there is a chance he is best when fresh.

He was nearly a saver pick – but I’ve opted to let him go. Hopefully I won’t regret that decision (personally, I’ve saved my Ballybough stake on him).

0.25pt win Ballybough Pat 10/1

4:00

Lord Landen is another who we were on, earlier in the season.
That was on his penultimate run at Kempton, back in November, when he ran an absolute shocker !

I still have absolutely no idea why he ran so poorly that day – but since then, he has come out at Bangor and run much better.

He wore a hood for the first time that day, so maybe that helped (he is quite a highly strung horse).

Certainly, rounding the home turn, he looked the most likely winner – but his effort petered out up the home straight.

Interestingly, the tongue tie that he had worn on his previous 12 runs, was absent that day – it is back on today.

If that helps him get home – and he manages to cope with rain softened ground (I’m not sure how soft it will be – but there has been rain at the track), I think he is capable of running a mighty race.

King of Glory looks the rival most capable of causing him an issue.

His last time out run at Wincanton was good form (in the context of todays race). But against that, he is winless in 9 tries – which suggest that a price of 5/2 isn’t overly generous.

There are a couple of other ex-tips in the race, in the shape of Sunny Ledgend and Champagne N Caviar. The former should run his race – but will likely find one or two too good; whilst the latter just isn’t performing at the moment.

Bigger dangers are probably posed by Truckers Steel (who is drifting to an attractive price); Valid Point (though his jumping is a concern) and Grab the Glory (who could be exceptionally well handicapped  - and I would definitely fear, if he were backed).

0.25pt win Lord Landen 14/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Early

Leicester 3:00 Ballybough Pat 0.25pt win 10/1

Leicester 4:00 Lord Landen 0.25pt win 14/1

Late

None

Mentions

None

Top Picks

None