Daily write-up - Jan 31st

There are 4 NH meetings today: Ffos Las, Sandown and Wetherby in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

When I first saw the declarations for today races, I was sure we were going to be in for a busy day.

However, more detailed examination has produced fewer tips that I expected.

It’s not that I don’t fancy horses in races – I do. However, most of the races are very competitive and the bookmakers margins, extremely tight.

I guess I could fire out half a dozen tips – and would probably on a winner and maybe a small profit.

But I prefer bigger margins than that !

Consequently, it’s just 3 tips on the day – plus a load of mentions.

I would expect some of the mentions will be worth backing today, however…

Here’s the rationale for the tips – and my other thoughts.

Sandown

3:00

It’s no surprise to see Polamco installed as favourite for this.

Trained by the upwardly mobile Harry Fry, he is chasing a hattrick today, after recent wins at Wincanton and Newbury.

He may well be capable of defying a 4lb weight rise for his latest win – but he has little in hand of Saffron Wells on the book, and at 4/1 there is no value in his price.

In pure handicapping terms, a case can be made for Imperial Leader, but he needed the run first time last season and I would rather look elsewhere for one, at a price.

I was half tempted by Invicta Lake, who we’ve been on the last twice he has run and who could be dangerous today, if he gets a good pace to chase.

However, I’ve instead opted for the novice, Anteros…

He ran in a couple of decent handicaps earlier in the season, but finished well beaten.

Furthermore, those runs were off marks lower than he races off today…

However, since those two runs, he has acquitted himself well in a couple of hot novice conditions events.

There is always a chance that conditions form might flatter a horse (because of the way races can be run) and if we were just looking at one god run, I’d be wary.
However, after running a huge personal best to chase home Blaklion at Cheltenham, Anteros followed up that run, with a creditable performance behind Three Musketeers at Warwick.

That run suggests Anteros is well worth his current mark of 130 – but based on both of the runs, the suggestion is that he is improving…

And that is always a possibility with a young horse – and something that the betting public might be slow to latch on to, until it is proven beyond reasonable doubt.
Ofcourse, by the time that happens, you won’t be getting 16/1 on him in a race like todays.
We’ll take a risk then – at a price – and in the hope that if connections think it worth booking Barry Gerraghty, they might also think they have a horse capable of going close.

0.25pt win Anteros 16/1

3:35

This looks a very open race and consequently I think it is worth taking a chance on one of the outsiders, Beforeall.

He was a big improver last season, in his first campaign over fences, when

 3 wins and 4 seconds saw his handicap rating rise from 105 to 131.

He’s not done so well this season, failing to get close in his two runs so far.

However, he’s been dropped a couple of pounds as a consequence – and should also now be cherry ripe.

I would expect him to try and dominate todays field.

He’s generally a good jumper and with his low weight (helped by his riders 5lb claim), he could prove difficult to pass, if he gets into a rhythm up front.

Certainly it often pays to be close to the pace and out of trouble in these big field handicaps – so hopefully that is where Beforeall will be  !

In terms of dangers in the race, then there are plenty !
I’ll be keeping a particularly close eye on Via Sundown, whom we’ve been on, the last twice he has run.
That said, I would see Le Reve as probably the most likely winner (though he is favourite); with Bertie Boru and Theres No Panic, two others who could easily be involved at the finish.
That said, I could also see Beforeall being involved – and he’s a significantly bigger price than all those mentioned !
Fingers crossed then !

0.25pt win Beforeall 28/1

I wanted to tip Ballygarvey in the 1:50 race, but something is stopping me..

I’m not sure what it is, because I think a price of 11/2 is more than fair.

Maybe that’s the issue – I expected him to be shorter – and I can’t see any reason why he isn’t.

Certainly, I think the handicapper was quite lenient just giving him 4lb for his last time out win at Ascot.

If he does blow out (and that’s my fear – if he runs to form, I think he’ll win), then I could see Arkaim taking advantage.

Again, 12/1 looks a fair price – though he might just lack a bit of class for a contest such as this.

In the Scilly Isles novice chase at 2:25, I would be quite keen to take on Champagne West.

Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a very decent sort - I just think that todays trip is too short for him.

There are plenty of options to oppose him with as well.

Irish Saint is the most obvious one – and he is the most likely winner. However, he represents no value at current odds (9/4).

Gitane de Berlais and Splash of Ginger have also both got a chance - but if I were to get involved, it would probably be with the outsider of the field, Grumeti..

Todays trip might stretch him – but I expect to see him travel well and mount a challenge.

The way to play it is probably to back him pre-race – and then lay off in running, around the Pond fence (3 out).

If he doesn’t get home, you won’t lose: if he does, you just might win !

Ffos Las

2:40

I have to admit, I really thought I’d found one, when I stumbled across Edmund Kean last night.

It was one of those occasions, when the more you look at a horse, the more it all makes sense.

I was particularly happy with the double digit price that was on offer – as I knew I could tip him early, thereby meaning that you should all get a price.

And then what happens ? A price crash before 6:00 ! Crazy !!

I would hope that all of you got at least 8/1 – and many of you should have got 10/1 (it was that price with Ladbrokes when I issued - and again and 9:00 this morning; and also with B365, from 8:30 this morning).

The case for him is quite simple.

He’s young progressive stayer, who will love todays trip and ground – and who has probably been targeted at todays race.

His last two runs have been n the Scottish Grand National and the Welsh grand National (both top class races) and whilst he was pulled up in both races, he ran much better than that implies.

The Scottish race was run on ground faster than he would like, and he was pulled up shortly after being hampered by a faller.

He was also pulled up in the Welsh National – but he ran with real credit in the race.

In fact, he was moving with purpose down the back straight until lack of condition presumably caught him out, rounding the home turn.
I would expect him to strip much fitter today, with that run under his belt (his first for Pete Bowen).

The handicapper has seen fit to drop him 7lb for those two runs, which I suspect is a mistake.

The icing on the cake for him, is that he is own by Dai Walters, the man who set up Ffos Las race course.

You can therefore almost guarantee that he will be ready to run for his life this afternoon – and if he is, I think he will take some beating…

Ziga boy and Global Power are the two I fear most – but they head the betting.
I would probably have a saver on the former if his price goes beyond 6/1 – but that said, I am more than happy with my position on Edmund Kean.

0.5pt win Edmund Kean 10/1

A bit like the 1:50 race at Sandown, I’ve turned the 1:30 race at Ffos Las over numerous times – and fully expected a tip to drop out.

If it did, it would likely be either Rouge et Blanc or O Maonlai.

I could far easier justify the former, who is very well handicapped and should love conditions. A 10lb claimer on top just adds to his case.

However a price of 9/2 is not what I’d hoped for.

O Maonlai is a completely different kettle of fish.

He has nothing much in the book – and I am relying on the application of a tongue tie to transform him.

If it does then I think he has the talent to win today.

Apart from those two, however, chances can be given to just about every other runner in the field !

Consequently, I had to reluctantly walk away from it…

It’s a similar story with the Welsh Champion hurdle, at 2:05.

I started with A Doll in Milan and Puffin Billy: checked out Awaywiththegreys and Williams Wishes – and ended up with Taj Badalandabad.

The worrying thing is that I might still not have stopped on one that even gets placed !

Another race to just watch, I’m afraid…

Wetherby

There are more trappy contests at Wetherby – starting with the 2:10 race…

I think Firth of the Clyde is the most likely winner – but at 5/1 he’s not a betting proposition.

Pepite Rose and Mwaleshi both have chances – along with Midnight Belle.

I don’t think Indian Voyage will win (because I think the trip is too far) – but I do think he might travel in a way that suggests he will.

If you are that way inclined, you could back him early and lay him low in running.

I would expect he Towton novice chase at 3:20 to go to one of the market leaders.
Ned Stark and Kaki De La Pree are both probably better than they have so far shown (and they have already shown themselves to be better than most of todays field).

A case could also be made for Top Totti and I might have taken a chance on her at a price - but that price would be bigger than 7/1.

I could also see Straidnahanna running well – though I suspect that ultimately he will be run down by one of the big guns.

Fairyhouse

There is a cracking mares hurdle at 1:55 – and I was sorely tempted to take a chance on Rock on the Moor.

The betting suggests that the race is between Morning Run and Carrigmorna Rock and whilst I respect the chance of both of those two, I do rate Rock on the Moor.

The trouble is, it’s nearly impossible to get a proper handle on the various form lines.

Worse than that, there are 2 or 3 other unexposed mares in the race, who could also get involved.

My plan was to put up Rock on The Moor each way – but I wonder how much I was being influenced by an attractive price (16/1).
I’ve decide to just make her a mention instead.

The final one I was tempted by today, was All the Chimneys in the 3:40 race.

He was a mention last time out and ran a cracker to finish fourth – weakening close home.

He opened at 14/1 this morning, which might have drawn me in – 16/1 definitely would have done.

However, you now can’t beat 10/1 – and there are just too many unknowns to play at that kind of price.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Early

Sandown 3:00 Anteros 0.25pt win 16/1

Sandown 3:35 Beforeall 0.25pt win 28/1

Ffos Las 2:40 Edmund Kean 0.5pt win 10/1

Late

None

Mentions

Sandown 1:50 Ballygarvey (C )

Sandown 2:25 Grumeti (C )

Ffos Las 1:30 Rouge et Blanc (P )

Ffos Las 1:30 O Maonlai (S )

Ffos Las 2:05 Taj Badalandabad (O )

Wetherby 2:10 Firth of Clyde (O )

Wetherby 3:20 Top Totti (O )

Fairyhouse 1:55 Rock on the Moor (S )

Fariyhouse 3:40 All the Chimneys (O )

Top Picks

None