Daily write-up - Jan 1st

There are 7 NH meetings today: Cheltenham, Exeter, Musselburgh, Fakenham and Catterick in the UK – plus Fairyhouse and Tramore in Ireland.

Happy New year ! 

I hope not too many of you are battling with hangovers this morning !

On the racing front, it’s a busy day.

I issued a few tips last night, to try and improve the logistics of things.

That may have back fired slightly, as I believe they are now experiencing heavy rain in Musselburgh, which is not ideal for the selection up there.

The new year begins with a dose of Sods Law – no point starting off in a delusional fashion, I guess !

There were a couple more tips this morning, making a total of 6, in 5 races.

Hopefully we can hit a winner or two, to set us off on the right foot.

Here’s the rationale – and a few other thoughts…

Cheltenham

12:45

You won’t be too surprised to hear, that my start point to this race was Sainte Are…

I was really keen on him last time, when we were on him at Aintree in the Becher chase and whilst it can be argued than he ran well to finish third that day, I was actually a little disappointed in him.

I felt he was handicapped to bolt up, so to be beaten, with no obvious excuse, was a tad disappointing.

I have to admit, there is a chance I got it wrong, and he isn’t that well handicapped; however, there is also a chance that he might not have relished the Aintree fences and managed to finished third despite them.

In the circumstances, I felt it was worth giving him one more chance - particularly as cheek pieces are enlisted today - and Paddy Brennan is in the saddle.

The other horse I want on side in the race is Our Father.

He also ran in the Becher chase last time out - and when he made his move, rounding the home turn, the race looked over. He shot 5 lengths clear at that point, but weakened over the final two obstacles and eventually finished a tired 9^th.

The argument against him is that he always runs best when fresh – but I think it just as likely, he needed the run that day.
Certainly, from a handicapping perspective, he is very well handicapped and if Tom Scu can ride him with a bit more restraint today, I can see him running a huge race.

Despite the numbers, I don’s see this as a hugely competitive race, so will be a little disappointed if at least one of the selections doesn’t go very close indeed.

0.25pt win Saint Are 9/1

0.25pt win Our Father 7/1

1:55

I’m going to take a risk here, that Ericht can bounce back from a disappointing run in the Caspian Caviar Gold cup, which was run over today course and distance, in the middle of December.

Ericht was sent off a well fancied 8/1 shot that day, but ran no sort of a race and was pulled up just after half way.

We need to be prepared to forgive him that run – but it was a strange race, in which  many of the runners disappointed, so that is not difficult to do...

At least by pulling up early in the contest, he was saved from having a tough race…

On his earlier form this season: a third behind Johns Spirit in October and a 10^th in the Paddy Power Gold cup (when a mistake at the second last cost him his chance of winning), he has every chance today.

He will certainly be aided by the better ground – and being the chosen representative of the Henderson/Geraghty team, is never a bad thing…

Of the others in the race, then cases can certainly be made for Cad du Berlais and Persian Snow; whilst I was surprised to see Darna as the complete outsider of the field – I think he will run better than his odds imply.

0.25pt win Ericht 12/1

2:30

We were on Invicta Lake, last time out, when he ran in a similar race over course and distance, in the middle of December.
He never featured that day, in a race where there wasn’t much pace and the runners sprinted for home from the top of the hill.

In truth, a similar scenario could unfold today, as non of the runners are guaranteed to put the pace to the race.

That said, I learnt a long time ago, that when it seems obvious in advance, how a race will be run, it rarely works out that way in practise…

Both First Fandango and Southfield Vic are possible pace setters and with a bit of luck, either (or ideally both !) of their jockeys will see an opportunity to steal the race and will force a decent gallop.

If that does happen, then I think Invicta Lake has a very good chance of pouncing late and taking the prize.
If there is indeed no pace in the race, then Paddy Brennan will do well to get him involved when it matters.

Lets hope for a bit of a burn up, then !!

0.25pt win Invicta Lake 12/1

The rest of the Cheltenham card, is truly fascinating (and infinitely better than the Saturday card at the December meeting).

In the Dipper novice chase at 1:20, don’t discount outsider of the field, Top Totti…

She may not be quite good enough to win, but I can see her running much better than her 25/1 odds would imply.

I suspect that one of the market leaders will ultimately get the better of her – but she could be worth a small EW interest (its just a shame there are only 7 runners)

The conditions hurdle at 3:05 is another absolute cracker-jack.

Again, I could be interested in one of the outsiders – but this time as a back to lay in-running option.
Olofi ran really well last time out behind The New One and Vaniteux.

He probably won’t reverse the form with the runner up today – but he might look like he will, at some point in the race.

Certainly, there is plenty of scope in his current price of 40/1, for him to trade a good deal shorter in running.

Musselburgh

1:35

I could have been very keen on Tiptoeaway today – but I’m fearful that rain may spoil things for him (and us !).

He is a horse with a marked preference for decent ground and I suspect that his connections have been eying this valuable prize for quite some time (the ground at Musselburgh is invariably good).

I guess we won’t know for sure until the off – but if it has turned soft by that time, expect to see a big drift in his price…

If it somehow manages to stay quick however, then I think he has a huge chance.

He has already won a couple of handicap off marks higher than he races off today (the second of them off a mark 8lb higher) – and he showed on his seasonal reappearance at Wetherby, that he is still capable of a big performance.
He ultimately finished last that day, but raced with a god deal of zest, over a trip too short and on ground too soft.,

That run should have put him spot on for today - provided the ground is in his favour.

The other one of interest in the race, is Quito du Tresor. We were on him last time, when he was massively disappointing at Aintree.

I really don’t know what to make of that performance – and whilst I might be prepared to ignore it, I think there is a chance that he is just in decline. He is also another who would prefer quick ground.

On balance then, I decided to pass on him.

0.25pt win Tiptoeaway 14/1

I did consider, yesterday evening, tipping Hawk High in the 2:10 race.

It was therefore with interest, that I noted Pricewise had put him up…

Even with top weight, a case can be made for him (he’s big enough for the weight not to be much of a concern), however there are plenty of other decent sorts in the race – and the value of his form isn’t completely proven.

He’s another who won’t appreciate any rain - so on balance, I‘m happy for him just to be a mention.

Exeter

1:45

I got very close to tipping Sunny Ledgend on the final day of racing before Christmas.

He ran at Bangor that day, in a low grade chase and having been very well backed (8/1 early to 7/2 at the off), preceded to jump and travel like a dream until being worn down between the last two fences by one of Venetia’s.

It was a huge performance from Sunny Ledgend and one that showed he is on the top of his game.

In fairness, his two previous outings this season, had hinted he was on the way back: in the first of them, he ran promisingly over hurdles at Towcester – and he followed that with a similar run over fences at Wincanton.

Yet despite that, he finds himself on a mark 8lb lower than he started the season from – a mark which itself, is very lenient compared to the one he operated from when at his prime.

His sixth place to Same Difference at the 2013 Cheltenham festival came off a mark of 130 – so you can see that todays mark of 108 leaves him plenty of room for manoeuvre.

He is flexible in terms of ground requirements, and whilst I personally think he is better over slightly shorter, the form book suggests that he should have no issue with todays trip of 3 miles.

Certainly, provided the ground doesn’t get soft, I’m not too worried about it.

There is plenty of pace in the race - but he can jump and travel, so that shouldn’t be an issue.

In short, he has ticks in lots of boxes; is potentially well handicapped - and in very good form.

What isn’t there to like about him ?!

0.5pt win Sunny Ledgend 9/1

Tramore

The other horse I considered tipping today, is Foildubh, who runs in the chase at 2:15…

On official ratings, he is the second best horse in the race – and I can see issues with the market leaders…

Today trip of 2m6f might be a bit of a stretch for him, but in the shape of Paul Townend, he has a jockey in the saddle who will give him every chance.

I’ll be amazed if he doesn’t run well – and I would certainly expect him to be in the first 3 home.

However, I just have a feeling that something will beat him – even though I don’t know what.

A couple of points more and I would have taken a risk – but at 7/1, I just don’t see sufficient margin.
A very strong mention non-the-less…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

Cheltenham 12:45 Saint Are 0.25pt win 9/1

Cheltenham 12:45 Our Father 0.25pt win 7/1

Cheltenham 1:55 Ericht 0.25pt win 12/1

Cheltenham 2:30 Invicta Lake 0.25pt win 12/1

Musselburgh 1:35 Tiptoeaway 0.5pt win 14/1

Exeter 1:45 Sunny Ledgend 0.5pt win 9/1

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Cheltenham 1:20 Top Totti (S )

Cheltenham 3:05 Olofi (C )

Musselburgh 2:10 Hawk High (C )

Tramore 2:15 Foildubh (P )

 

Top Picks

 

None