Daily write-up - Jan 29th

There are 3 NH meetings today: Wincanton and Towcester in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland.

3 meetings there might be, but betting opportunities are relatively thin on the ground and it was my intention to take the day off.

However there is one race that caught my attention – and after due consideration, I’ve decided to get involved with it.

I was initially put off by the fact I couldn’t find anything at a double figure price that I really fancied – but I guess that’s not going to happen every day !

If we can eek out a profit from todays race I’ll be a happy enough – a number of small steps are just as good as an occasional giant stride !

Here’s the rationale for the tips – plus a few other thoughts…

Wincanton

3:10

When I first looked at his race yesterday evening, there was one horse that really caught my eye: Drumshmabo.

I noted him on his last run at Ascot in November, when he finished behind stablemate Niceonefrankie.

He looked like a horse ready to strike next time –and duly entered my notebook.

However, I didn’t expect it to be nearly February before he next appeared on the racecourse – and that is my main issue with him.

Not that I think he can’t go well fresh – he can: just why has he not been sighted for so long ? (it’s not really Venetia’s style).
Assuming he turns up today in top form, then I think he will take a lot of beating.
He is handicapped to just about win –and whilst there is a slight question mark over the trip in todays heavy ground, I think he will cope with it.

I was a little disappointed that he only opened at 8/1 yesterday evening – and even more disappointed that he had shortened to 13/2 this morning ! However, the reality is, there are good reason for opposing most of his rivals (ground, form or handicap mark) – and the race favourite, also looks opposable.

One who is not so easily dismissed, is Bincombe.

We were on him when he won at Aintree in December and he runs off a mark just 3lb higher today.

I felt his Aintree win was worth more than 3lb and whilst he has subsequently disappointed at Lingfield, that was in desperate ground – and he apparently lost a shoe during the race.

In short, I think that run can be ignored.

We are also going to have to forgive his previous run at this course, when he ran out ! But that was prior to his Aintree win – and he has won at Wincanton in the past, so again, I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt.

In truth, it is difficult to know whether he is as well handicapped as Drumshambo – but he almost certainly has more scope for improvement.

In a race, where I could only make a case for 2 or 3 others (St Raph being the one I’d fear most), then I felt it worth getting involved with a split stake bet.

0.25pt win Drumshambo 13/2

0.25pt win Bincombe 10/1

There is a very tight looking handicap chase at 2:10.

A case of sorts can be made for all of the runners, which probably explains why the outsider of the 5 strong field is currently a 9/2 shot !
Crookstown is the one I fancy most. He’s 4/1,which is probably fair – but hardly compelling…

The other race of interest on the Wincanton card, is the handicap hurdle at 3:40.

Again, this looks quite an open event – but I was a little surprised to see both Rothman and Dubawi Island put in as 14/1 shots.

Whilst it’s true that both have questions to answer, they represent top connections and are probably a bit of value at their current best prices.

Not quite worthy of tipping, however…

Towcester

The most interesting race on the Towcester card, is the handicap chase at 2:20.

We were on Herecomesthehollow last time out, when he finished second at Chepstow.

He looked an extreme stayer that day - and I wonder if 3 miles will be far enough for him (even at Towcester).
I suspect the race will go to one of the market leaders. Take the Mick won well at Warwick last week, but his 7lb penalty means he’s got to carry over 12 stone – I never like that.

Consequently, I would go with Newton Thistle. He was one of easiest winners you’ll see all season on his penultimate outing – and even off a mark 19lb higher today, I would expect him to take the beating.

Thurles

The novice chase that opens the card is a very interesting contest….

Drumlee is a worthy favourite – but he is opposed by at least 3 useful rivals in the shape of Davinias Tip, Elsie and Like it A Lot.

There is also Saddlers Luck in the race – and he remains one to keep an eye on (though more with a view to handicaps in the future).

It’s not a race I could have a strong view on – but the fitting of a hood to Davinias Tip looks an interesting move.
She is a mare who has tended to run freely – if the hood helps her conserve some of her energy for later in the race, she could be difficult to beat.

I would be hopeful that Pencilhimin could bounce back to form in the handicap hurdle at 3:35.

He was disappointing over fences last time out – but prior to that had been running very well in some decent handicap hurdles (winning a couple of them).

His mark has risen since the start of the season, so he won’t find things easy today – but a 7lb claimer on his back should help.

He can be backed at 7/1, which seems a fair – if not overly generous – price…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Early

None

Late

Wincanton 3:10 Drumshambo 0.25pt win 13/2

Wincanton 3:10 Bincombe 0.25pt win 10/1

Mentions

Wincanton 2:10 Crookstown (O )

Wincanton 3:40 Rothman (S )

Wincanton 3:40 Dubawi Island (S )

Towcester 2:20 Newton Thistle (O )

Thurles 1:35 Davinias Tip (O )

Thurles 3:35 Pencilhimin (O )

Top Picks

None