Daily write-up - Jan 9th

There are NH meetings today at Doncaster and Huntingdon…

It’s always strange when I take a few days off in the middle of the season.

I get myself so immersed in the racing, that stepping outside of it, even for a few days, makes returning a tricky business.

Clearly, it’s not healthy to maintain such a level of intensity for 5 months – so I need to have a bit of a break – and post Christmas/New Year is a good time to take it.

However, the difference in the racing this week, compared to the Christmas/New Year period, is ridiculous…

It’s a completely different landscape, which is part of the reason why I’ve been so loathed to tip over the past few days.

Gone are the good horses, competitive fields and early prices – replaced by poor horses, uncompetitive fields – and prices that nobody would get, if I were to tip !

It’s literally like a different game.

That said, it’s not something I have any control over, so we just have to make the best of it…

Todays 2 meetings are similar to the ones that have proceeded it this week – nothing spectacular !

In fairness, the Doncaster card sees the appearance of a few decent horses – helped no doubt, by the good ground.

There’s only one horse that I’m interested in getting involved with: Pepite Rose.

The question was how best to play her…

At 5/2, she would have been at tip – but at the current 2/1, I’m making her a Top Pick, and hoping she drifts to 5/2 !

Just a reminder that as it’s a Friday, I will open the tipping window at 6:00 this evening (though the prospect of significant overnight rain is likely to temper my enthusiasm to tip).

Here are my thoughts on the day…

Doncaster

The mares chase at 2:05, looks to be between Petite Rose and Highland Retreat.

I can understand the support for the latter (an improving mare, trained by Harry Fry, ridden by AP) – but I’m pretty sure that a peak form Pepite Rose would laugh at her.

Part of the reason I say that is because Pepite Rose will be far better suited by todays test (2m4f on decent ground – Highland Retreat wants further and softer); and part of the reason is because I simply think that Pepite Rose is the more talented animal.

There is a slight worry in so much as Pepite Rose has not shown her best in her 2 races this season – but they were much better class contests that todays and over 2 miles (I think she will appreciate the return to 2m4f today).

To my mind, Pepite Rose should be around even money – so 2/1 has to represent significant value.

I guess I’m a little wary because everyone should know this – so if the market is contradicting it, the suggestion is that there is good reason.
On the other hand, Highland Retreat is the one with the ‘sexy’ connections, so I’m hoping that is why she has been made favourite !

All things being equal, I think Pepite Rose should win – so I’m making her a Top Pick and keeping my fingers crossed !

There are some interesting novice events earlier on the card.

In the opener, I could have been interested in Work in Progress, but I take the absence of Hary Skelton in the saddle, as a big negative.

Whilst in the novice chase at 1:00 Josses Hill should prove too good for his rivals.

I wasn’t impressed by his chasing debut, but his hurdles form stands up to the closest scrutiny and if  he jumps round OK, he should be too good for his rivals.

I would expect Earth Amber to complete a double for Henderson/Gerraghty in the handicap hurdle at 3:15 – though his market weakness is concerning.

Whilst in the finale, I might be tempted to take a chance on Vinegar Hill upsetting short priced favourite, Steel Summit…

Huntingdon

There’s not too much to get excited about on the Huntingdon card.

The best bet is probably in the opening contest, where Belmount is getting to almost be a backable price (13/2).
That said, he is quite speculative – and speculation plus market weakness tends not to be a particularly good combination !

In the handicap chase at 1:55, I thought Merchant of Milan was the most likely winner.
However, his case is hardly solid – and 10/3 is not a remotely tempting price…

Killala Quay is far more tempting at 5/2 in the 4 runner handicap chase at 3:05.

That said, tactics could easily play a part in this race, so I wouldn’t want to get involved at a short price.

Finally, I have to be interested in Catwalk Babe in the bumper that closes the card – because Harry Skelton has chosen to ride it (his only ride of the day) instead of go to Doncaster…

Obviously, it is all guesswork (the horse is making its racecourse debut), so it could never be a tip – but a price of 4/1 is moderately tempting in what is unlikely to be the hottest bumper ever run…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

 

Early

 

None

 

Late

 

None

 

Mentions

 

Doncaster 12:30 Work in Progress (C )

Doncaster 3:15 Earth Amber (P )

Doncaster 3:45 Vinegar Hill (O )

Huntingdon 12:45 Belmount (S )

Huntingdon 3:05 Killala Quay (C )

Huntingdon 3:35 Catwalk Babe (S )

 

Top Picks

 

Doncaster 2:05 Pepite Rose