The
abandonment of Fontwell a few days ago, means that the only racing today, is at
Leopardstown and Sedgefield…
That
said, the Leopardstown racing is absolutely top class – with two grade 1 events;
a grade 2; a couple of decent handicaps; and a couple of decent novice
events.
You
couldn’t ask a lot more from a card !
Sedgefield on the other hand, is decidedly mundane, with
just the one race of any interest…
I
hoped to put up 2 or 3 tips – but the market isn’t playing ball and I’m not
prepared to go chasing prices – so we’ve ended up with just the one.
I
probably fancy it a bit more than the staking implies – but I don’t like to go
in heavy on the Irish handicaps.
If
it wins, I’ll happily take a couple of points profit on the day.
Here’s the rationale – and a some thoughts on a few of
the days other races…
Leopardstown
2:25
We
were on Third Opinion last time out, when he ran in an amateur riders event at
the Leopardstown Christmas meeting…
He
was a speculative pick at a relatively big price that day – but he ran a race
chock full of promise.
Over
a trip of 2m5f, he absolutely tanked his way through the race, with his young
jockey appearing to struggle to keep a hold of him.
He
moved like the best horse in the race – and jumped into the lead at the third
last, but his early exertions then took a toll and he was beaten, entering the
home straight.
My
feeling at the time was that he either needed dropping back in trip – or a
stronger jockey in the saddle: and today he gets both…
I
can certainly see Andy Lynch clicking with the horse. He remains a jockey that I
have a lot of time for (despite him recently losing the job of stable jockey to
Henry de Bromhead).
He
tends to excel on strong travelling animals – and in Third Opinion, I am hopeful
he will be able to prove that point.
His
opponents look much of a muchness – with the exception of Champagne
James…
He
looks like a potentially well handicapped horse: however he also looks like a
horse who needs considerably further than todays 2m1f trip.
His jumping can be ponderous – and he has a tendency to get outpaced.
His jumping can be ponderous – and he has a tendency to get outpaced.
If
he’s still in contention rounding the home turn, I will be concerned - but
hopefully Third Opinion will have burnt him off by that point !
0.25pt win Third Opinion 9/1
The
preceding race on the card is the Irish Arkle, and I can honestly say, I’ve
never seen a more fascinating 3 horse contest !
For
the first time in his life, Un De Sceaux should be really tested.
He’s
won 10 of his 11 NH races – and fell when clear in the other.
He
is probably an exceptional talent – but we can’t be absolutely sure of
that.
Provided all 3 runners get round today, then we should
find out just how good he is.
Gilgamboa and Clarcam are not slouches. In fact, both
have the potential to be close to the best novice chasers around.
If
Un De Sceaux puts them to the sword in the same way he has every other horse
that has faced him, then I will be prepared to proclaim him as the real
deal.
Truly a race to savour…
The
other grade 1 on the card, is the Irish Champion hurdle (2:45)
Once
again, it looks a match between Hurricane Fly and Jezki.
The
Fly has come out on top in their 2 previous encounters this season, but Jezki is
getting closer to him…
Again, I see it almost as a toss of the coin as to which
one will come out on top today.
I
would probably just favour the Fly – but when you are talking such small
margins, a good jump or a smart piece of jockeyship is likely to make all the
difference.
Whilst I do expect it to be a straight battle between the
big two, I will also be fascinated to see how both Arctic Fire and Fiscal Focus
get on.
The
former seemed to raise his game dramatically last time out, when a close third
behind Hurricane Fly and Jezki; whilst it is fascinating to see the latter
contesting the race, as he is just a 4 year old…
In
the handicap chase at 3:50, I had half a mind to tip More Madness.
He
ran an absolute screamer in the Paddy Power chase at the Leopardstown Christmas
meeting, just weakening out of things close home.
A
drop back in trip of 3 furlongs will help him and I can see him running a huge
race today
However, he faces a couple of opponents who could be
exceptionally well handicapped, in the shape of Bishops Road and
Heathfield.
By
my reckoning the former could easily have a stone in hand of his mark – and it’s
anyone’s guess with the latter (though he could easily be the same).
More Madness was 14/1 last night – and with a slight drift, I would have put him up EW (instead, he’s shortened to 10/1).
More Madness was 14/1 last night – and with a slight drift, I would have put him up EW (instead, he’s shortened to 10/1).
However, I would be fearful that we would only be playing
for a place – and that generally isn’t my style.
It’s
a shame, because against ‘normal’ opposition, I could be very keen on
him…
Sedgefield
The
only race of interest on the Sedgefield card, is the handicap chase at
3:35.
I
was quite keen to take on favourite Big Water in this – and after lots of time
looking at the race, narrowed it down to Grey Life and Distime.
I
had a slight preference for Grey Life and he was a weak looking 7/1 shot early
this morning.
However, BF suggested he should be at least 8/1 – and possibly even 9/1.
However, BF suggested he should be at least 8/1 – and possibly even 9/1.
I
decide to wait and see how things developed, but within 10 mins of me issuing
the early tip, his price crashed to 5/1.
I
don’t know whether it was tipster inspired money or connections inspired money –
but it was quite a dramatic move.
If
it is sustained to the off, I think he will take some beating.
If
he drifts back out, I wouldn’t be so confident.
Either way, all we have on offer now is 5/1 – and that
holds little appeal in an open race…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!
TVB.
TVB.
Tips
Early
Leopardstown 2:10 Third Opinion 0.25pt win 9/1
Late
None
Mentions
Leopardstown 3:50 More Madness (O )
Sedgefield 3:35 Grey Life (O )
Top Picks
None
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